Panathinaikos enter the match as the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 66% chance of a home win, 24% for a draw and 10% for an away victory. The 66% figure reflects the team’s strong home form - averaging 2.11 goals scored and only 0.44 conceded against weaker opposition - while Iraklis 1908, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a 16.2% chance. The model’s selection list includes an “Under 3.5” pick at 79.2%. Recent form shows Panathinaikos unbeaten in their last five, winning their most recent 2-0, whereas Iraklis came off a 1-1 draw. The predicted outcome, a home win, aligns with the home side’s dominance and the away side’s defensive frailty.
Results analysis
Panathinaikos extended their unbeaten run, keeping a solid form line as they faced Iraklis 1908. The model predicted a home win with a 66% chance, and that call proved correct as Panathinaikos triumphed 4-0. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was right, while the only other selection - Under 3.5 goals with a 79.2% probability - missed, as the match produced four goals. The final score of 4-0 confirmed the home side’s dominance and left the model’s other picks on the wrong side of the outcome. The match was a clear illustration of how the predictions aligned with the result, except for the over-goal expectation.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panathinaikos win✓ Hit
65.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 win✗ Miss
10.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Panathinaikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.88
1.75
0.75
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.55
2.11
0.44
1.45
0.64
Clean sheet %
46% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.84
1.00
1.08
0.67
0.62
1.31
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.83
1.67
1.33
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.10
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.6%
No
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.2%
2-0
15.2%
0-0
10.7%
1-1
10.6%
3-0
9.0%
2-1
8.5%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.5%
Panathinaikos goals ↓
Iraklis 1908 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
4.5%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
1
16%
11%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.5%
2.4%
0.4%
0.1%
3
9.0%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
4
4.0%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panathinaikos goals (down), columns = Iraklis 1908 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.83
Panathinaikos
1.93
AEK Athens FC
1.90
PAOK
1.60
Panionios
1.47
Atromitos
1.40
PAS Giannina
1.40
Asteras Tripolis
1.37
Platanias
1.30
Levadiakos
1.23
Panetolikos
1.17
Iraklis 1908
1.17
Xanthi FC
1.10
Veria
0.90
Panthrakikos
0.57
Kallonis
0.53
Panathinaikos is 0.77 points better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of average points per game (1.93 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.70
Panathinaikos
1.73
PAOK
1.50
AEK Athens FC
1.43
PAS Giannina
1.20
Panionios
1.10
Platanias
1.07
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.00
Xanthi FC
0.90
Levadiakos
0.90
Atromitos
0.87
Iraklis 1908
0.80
Kallonis
0.63
Veria
0.63
Panthrakikos
0.60
Panathinaikos is 0.93 goals better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.53
AEK Athens FC
0.70
Panathinaikos
0.87
Panionios
0.90
Platanias
1.00
Asteras Tripolis
1.00
Atromitos
1.03
PAOK
1.07
Xanthi FC
1.07
Iraklis 1908
1.07
Veria
1.10
Levadiakos
1.20
PAS Giannina
1.33
Panetolikos
1.53
Kallonis
1.77
Panthrakikos
1.93
Panathinaikos is 0.20 goals better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Panathinaikos
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Iraklis 1908
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Panathinaikos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panathinaikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.40
1.00
0.18
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.60
0.30
1.11
0.22
0.18
0.36
Clean sheet %
72% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.48
0.67
0.25
0.23
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.60
0.25
0.25
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.22
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
56% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panathinaikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panathinaikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.40
0.91
0.36
1.07
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.25
1.00
0.22
1.27
0.27
Clean sheet %
72% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.52
0.42
0.42
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
0.22
0.11
0.20
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panathinaikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Panathinaikos · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cyriel Dessers100%
Adriano Jagušić50%
Levi García33%
Elmin Rastoder25%
Iñaki Peña0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Rick Van Drongelen0%
Georgios Kyriakopoulos0%
Adam Gnezda Čerin0%
Facundo Pellistri0%
Pedro Chirivella0%
Anass Zaroury0%
Etienne Camara0%
Vicente Taborda0%
Andreas Tetteh0%
Georgios Katris0%
Sotiris Kontouris0%
Santino Andino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgios Katris67%
Santino Andino40%
Levi García33%
Andreas Tetteh33%
Elmin Rastoder25%
Sotiris Kontouris25%
Etienne Camara20%
Vicente Taborda20%
Iñaki Peña0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Rick Van Drongelen0%
Georgios Kyriakopoulos0%
Cyriel Dessers0%
Adam Gnezda Čerin0%
Facundo Pellistri0%
Pedro Chirivella0%
Anass Zaroury0%
Adriano Jagušić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vicente Taborda40%
Stefan de Vrij20%
Santino Andino20%
Iñaki Peña0%
Rick Van Drongelen0%
Georgios Kyriakopoulos0%
Cyriel Dessers0%
Adam Gnezda Čerin0%
Facundo Pellistri0%
Levi García0%
Pedro Chirivella0%
Anass Zaroury0%
Elmin Rastoder0%
Etienne Camara0%
Andreas Tetteh0%
Georgios Katris0%
Sotiris Kontouris0%
Adriano Jagušić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cyriel Dessers100%
Levi García67%
Anass Zaroury33%
Adriano Jagušić25%
Santino Andino20%
Iñaki Peña0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Rick Van Drongelen0%
Georgios Kyriakopoulos0%
Adam Gnezda Čerin0%
Facundo Pellistri0%
Pedro Chirivella0%
Elmin Rastoder0%
Etienne Camara0%
Vicente Taborda0%
Andreas Tetteh0%
Georgios Katris0%
Sotiris Kontouris0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
I1 (25)
€9m
PAN (24)
€5m
PG (36)
€4m
Panathinaikos's squad is €101m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€109m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
PAN (11)
€7m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
Panathinaikos's attack is €44m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€46m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
PG (7)
€1m
PAN (1)
€0m
Panathinaikos's midfield is €23m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€26m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
LEV (9)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
Panathinaikos's defence is €34m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€38m vs €4m).
Greece: Super League 1 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
AEK Athens FC
PAOK
Panionios
PAS Giannina
Atromitos
Asteras Tripolis
Levadiakos
Panetolikos
Xanthi FC
Veria
Panthrakikos