This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
0.67
0.87
1.13
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
1.12
1.25
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.50
0.45
0.82
1.09
2.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.1%
1-0
11.6%
1-1 ✓
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
7.7%
0-0
7.6%
3-1
6.2%
0-1
4.3%
Palermo goals ↓
Padova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
4.3%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
12%
11%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
7.7%
6.2%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.7%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Palermo goals (down), columns = Padova goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Brescia
1.86
Lecce
1.83
Palermo
1.75
Benevento
1.67
Pescara
1.53
Hellas Verona
1.44
Spezia
1.42
Cittadella
1.42
Perugia
1.39
Cremonese
1.36
Cosenza
1.28
Ascoli
1.19
Foggia
1.19
Crotone
1.19
Livorno
1.08
Salernitana
1.06
Venezia
1.06
Padova
0.86
Carpi
0.81
Palermo is 0.89 points better than Padova in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Brescia
1.92
Lecce
1.83
Benevento
1.69
Palermo
1.58
Spezia
1.47
Pescara
1.39
Perugia
1.36
Hellas Verona
1.36
Cittadella
1.36
Foggia
1.22
Salernitana
1.14
Ascoli
1.11
Crotone
1.11
Carpi
1.08
Livorno
1.06
Cremonese
1.03
Padova
1.00
Venezia
0.97
Cosenza
0.94
Palermo is 0.58 goals better than Padova in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.92
Palermo
1.06
Cittadella
1.06
Brescia
1.17
Cosenza
1.17
Crotone
1.17
Lecce
1.25
Benevento
1.25
Pescara
1.28
Spezia
1.28
Hellas Verona
1.28
Venezia
1.28
Foggia
1.36
Perugia
1.36
Padova
1.36
Livorno
1.42
Ascoli
1.56
Salernitana
1.58
Carpi
1.86
Palermo is 0.31 goals better than Padova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Palermo
For 5.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 20.2 · Against 16.0 · Total 36.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Padova
For 4.6 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.2 · Against 15.0 · Total 32.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Palermo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.5
4.7
4.9
4.6
30.7
27.7
33.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
10.7
11.1
10.3
4.6
5.1
4.1
30.0
28.2
32.0
vs Weaker (28)
8.6
8.2
8.9
4.8
4.7
4.9
31.3
27.2
34.4
% over line
48%
46%
50%
72%
71%
73%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
28%
29%
27%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
10.3
10.6
10.0
5.3
5.3
5.3
31.7
32.9
30.4
vs Stronger (10)
10.5
12.8
8.2
5.0
4.8
5.2
30.8
29.4
32.2
vs Similar (22)
10.2
9.5
10.8
5.5
5.5
5.4
32.0
34.5
29.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
62%
44%
81%
75%
88%
91%
88%
94%
% under line
47%
38%
56%
19%
25%
12%
9%
12%
6%
This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Livorno
10.6
Spezia
10.4
Padova
10.3
Hellas Verona
10.2
Pescara
10.2
Crotone
10.2
Salernitana
10.0
Venezia
10.0
Cittadella
9.9
Cremonese
9.9
Foggia
9.9
Carpi
9.8
Brescia
9.7
Palermo
9.6
Lecce
9.5
Perugia
9.4
Benevento
9.2
Cosenza
9.0
Ascoli
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.5
Livorno
5.5
Benevento
5.3
Padova
5.3
Cittadella
5.2
Hellas Verona
5.1
Brescia
5.1
Salernitana
4.9
Cosenza
4.9
Foggia
4.9
Cremonese
4.8
Crotone
4.8
Palermo
4.7
Perugia
4.7
Pescara
4.6
Lecce
4.6
Spezia
4.5
Venezia
4.5
Carpi
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Brescia
33.0
Cittadella
31.9
Ascoli
31.7
Padova
31.7
Livorno
31.2
Venezia
31.1
Cremonese
30.8
Palermo
30.7
Carpi
30.7
Cosenza
30.7
Salernitana
30.5
Perugia
30.3
Benevento
29.9
Spezia
29.3
Pescara
29.3
Foggia
29.2
Crotone
28.7
Hellas Verona
28.5
Lecce
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.8%
Under 9.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.5%
Under 3.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.0%
Under 21.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Palermo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.67
0.13
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.46
0.50
0.00
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.47
0.78
0.22
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.27
0.40
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.55
0.09
0.45
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Palermo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Padova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Padova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Padova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Palermo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.07
0.60
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.62
1.00
0.67
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.47
1.11
0.56
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.47
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.62
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.95
0.36
0.36
0.45
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Palermo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Padova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Padova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Padova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Palermo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dennis Johnsen67%
Joel Pohjanpalo33%
Tommaso Augello33%
Filippo Ranocchia33%
Dominic Vavassori33%
Hernani0%
Nahuel Estévez0%
Jacopo Segre0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nahuel Estévez33%
Tommaso Augello33%
Jacopo Segre33%
Gabriel Strefezza33%
Joel Pohjanpalo0%
Hernani0%
Filippo Ranocchia0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Dennis Johnsen0%
Dominic Vavassori0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dennis Johnsen67%
Joel Pohjanpalo33%
Hernani33%
Nahuel Estévez0%
Tommaso Augello0%
Jacopo Segre0%
Filippo Ranocchia0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
Dominic Vavassori0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Ranocchia67%
Joel Pohjanpalo0%
Hernani0%
Nahuel Estévez0%
Tommaso Augello0%
Jacopo Segre0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
Dennis Johnsen0%
Dominic Vavassori0%
Padova · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pietro Fusi33%
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Pastina33%
Pietro Fusi33%
Alessandro Dellavalle33%
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Pietro Fusi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Pietro Fusi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (36)
€117m
LEC (31)
€72m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
PAD (31)
€25m
BEN (30)
€12m
SPE (34)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
Palermo's squad is €29m more valuable than Padova's (€54m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
PAL (7)
€23m
LEC (9)
€20m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
PAD (9)
€6m
ASC (11)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
Palermo's attack is €17m more valuable than Padova's (€23m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (11)
€31m
LEC (8)
€16m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
PAD (9)
€7m
SPE (11)
€4m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
PES (6)
€1m
Palermo's midfield is €4m more valuable than Padova's (€12m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
LEC (14)
€37m
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
PAD (13)
€12m
BEN (13)
€5m
SPE (13)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
Palermo's defence is €8m more valuable than Padova's (€19m vs €12m).
Italy: Serie B 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →