This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
1.25
1.31
0.93
1.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.44
1.29
1.36
1.09
1.55
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.5%
2-0
12.2%
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
3-0 ✓
7.3%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.9%
Palermo goals ↓
Avellino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
4.9%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
7.3%
5.7%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.3%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Palermo goals (down), columns = Avellino goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Empoli
2.02
Frosinone
1.71
Parma
1.71
Palermo
1.69
Bari
1.60
Venezia
1.60
Cittadella
1.57
Perugia
1.43
Foggia
1.38
Spezia
1.26
Carpi
1.24
Salernitana
1.21
Cesena
1.19
Cremonese
1.14
Pescara
1.14
Avellino
1.14
Brescia
1.14
Ascoli
1.10
Virtus Entella
1.05
Novara
1.05
Pro Vercelli
0.95
Ternana
0.88
Palermo is 0.55 points better than Avellino in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Empoli
2.10
Perugia
1.60
Foggia
1.57
Frosinone
1.55
Ternana
1.48
Cittadella
1.45
Bari
1.40
Palermo
1.40
Parma
1.36
Venezia
1.33
Cesena
1.31
Salernitana
1.21
Pescara
1.19
Avellino
1.17
Cremonese
1.14
Pro Vercelli
1.12
Spezia
1.10
Novara
1.00
Brescia
0.98
Virtus Entella
0.98
Ascoli
0.95
Carpi
0.76
Palermo is 0.24 goals better than Avellino in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Parma
0.88
Palermo
0.93
Venezia
1.00
Spezia
1.07
Carpi
1.10
Cremonese
1.12
Frosinone
1.12
Bari
1.14
Cittadella
1.14
Empoli
1.17
Brescia
1.24
Novara
1.24
Virtus Entella
1.29
Perugia
1.38
Salernitana
1.38
Ascoli
1.43
Avellino
1.43
Cesena
1.45
Pescara
1.52
Foggia
1.62
Pro Vercelli
1.67
Ternana
1.83
Palermo is 0.50 goals better than Avellino in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Palermo
For 4.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.1 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Avellino
For 4.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.1 · Against 17.3 · Total 35.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Palermo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.1
9.4
4.1
4.8
3.5
29.1
29.0
29.1
vs Stronger (6)
9.7
9.0
10.3
4.2
5.7
2.7
22.2
22.3
22.0
vs Similar (23)
10.8
11.1
10.6
4.1
4.6
3.6
29.8
29.7
29.8
vs Weaker (21)
8.6
9.4
7.8
4.2
4.7
3.6
30.2
30.1
30.4
% over line
54%
48%
60%
54%
76%
32%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
46%
52%
40%
46%
24%
68%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.7
9.0
3.2
3.3
3.1
33.8
32.5
35.2
vs Stronger (5)
11.5
11.5
11.5
2.6
3.0
2.3
26.5
23.5
29.5
vs Similar (42)
9.7
10.6
8.7
3.2
3.1
3.2
34.7
33.3
36.4
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
10.0
8.0
4.0
5.0
2.0
34.5
38.0
31.0
% over line
47%
58%
35%
46%
42%
50%
97%
95%
100%
% under line
53%
42%
65%
54%
58%
50%
3%
5%
0%
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Venezia
11.3
Cremonese
11.1
Bari
10.8
Frosinone
10.7
Foggia
10.5
Virtus Entella
10.4
Brescia
10.3
Spezia
10.3
Ternana
10.2
Pescara
10.1
Empoli
10.0
Cesena
10.0
Cittadella
10.0
Avellino
9.9
Palermo
9.8
Salernitana
9.6
Carpi
9.5
Pro Vercelli
9.5
Perugia
9.4
Parma
9.3
Novara
9.2
Ascoli
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Novara
4.9
Perugia
4.9
Parma
4.9
Cremonese
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Brescia
4.7
Cittadella
4.7
Ascoli
4.7
Pescara
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.5
Carpi
4.4
Salernitana
4.4
Avellino
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Bari
4.2
Spezia
4.2
Pro Vercelli
4.2
Palermo
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Empoli
4.0
Ternana
3.9
Foggia
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Virtus Entella
35.3
Avellino
33.8
Frosinone
33.3
Novara
33.1
Perugia
32.9
Brescia
32.7
Cittadella
31.9
Salernitana
31.9
Cremonese
31.8
Carpi
31.7
Parma
30.6
Pro Vercelli
30.4
Ascoli
30.4
Pescara
30.3
Ternana
29.9
Cesena
29.2
Palermo
29.1
Empoli
28.9
Bari
28.7
Spezia
28.7
Venezia
28.1
Foggia
28.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.5%
Under 9.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.5%
Under 3.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
98.0%
Under 21.5
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Palermo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.50
0.21
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.57
0.40
0.20
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.19
0.56
0.22
0.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.38
0.38
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.52
0.36
0.29
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Palermo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Palermo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.00
0.57
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Avellino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.88
0.94
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.92
0.93
1.07
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Palermo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Avellino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Palermo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dennis Johnsen67%
Joel Pohjanpalo33%
Tommaso Augello33%
Filippo Ranocchia33%
Dominic Vavassori33%
Hernani0%
Nahuel Estévez0%
Jacopo Segre0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nahuel Estévez33%
Tommaso Augello33%
Jacopo Segre33%
Gabriel Strefezza33%
Joel Pohjanpalo0%
Hernani0%
Filippo Ranocchia0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Dennis Johnsen0%
Dominic Vavassori0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dennis Johnsen67%
Joel Pohjanpalo33%
Hernani33%
Nahuel Estévez0%
Tommaso Augello0%
Jacopo Segre0%
Filippo Ranocchia0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
Dominic Vavassori0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Ranocchia67%
Joel Pohjanpalo0%
Hernani0%
Nahuel Estévez0%
Tommaso Augello0%
Jacopo Segre0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
Dennis Johnsen0%
Dominic Vavassori0%
Avellino · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Raffaele Russo67%
Michele Besaggio33%
Brando Moruzzi33%
Armando Izzo0%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Lorenco Šimić0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Tommaso Biasci0%
Martin Palumbo0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Michele Besaggio67%
Armando Izzo33%
Lorenco Šimić33%
Brando Moruzzi33%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Tommaso Biasci0%
Raffaele Russo0%
Martin Palumbo0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Favilli33%
Martin Palumbo33%
Armando Izzo0%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Lorenco Šimić0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Tommaso Biasci0%
Raffaele Russo0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
Brando Moruzzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tommaso Biasci33%
Martin Palumbo33%
Armando Izzo0%
Tommaso Cancellotti0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Lorenco Šimić0%
Luca Palmiero0%
Raffaele Russo0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Tommaso Martinelli0%
Brando Moruzzi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (28)
€142m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
BAR (22)
€8m
Palermo's squad is €28m more valuable than Avellino's (€54m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
PAL (7)
€23m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
AVE (10)
€6m
ASC (11)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
VE (7)
€3m
BAR (6)
€2m
Palermo's attack is €17m more valuable than Avellino's (€23m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (8)
€60m
VEN (11)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
CRE (10)
€15m
PAL (7)
€12m
AVE (6)
€9m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
SPE (11)
€4m
BAR (6)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
PES (6)
€1m
Palermo's midfield is €3m more valuable than Avellino's (€12m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
FRO (14)
€24m
CRE (13)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
CES (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
BAR (10)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Palermo's defence is €8m more valuable than Avellino's (€19m vs €11m).
Italy: Serie B 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Empoli
Parma
Frosinone
Venezia
Bari
Cittadella
Perugia
Spezia
Salernitana
Cesena
Cremonese
Brescia
Pescara
Ascoli
Virtus Entella
Ternana