PAOK II are the clear favourites to lift the trophy at home, with a 52% chance of victory against Nestos Chrisoupolis, who face a 21% probability of winning and a 27% chance of a draw. The model predicts an average of 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being 2, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13% chance. PAOK II have been scoring 0.71 goals per match and conceding 1.57 against teams of similar strength, while Nestos Chrisoupolis average 0.87 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.2%), Home +2 handicap (92.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%), and Under 4.5 (88.7%). PAOK II are on a two-game winning run, having beaten Makedonikos Neapolis 3-1, while Nestos Chrisoupolis remain unbeaten in five games, most recently defeating Apollon Pontou 1-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
PAOK II win
51.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis win
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
PAOK II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.07
1.67
1.07
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
1.36
0.71
1.57
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (16)
2.12
0.81
2.50
0.62
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nestos Chrisoupolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.93
1.12
0.69
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.93
1.21
0.64
0.93
1.21
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
PAOK II goals ↓
Nestos Chrisoupolis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.2%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.4%
5.1%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PAOK II goals (down), columns = Nestos Chrisoupolis goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Larisa
1.80
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Pyrgos 1968
1.41
Zakynthos
1.41
Panthrakikos
1.41
Panserraikos
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Apollon Pontou
1.18
PAOK II is 0.21 points better than Nestos Chrisoupolis in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niki Volos
1.92
PAOK II
1.57
Larisa
1.48
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Pyrgos 1968
1.16
Zakynthos
1.16
Panthrakikos
1.16
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Panserraikos
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Apollon Pontou
0.97
PAOK II is 0.50 goals better than Nestos Chrisoupolis in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Larisa
0.89
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Pyrgos 1968
1.13
Zakynthos
1.13
Panthrakikos
1.13
Panserraikos
1.17
Apollon Pontou
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
PAOK II is 0.18 goals worse than Nestos Chrisoupolis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
PAOK II or Draw
79.2%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers PAOK II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PAOK II or Nestos Chrisoupolis
72.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers PAOK II + Nestos Chrisoupolis
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nestos Chrisoupolis
48.2%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers Draw + Nestos Chrisoupolis
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
PAOK II over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 2.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 0.5
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 1.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to PAOK II, so a minus line means PAOK II give that many goals of a start and Nestos Chrisoupolis receive them. At -1, PAOK II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal PAOK II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (PAOK II)
PAOK II -2
11.9%
Draw -2
16.3%
Nestos Chrisoupolis +2
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (PAOK II)
PAOK II -1
28.1%
Draw -1
23.7%
Nestos Chrisoupolis +1
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (PAOK II)
PAOK II +1
79.2%
Draw +1
13.3%
Nestos Chrisoupolis -1
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (PAOK II)
PAOK II +2
92.5%
Draw +2
5.5%
Nestos Chrisoupolis -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PAOK II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.64
0.14
0.71
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.38
1.12
0.38
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Nestos Chrisoupolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.27
0.44
0.12
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.25
0.50
0.07
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PAOK II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PAOK II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.00
0.53
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.71
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.44
1.38
0.25
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nestos Chrisoupolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.69
0.56
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.68
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PAOK II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ATI (23)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
PAOK II's squad is €2m more valuable than Nestos Chrisoupolis's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (13)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
ATI (6)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
PAOK II and Nestos Chrisoupolis have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
ATI (7)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MAR (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
PAOK II and Nestos Chrisoupolis have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
ATI (10)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
PAOK II and Nestos Chrisoupolis have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Greece: Super League 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →