Pythia gives Panserraikos a 17% win probability against Panetolikos in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2026-05-17, with 30% for the draw and 52% for Panetolikos. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-1 the most likely scoreline (16.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Under 11.5 corners (88%).
Results analysis
Panserraikos finished 1-1 against Panetolikos (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 17% home win, 30% draw and 52% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Under 11.5 corners (88%), Under 3.5 (85%), Over 23.5 fouls (82%), Under 10.5 corners (80%), Over 3.5 cards (78%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panserraikos win✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied 36.0% · @ 2.53
Edge
-18.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.01
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos win✗ Miss
52.5%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.69
Edge
+18.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Panserraikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.97
0.60
1.93
0.87
2.00
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
2.37
0.45
2.36
1.00
2.38
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.27
1.00
0.75
0.71
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panetolikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.40
1.67
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.45
0.33
2.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
1.58
1.21
2.11
1.44
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.5%
Under 1.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.3%
@ 2.30-7.0%
Under 2.5
66.7%
@ 1.55+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.9%
Under 3.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.5%
No
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
16.7%
0-0
14.3%
1-1 ✓
13.1%
0-2
12.2%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
4.0%
Panserraikos goals ↓
Panetolikos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
17%
12%
5.6%
1.9%
1
7.5%
13%
8.2%
3.7%
1.3%
2
2.9%
4.0%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
3
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panserraikos goals (down), columns = Panetolikos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
Panserraikos is 0.26 points worse than Panetolikos in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
Panserraikos is 0.37 goals worse than Panetolikos in terms of goals scored per game (0.66 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
Panserraikos is 0.61 goals worse than Panetolikos in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
Panserraikos is 8.5 percentage points worse than Panetolikos in terms of average possession (37% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Panserraikos
For 3.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 15.3 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Panetolikos
For 4.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.5 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Panserraikos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.4
9.0
5.6
5.6
5.7
27.5
27.8
27.2
vs Stronger (28)
8.6
8.8
8.5
5.7
5.5
6.0
26.8
27.3
26.2
vs Similar (22)
8.8
7.8
9.7
5.5
5.7
5.4
28.5
28.7
28.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
36%
56%
80%
80%
80%
84%
80%
88%
% under line
54%
64%
44%
20%
20%
20%
16%
20%
12%
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panetolikos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
5.2
4.8
5.6
27.3
25.6
29.0
vs Stronger (15)
9.4
8.7
10.0
5.0
4.6
5.4
28.5
27.1
29.8
vs Similar (31)
8.3
8.8
7.8
5.2
4.9
5.5
26.9
24.9
29.1
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
8.0
10.0
6.2
5.5
7.0
25.5
25.0
26.0
% over line
40%
44%
36%
82%
72%
92%
84%
76%
92%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
18%
28%
8%
16%
24%
8%
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.7
Aris Thessalonikis
9.4
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
OFI
9.1
OFI Crete
9.1
AEK Athens FC
9.0
Atromitos
8.8
Panserraikos
8.7
Larisa
8.7
Volos NFC
8.7
Panetolikos
8.7
PAOK
8.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.6
Levadiakos
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.6
Larisa
6.2
Panserraikos
6.0
OFI
5.8
OFI Crete
5.8
Volos NFC
5.8
AEK Athens FC
5.6
Asteras Tripolis
5.6
Levadiakos
5.4
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.1
Atromitos
4.9
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.5
Larisa
32.2
Volos NFC
30.7
Atromitos
30.6
Levadiakos
30.1
AEK Athens FC
29.6
OFI Crete
28.8
OFI
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.7
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.6
Panserraikos
27.5
Panetolikos
27.3
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.3
PAOK
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
30.5%
Under 9.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.4%
Under 3.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.7%
Under 21.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panserraikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.00
0.20
0.73
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
1.05
0.09
0.82
0.62
1.38
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
0.50
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panetolikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.64
0.33
0.83
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.68
0.44
0.67
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panserraikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panserraikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
1.32
0.36
1.55
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.25
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Panetolikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panetolikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
1.00
0.93
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (11)
0.00
0.82
0.00
1.17
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.53
1.67
0.78
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panserraikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panetolikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (28)
€134m
PAO (34)
€96m
PAN (31)
€89m
AAF (32)
€82m
AT (31)
€40m
KIF (41)
€20m
OC (30)
€17m
PAN (35)
€16m
LEV (31)
€15m
ATR (30)
€15m
VN (37)
€12m
LAR (35)
€12m
PAN (33)
€10m
Panserraikos's squad is €6m less valuable than Panetolikos's (€10m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAO (12)
€50m
PAN (12)
€44m
AAF (11)
€35m
OP (8)
€28m
AT (16)
€20m
KIF (18)
€11m
OC (11)
€8m
PAN (15)
€8m
ATR (13)
€6m
LEV (10)
€5m
VN (15)
€5m
LAR (14)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
Panserraikos's attack is €5m less valuable than Panetolikos's (€3m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€48m
PAO (7)
€24m
PAN (8)
€23m
AAF (8)
€20m
AT (4)
€9m
ATR (5)
€4m
OC (6)
€4m
LEV (7)
€3m
PAN (6)
€3m
KIF (7)
€3m
PAN (7)
€3m
VN (5)
€2m
LAR (5)
€2m
Panserraikos and Panetolikos have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (14)
€59m
AAF (13)
€26m
PAO (15)
€23m
PAN (11)
€22m
AT (11)
€10m
LEV (14)
€7m
KIF (16)
€6m
OC (13)
€6m
VN (17)
€5m
LAR (16)
€5m
PAN (14)
€5m
ATR (12)
€5m
PAN (15)
€5m
Panserraikos and Panetolikos have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AEK Athens FC
Olympiakos Piraeus
PAOK
Panathinaikos
Levadiakos
Aris Thessalonikis
Atromitos
Kifisia
OFI
Asteras Tripolis
Volos NFC
Larisa