Pythia gives PAOK a 46% win probability against AEK Athens FC in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2026-05-13, with 31% for the draw and 23% for AEK Athens FC. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 2.5 cards (91%), Over 21.5 fouls (89%), Under 3.5 (83%).
Results analysis
PAOK finished 1-1 against AEK Athens FC (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 46% home win, 31% draw and 23% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 2.5 cards (91%), Over 21.5 fouls (89%), Under 3.5 (83%), Over 3.5 cards (79%). Missed: Under 11.5 corners (80%), Over 23.5 fouls (80%), Under 10.5 corners (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
PAOK win✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied 54.1% · @ 1.69
Edge
-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.53
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 4.56
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
PAOK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.93
2.19
0.62
1.29
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.27
1.00
1.43
0.43
1.12
1.50
vs Weaker (15)
2.27
0.87
2.78
0.78
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.73
2.19
0.69
1.86
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.82
0.64
2.60
0.80
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.16
0.79
2.00
0.64
2.38
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.9%
Under 1.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.7%
@ 1.91-11.8%
Under 2.5
63.3%
@ 1.80+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.3%
Under 3.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%
1-0
13.8%
0-0
12.8%
2-0
9.9%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.3%
PAOK goals ↓
AEK Athens FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.5%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.3%
2
9.9%
8.4%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.3%
3.7%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PAOK goals (down), columns = AEK Athens FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
PAOK is 0.24 points worse than AEK Athens FC in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
PAOK is 0.12 goals better than AEK Athens FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
PAOK is 0.15 goals worse than AEK Athens FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 0.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
PAOK is 2.5 percentage points better than AEK Athens FC in terms of average possession (60% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PAOK
For 3.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Athens FC
For 6.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 14.9 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PAOK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.1
8.1
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.9
24.4
25.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
8.9
9.6
8.2
4.0
4.1
3.8
25.1
24.7
25.5
vs Weaker (27)
8.3
8.6
8.1
3.4
3.1
3.7
24.8
24.1
25.4
% over line
32%
45%
19%
54%
52%
56%
73%
75%
71%
% under line
68%
55%
81%
46%
48%
44%
27%
25%
29%
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.3
9.5
4.8
4.3
5.4
29.3
29.2
29.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.6
8.1
9.0
6.0
5.4
6.5
29.3
30.9
28.0
vs Weaker (35)
9.1
8.4
9.8
4.3
3.9
4.8
29.3
28.5
30.2
% over line
41%
41%
41%
78%
69%
88%
95%
95%
95%
% under line
59%
59%
59%
22%
31%
12%
5%
5%
5%
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.6
Aris Thessalonikis
9.5
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
OFI
9.2
OFI Crete
9.2
Atromitos
9.0
AEK Athens FC
8.8
Volos NFC
8.7
Panserraikos
8.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.7
Levadiakos
8.7
Panetolikos
8.7
Larisa
8.6
PAOK
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.7
Larisa
6.1
Panserraikos
6.0
Volos NFC
5.7
Asteras Tripolis
5.7
OFI
5.6
AEK Athens FC
5.6
OFI Crete
5.6
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Levadiakos
5.1
Atromitos
5.0
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.6
Larisa
32.4
Volos NFC
30.8
Atromitos
30.7
Levadiakos
29.9
AEK Athens FC
29.7
OFI Crete
28.8
OFI
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.5
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.7
Panserraikos
27.5
Panetolikos
27.3
PAOK
25.2
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.0%
Under 9.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.0%
Under 3.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.1%
Under 21.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PAOK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.25
0.38
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.40
0.29
0.43
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.27
2.00
0.33
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.69
0.31
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.47
0.82
0.36
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PAOK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PAOK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.94
0.25
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.60
1.14
0.00
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.60
0.78
0.44
0.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.37
1.50
0.38
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.27
0.45
2.20
0.60
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.26
0.32
1.18
0.27
1.38
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PAOK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (28)
€134m
PAO (34)
€96m
PAN (31)
€89m
AAF (32)
€82m
AT (31)
€40m
KIF (41)
€20m
OC (30)
€17m
PAN (35)
€16m
LEV (31)
€15m
ATR (30)
€15m
VN (37)
€12m
LAR (35)
€12m
PAN (33)
€10m
PAOK's squad is €15m more valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€96m vs €82m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAO (12)
€50m
PAN (12)
€44m
AAF (11)
€35m
OP (8)
€28m
AT (16)
€20m
KIF (18)
€11m
OC (11)
€8m
PAN (15)
€8m
ATR (13)
€6m
LEV (10)
€5m
VN (15)
€5m
LAR (14)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
PAOK's attack is €15m more valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€50m vs €35m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€48m
PAO (7)
€24m
PAN (8)
€23m
AAF (8)
€20m
AT (4)
€9m
ATR (5)
€4m
OC (6)
€4m
LEV (7)
€3m
PAN (6)
€3m
KIF (7)
€3m
PAN (7)
€3m
VN (5)
€2m
LAR (5)
€2m
PAOK's midfield is €3m more valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€24m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (14)
€59m
AAF (13)
€26m
PAO (15)
€23m
PAN (11)
€22m
AT (11)
€10m
LEV (14)
€7m
KIF (16)
€6m
OC (13)
€6m
VN (17)
€5m
LAR (16)
€5m
PAN (14)
€5m
ATR (12)
€5m
PAN (15)
€5m
PAOK's defence is €4m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€23m vs €26m).
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
Levadiakos
Aris Thessalonikis
Atromitos
Kifisia
OFI
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
Volos NFC
Larisa
Panserraikos