Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 face off in a tightly contested Czech Liga match, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14 % chance. Pardubice, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.69 conceded, while Bohemians 1905, on the road, averages 1.11 scored and 1.0 conceded. The win probabilities are 40 % for Pardubice, 29 % for a draw, and 31 % for Bohemians. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3 %), Under 5.5 (96.1 %), Over 19.5 fouls (92.2 %), Under 4.5 (89.7 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (87.5 %). Both teams have recently struggled, with Pardubice coming off a 1-3 loss and Bohemians 1905 a 2-2 draw, adding to the uncertainty.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pardubice win
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Pardubice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.47
1.27
1.53
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.50
1.29
1.57
1.50
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians 1905) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bohemians 1905
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.71
1.07
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.40
1.00
1.33
1.14
1.43
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.10
0.64
1.00
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pardubice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.2%
Pardubice goals ↓
Bohemians 1905 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.2%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.8%
8.6%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.5%
3.9%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pardubice goals (down), columns = Bohemians 1905 goals (across).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pardubice or Draw
63.6%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Pardubice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pardubice or Bohemians 1905
69.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Pardubice + Bohemians 1905
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bohemians 1905
66.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Draw + Bohemians 1905
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pardubice over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pardubice over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pardubice over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pardubice over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 1.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pardubice, so a minus line means Pardubice give that many goals of a start and Bohemians 1905 receive them. At -1, Pardubice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pardubice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pardubice)
Pardubice -2
4.7%
Draw -2
9.8%
Bohemians 1905 +2
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pardubice)
Pardubice -1
14.5%
Draw -1
19.0%
Bohemians 1905 +1
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pardubice)
Pardubice +1
63.6%
Draw +1
20.0%
Bohemians 1905 -1
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pardubice)
Pardubice +2
83.7%
Draw +2
10.8%
Bohemians 1905 -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pardubice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.62
0.64
0.71
0.58
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians 1905) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bohemians 1905
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.07
0.29
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.70
0.00
0.67
0.71
0.71
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.35
0.09
0.18
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Pardubice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pardubice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pardubice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pardubice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pardubice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.67
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.88
0.64
0.86
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians 1905) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bohemians 1905
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.64
0.79
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.70
1.00
0.67
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.55
0.82
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Pardubice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pardubice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pardubice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pardubice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians 1905 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (38)
€123m
SP (35)
€92m
PLZ (28)
€57m
SO (32)
€30m
SL (30)
€27m
BO (31)
€19m
HK (27)
€14m
FJ (28)
€14m
PAR (29)
€14m
MB (28)
€11m
ZB (31)
€10m
ART (30)
€9m
TEP (28)
€8m
SLO (29)
€8m
B1 (24)
€7m
ZLI (27)
€7m
Pardubice's squad is €7m more valuable than Bohemians 1905's (€14m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (14)
€43m
SP (10)
€27m
SL (10)
€17m
PLZ (8)
€15m
SO (10)
€7m
BO (10)
€5m
FJ (10)
€4m
HK (8)
€4m
PAR (9)
€4m
MB (9)
€4m
TEP (10)
€3m
ZB (10)
€3m
ART (9)
€2m
ZLI (8)
€2m
SLO (7)
€2m
B1 (6)
€2m
Pardubice's attack is €2m more valuable than Bohemians 1905's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (8)
€35m
SP (10)
€27m
PLZ (8)
€22m
SO (9)
€10m
BO (9)
€7m
PAR (8)
€4m
FJ (6)
€4m
SL (7)
€4m
MB (9)
€4m
HK (6)
€3m
SLO (9)
€3m
B1 (7)
€2m
ZLI (6)
€2m
TEP (8)
€2m
ZB (8)
€2m
ART (8)
€2m
Pardubice's midfield is €2m more valuable than Bohemians 1905's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (20)
€61m
SP (11)
€22m
PLZ (12)
€20m
SO (13)
€12m
BO (12)
€7m
HK (13)
€7m
FJ (12)
€6m
PAR (12)
€5m
SL (13)
€5m
ART (13)
€5m
ZB (13)
€5m
SLO (13)
€4m
B1 (11)
€3m
TEP (10)
€3m
MB (10)
€3m
ZLI (13)
€2m
Pardubice's defence is €2m more valuable than Bohemians 1905's (€5m vs €3m).
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: Czech Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Slavia Praha
Zbrojovka Brno
Slovan Liberec
Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
FK Jablonec
Teplice
Sparta Praha
BanĂk Ostrava
Hradec Králové
Plzen
Artis
Slovácko
Zlin