Pythia gives Panetolikos a 38% win probability against Asteras Tripolis in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2026-05-21, with 32% for the draw and 30% for Asteras Tripolis. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (94%), Over 2.5 cards (89%), Over 21.5 fouls (87%), Under 3.5 (83%).
Results analysis
Panetolikos finished 1-2 against Asteras Tripolis (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 38% home win, 32% draw and 30% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (94%), Over 2.5 cards (89%), Over 21.5 fouls (87%), Under 3.5 (83%), Over 23.5 fouls (76%), Over 3.5 cards (76%). Missed: Under 11.5 corners (82%), Under 10.5 corners (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panetolikos win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.29
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.13
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 2.90
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Panetolikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.27
1.21
1.64
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.45
0.33
2.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.16
1.88
1.38
1.09
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asteras Tripolis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.27
1.38
1.00
0.43
1.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.10
0.20
1.40
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.35
1.91
0.82
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.9%
Under 1.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.6%
@ 2.09-7.6%
Under 2.5
63.4%
@ 1.66+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.3%
Under 3.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.9%
1-0
12.0%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.7%
2-0
7.7%
1-2 ✓
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
Panetolikos goals ↓
Asteras Tripolis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.7%
2.2%
0.6%
2
7.7%
7.7%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panetolikos goals (down), columns = Asteras Tripolis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis are level in average points per game (both 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis are level in goals scored per game (both 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
Panetolikos is 0.03 goals worse than Asteras Tripolis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
Panetolikos is 0.8 percentage points better than Asteras Tripolis in terms of average possession (46% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Panetolikos
For 3.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.5 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Asteras Tripolis
For 5.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Panetolikos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.7
8.6
5.2
4.8
5.6
27.0
25.6
28.5
vs Stronger (14)
9.4
8.7
10.1
5.1
4.6
5.6
27.9
27.1
28.7
vs Similar (32)
8.2
8.8
7.7
5.2
4.9
5.4
26.8
24.9
28.8
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
8.0
10.0
6.2
5.5
7.0
25.5
25.0
26.0
% over line
40%
44%
36%
82%
72%
92%
84%
76%
92%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
18%
28%
8%
16%
24%
8%
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asteras Tripolis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.5
9.2
5.6
5.8
5.3
27.6
26.5
28.8
vs Stronger (18)
8.7
8.8
8.7
5.1
6.0
4.1
27.1
26.6
27.6
vs Similar (32)
9.7
9.9
9.4
5.9
5.8
6.0
28.0
26.4
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
52%
48%
78%
80%
76%
82%
84%
80%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
22%
20%
24%
18%
16%
20%
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.7
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
Aris Thessalonikis
9.3
OFI
9.0
OFI Crete
9.0
Atromitos
8.8
AEK Athens FC
8.8
PAOK
8.8
Larisa
8.7
Volos NFC
8.7
Panserraikos
8.6
Panetolikos
8.6
Levadiakos
8.6
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.6
Larisa
6.2
Panserraikos
5.9
Volos NFC
5.7
OFI
5.7
AEK Athens FC
5.6
OFI Crete
5.6
Asteras Tripolis
5.6
Levadiakos
5.5
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Atromitos
4.9
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.5
Larisa
32.2
Atromitos
30.6
Levadiakos
30.4
Volos NFC
30.3
AEK Athens FC
29.6
OFI
28.8
OFI Crete
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.6
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.6
Panserraikos
27.5
Panetolikos
27.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.4
PAOK
24.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
39.4%
Under 9.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.9%
Under 3.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panetolikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.64
0.33
0.83
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.68
0.50
0.75
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asteras Tripolis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.56
0.62
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
0.80
0.00
1.20
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.60
0.82
0.36
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panetolikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panetolikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.79
0.86
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (11)
0.00
0.82
0.00
1.17
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.47
1.38
0.62
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asteras Tripolis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.81
0.38
0.07
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
1.09
0.45
0.11
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panetolikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →