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Paide vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Date: 23/09/2023
Time: 11:30
Final 3-0
Paide
Paide
Vs
45%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D00D02L40W10W11D63W00D20W01LH·FLO07/07A·B3612/07H·B3620/07A·KUR23/07A·LAA06/08H·TAL12/08H·TAM19/08A·TRA27/08H·KAL03/09A·FC 16/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.871.001.071.070.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.450.910.671.000.200.80
vs Weaker (19)1.370.841.221.111.500.60
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W11D40W11D11D03L33D00D40W31WA·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07H·FC 06/08H·KAL19/08A·TAM26/08A·LAA02/09H·KUR17/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.331.071.731.400.93
vs Stronger (13)0.921.851.252.250.401.20
vs Similar (17)1.470.940.861.141.900.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Paide goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
08.9%7.1%4.5%1.6%0.4%
110%14%6.7%2.4%0.7%
28.4%9.1%5.0%1.8%0.5%
34.2%4.5%2.4%0.9%0.2%
41.5%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Paide is 0.14 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.33).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Paide is 0.28 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Paide is 0.25 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.19).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D20W00D00D33D00D10W00DH·FLO07/07A·B3612/07H·B3620/07A·KUR23/07A·LAA06/08H·TAL12/08H·TAM19/08A·TRA27/08H·KAL03/09A·FC 16/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.400.470.530.470.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.090.360.170.330.000.40
vs Weaker (19)0.680.420.670.670.700.20
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L20W00D00D02L02L00D20W10WA·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07H·FC 06/08H·KAL19/08A·TAM26/08A·LAA02/09H·KUR17/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.600.400.670.530.53
vs Stronger (13)0.311.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.590.290.290.290.800.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L20W10W11D30W00D10W01LH·FLO07/07A·B3612/07H·B3620/07A·KUR23/07A·LAA06/08H·TAL12/08H·TAM19/08A·TRA27/08H·KAL03/09A·FC 16/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.530.530.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.550.500.670.200.40
vs Weaker (19)0.680.420.560.440.800.40
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W20W11D11D01L31W00D20W21WA·TAM27/06H·PAI30/06A·TRA08/07A·TAL22/07A·FLO28/07H·FC 06/08H·KAL19/08A·TAM26/08A·LAA02/09H·KUR17/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.671.070.870.40
vs Stronger (13)0.620.850.751.250.400.20
vs Similar (17)0.880.650.570.861.100.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €1m more valuable than Vaprus's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
PAI wins
2
Draws
1
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Vaprus · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/23AVaprus Vs PAI1-1
21/05/23HPAI Vs Vaprus0-1
23/04/23AVaprus Vs PAI2-2
10/09/22AVaprus Vs PAI1-2
17/08/22HPAI Vs Vaprus4-2
27/04/22HPAI Vs Vaprus6-2
01/03/22AVaprus Vs PAI1-3

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI1-0
03/09/23HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
27/08/23ATrans Narva Vs PAI0-0
19/08/23HPAI Vs Tammeka6-3
12/08/23HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
06/08/23ALaagri Vs PAI0-1
23/07/23AKuressaare Vs PAI0-4
20/07/23HPAI Vs B36 Torshavn0-2
12/07/23AB36 Torshavn Vs PAI0-0
07/07/23HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn0-0

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23HVAP Vs Kuressaare3-1
02/09/23ALaagri Vs VAP0-4
26/08/23ATammeka Vs VAP0-0
19/08/23HVAP Vs Kalju Nomme3-3
06/08/23HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-3
28/07/23AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP1-1
22/07/23ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-1
08/07/23ATrans Narva Vs VAP0-4
30/06/23HVAP Vs Paide1-1
27/06/23ATammeka Vs VAP2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWL1.42
HomeDLDWW1.35
AwayDWWDL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%35%33%
AVG goals2.342.352.33
Over 1.5 %60%58%62%
Over 2.5 %36%35%38%
Over 3.5 %18%15%21%
Scored1.401.421.38
Conceded0.940.920.96
BTTS42%35%50%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners7.808.007.50
Cards7.339.004.00
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWW0.88
HomeLDLDW0.76
AwayWDDDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%16%28%
AVG goals2.883.042.72
Over 1.5 %68%72%64%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.041.041.04
Conceded1.842.001.68
BTTS48%56%40%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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