Palermo are tipped to win, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Sampdoria win. The model expects 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13%. Home form shows Palermo averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.58 conceded against similar opposition, while Sampdoria, on the road, averages 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s picks include Under 7.5 at 99.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 98.8% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6% with a 6% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 97.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.7% with a 6% edge, and Under 5.5 at 96.3% with a 3% edge. Palermo’s recent 3-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-2 win over Arezzo, gives them a psychological edge, whereas Sampdoria return from a defeat to Juve Stabia.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Palermo win
50.4%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.84
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.91
Betano
1.90
Dafabet
1.90
Bet365
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.36
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.45
1xBet
3.45
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Sampdoria win
22.1%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.27
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.75
Pinnacle
4.61
Betano
4.45
Marathonbet
4.40
Dafabet
4.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Palermo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.97
2.21
0.50
1.31
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.77
1.08
2.25
0.58
1.36
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.20
1.13
1.07
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.90
1.20
1.13
1.07
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.0%
@ 1.29+2.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
@ 3.33-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.52
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.98-0.1%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.80+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.09
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Under
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.9%
@ 3.35-1.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
@ 1.29+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.39
Under
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
@ 1.81-0.0%
No
48.9%
@ 1.90+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Unibet
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
No
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.14+5.8%
1-0
10.9%@ 6.40+3.9%
2-0
9.7%@ 8.15+4.2%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.81+3.8%
0-0
8.8%@ 8.73+3.7%
0-1
6.3%@ 10.67+2.1%
1-2
5.9%@ 12.95+2.4%
3-0
5.1%@ 14.38+2.0%
Palermo goals ↓
Sampdoria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.3%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.5%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Palermo goals (down), columns = Sampdoria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Palermo is 0.72 points better than Sampdoria in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Palermo is 0.65 goals better than Sampdoria in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Palermo is 0.36 goals better than Sampdoria in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Palermo is 1.8 percentage points worse than Sampdoria in terms of average possession (49% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Palermo
For 4.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 11.1 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sampdoria
For 6.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 18.2 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Palermo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
10.0
4.6
4.4
4.8
28.4
28.0
28.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
9.4
9.1
9.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
28.8
28.5
29.2
vs Weaker (4)
12.2
11.0
13.5
3.0
2.0
4.0
22.8
22.5
23.0
% over line
54%
44%
64%
66%
64%
68%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
46%
56%
36%
34%
36%
32%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.0
4.8
5.1
4.5
32.8
34.3
31.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.2
9.4
9.0
4.8
4.9
4.7
32.6
34.1
31.1
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.0
-
5.3
8.0
0.0
36.5
36.5
-
% over line
41%
40%
42%
72%
68%
76%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
59%
60%
58%
28%
32%
24%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Carrarese
10.6
Vicenza Virtus
10.4
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
9.9
Palermo
9.6
Ascoli
9.6
Cesena
9.4
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.3
Sampdoria
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Cremonese
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.3
Arezzo
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.7
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Mantova
5.1
Carrarese
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Empoli
4.5
Benevento
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.3
Sudtirol
4.2
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Pisa
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Arezzo
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.6
Ascoli
32.6
Sudtirol
30.8
Avellino
30.8
Catanzaro
30.5
Vicenza Virtus
30.0
Virtus Entella
29.9
Empoli
29.8
Juve Stabia
29.7
Padova
28.7
Modena
28.6
Benevento
28.5
Carrarese
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.1
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
25.1
Arezzo
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.0%
@ 1.99+0.3%
Under 9.5
53.0%
@ 1.74-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Under
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.1%
Under 3.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
93.0%
Under 21.5
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Palermo or Draw
86.5%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
+8.2%
50%
27%
22%
covers Palermo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Palermo or Sampdoria
74.7%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
+1.6%
50%
27%
22%
covers Palermo + Sampdoria
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Sampdoria
38.8%
Avg Implied 48.7% · @ 1.92
Edge
-9.8%
50%
27%
22%
covers Draw + Sampdoria
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Palermo over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
@ 1.18+3.6%
Under
17.8%
@ 4.32-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Palermo over/under 1.5
Over
51.5%
@ 1.92+2.8%
Under
48.5%
@ 1.82-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Under
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.80
Palermo over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
@ 3.84+0.8%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.22-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
Betano
3.85
Under
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Palermo over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
@ 8.42-1.4%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.05+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.60
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Sampdoria over/under 0.5
Over
50.0%
@ 1.50-11.7%
Under
50.0%
@ 2.42+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Sampdoria over/under 1.5
Over
15.4%
@ 3.51-11.0%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.26+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Sampdoria over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
@ 9.36-6.7%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Sampdoria over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
@ 20.75-4.1%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Palermo, so a minus line means Palermo give that many goals of a start and Sampdoria receive them. At -1, Palermo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Palermo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Palermo)
Palermo -2
16.2%
@ 6.84+3.1%
Draw -2
19.4%
@ 5.09+1.7%
Sampdoria +2
64.4%
@ 1.30-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
5.80
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Palermo)
Palermo -1
35.6%
@ 3.19+7.7%
Draw -1
25.5%
@ 3.45-0.3%
Sampdoria +1
38.8%
@ 1.92-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
2.98
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Away
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (Palermo)
Palermo +1
86.5%
@ 1.19+10.8%
Draw +1
9.6%
@ 5.81-5.8%
Sampdoria -1
3.9%
@ 10.16-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
Handicap +2 (Palermo)
Palermo +2
96.1%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Draw +2
3.1%
@ 14.00-3.6%
Sampdoria -2
0.8%
@ 40.00-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Palermo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.21
0.29
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.38
1.17
0.33
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.13
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.30
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.13
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.39+4.6%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 2.78-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
William Hil
2.90
Unibet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.6%
@ 2.85+3.0%
Under 1.5
64.4%
@ 1.38-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.91
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 7.30-0.4%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.07+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Palermo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.5%
@ 1.78+6.5%
Under
41.5%
@ 1.94-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
Unibet
1.76
Under
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.00
Unibet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Palermo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.9%
@ 4.99+2.4%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.14-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Palermo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
@ 12.88-2.6%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.2%
@ 2.65-1.8%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.43+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
@ 9.30-2.9%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.70
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Palermo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.00
0.21
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.69
1.08
0.25
0.86
1.07
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
@ 1.24+4.1%
Under 0.5
21.1%
@ 3.69-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
1xBet
3.75
William Hil
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.2%
@ 2.13+2.5%
Under 1.5
53.8%
@ 1.66-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Unibet
2.15
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.1%
@ 4.54-1.5%
Under 2.5
80.9%
@ 1.17+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.30
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Palermo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.2%
@ 1.57+3.0%
Under
37.8%
@ 2.27-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.32
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Palermo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.4%
@ 3.60+1.8%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.24-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.55
Marathonbet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Palermo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
@ 9.15-3.0%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.8%
@ 2.15-2.3%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.63+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.56
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.1%
@ 7.00-4.2%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.07+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
@ 19.00-3.7%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+6.7%
Under 5.5
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.4%
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+2.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
+4.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+1.4%
Under 4.5
90.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+4.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+0.4%
Home or Draw
86.5%
1.19
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
+8.2%
Home +1 handicap
86.5%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
+10.8%
Over 23.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.6%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+11.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+3.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.17
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
+1.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.1%
1.14
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
-
-2.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.24
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.1%
Under 11.5 corners
75.9%
1.27
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+2.8%
Over 25.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.0%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-0.8%
Home or Away
74.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.6%
Under 3.5
74.1%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
+1.9%
Over 1.5
74.0%
1.29
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+2.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-
-1.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.39
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
+4.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Palermo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Johnsen75%
J. Pohjanpalo50%
Tommaso Augello33%
F. Ranocchia33%
Gabriel Strefezza25%
D. Vavassori25%
Hernani0%
N. Estévez0%
J. Segre0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Tommaso Cassandro0%
P. Peda0%
M. Fortin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tommaso Augello33%
Tommaso Cassandro33%
N. Estévez25%
J. Segre25%
Gabriel Strefezza25%
J. Pohjanpalo0%
Hernani0%
F. Ranocchia0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
D. Johnsen0%
P. Peda0%
M. Fortin0%
D. Vavassori0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
D. Johnsen75%
P. Peda33%
J. Pohjanpalo25%
Hernani25%
J. Segre25%
D. Vavassori25%
N. Estévez0%
Tommaso Augello0%
F. Ranocchia0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
Tommaso Cassandro0%
M. Fortin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
F. Ranocchia67%
J. Pohjanpalo0%
Hernani0%
N. Estévez0%
Tommaso Augello0%
J. Segre0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Gabriel Strefezza0%
D. Johnsen0%
Tommaso Cassandro0%
P. Peda0%
M. Fortin0%
D. Vavassori0%
Sampdoria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liam Henderson33%
Gennaro Tutino33%
Danel Sinani0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Manuel Cicconi67%
Liam Henderson33%
Danel Sinani0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Mattia Viti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Gartenmann33%
Danel Sinani0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Liam Henderson0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danel Sinani33%
Liam Henderson33%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Palermo's squad is €16m more valuable than Sampdoria's (€54m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Palermo's attack is €10m more valuable than Sampdoria's (€23m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Palermo's midfield is €4m more valuable than Sampdoria's (€12m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Palermo's defence is €2m more valuable than Sampdoria's (€19m vs €17m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
Cremonese