Paide’s recent win over Nõmme United fuels the model’s confidence that they will secure the home victory, reflected in a 67 % probability of a win, 20 % chance of a draw and 13 % for an away win. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total goals sit at 3.3, with the most likely total of three goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Paide, carrying a 10.2 % probability. Paide’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 3.12 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded, while Vaprus, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.12 scored and 2.12 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Under 7.5 at 98.2 %, Home +2 handicap at 95.4 %, Under 6.5 at 95.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.8 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 90.0 %, Under 5.5 at 88.8 % and Home or Draw at 86.7 %. All selections are presented with their exact probabilities.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paide win
66.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win
13.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.07
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.78
1.75
2.00
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
0.95
3.20
0.40
1.44
1.56
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.47
2.50
1.08
1.89
1.72
vs Stronger (18)
1.94
1.67
2.14
1.43
1.82
1.82
vs Similar (12)
2.42
1.17
3.00
0.60
2.00
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
7.7%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
7.5%
2-2
4.8%
0-0
4.5%
Paide goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
2.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
1
7.7%
9.2%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
9.9%
9.7%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.6%
7.5%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.4%
4.4%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Paide is 1.00 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Paide is 0.38 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Paide is 0.45 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paide or Draw
86.3%
Avg Implied -
66%
20%
14%
covers Paide + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide or Vaprus
80.1%
Avg Implied -
66%
20%
14%
covers Paide + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vaprus
33.7%
Avg Implied -
66%
20%
14%
covers Draw + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paide over/under 0.5
Over
90.2%
Under
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Paide, so a minus line means Paide give that many goals of a start and Vaprus receive them. At -1, Paide must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paide win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paide)
Paide -2
24.6%
Draw -2
19.9%
Vaprus +2
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Paide)
Paide -1
44.5%
Draw -1
21.9%
Vaprus +1
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Paide)
Paide +1
86.3%
Draw +1
8.8%
Vaprus -1
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Paide)
Paide +2
95.1%
Draw +2
3.6%
Vaprus -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.47
0.47
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.58
1.80
0.30
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.42
0.75
1.06
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.89
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.82
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.92
1.80
0.40
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
1.20
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.11
1.00
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.00
0.37
1.40
0.10
0.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.08
0.33
0.83
0.72
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.78
1.00
0.43
0.82
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.25
1.20
0.20
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Paide's squad is €1m more valuable than Vaprus's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Paide and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Paide and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Paide and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United