Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity is the headline here. Panetolikos, struggling at home against stronger opposition, averages 0.5 goals for and 2.0 against, while Panathinaikos, on the road to weaker sides, scores 1.38 and concedes only 0.75. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 53% chance versus 17% for a home victory and 29% for a draw. The expected total is a tight 2.1 goals, with the most likely total being two. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1, carrying a 15.6% probability.

The model’s selections include a 99.9% chance of over 19.5 fouls, 99.7% for over 21.5 fouls, 99.1% for over 23.5 fouls, 97.6% for over 25.5 fouls, 92.5% for over 2.5 cards, 86.7% for under 11.5 corners, 82.9% for under 3.5 goals, and an 82.3% chance that over 3.5 cards will miss. Each pick is listed with its probability. The match is set to be low-scoring and defensively dominated, with Panathinaikos the clear favourite.

The 1-0 home win by Panetolikos shocked the pre-match favourite, Panathinaikos, who had been unbeaten in their last five outings. The model had tipped an away win with a 53% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score was 1-0, a home victory that extended Panetolikos’ two-game winning run. The model’s selection of “Over 19.5 fouls” at 99.9% hit, as did “Over 21.5 fouls” at 99.7%, “Over 23.5 fouls” at 99.1%, “Over 25.5 fouls” at 97.6%, “Over 2.5 cards” at 92.5%, “Under 11.5 corners” at 86.7%, and “Under 3.5” at 82.9%. The “Over 3.5 cards” pick at 82.3% missed. All probabilities were expressed as percentages.