Pardubice are the favourites to win this match, despite FK Jablonec's recent four-game winning streak. The home side's recent form has been a concern, having lost four straight matches before a win against Slavia Praha. However, Pardubice's home scoring and conceding numbers are not impressive, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against stronger opponents.
FK Jablonec, on the other hand, has been in good form away, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded against weaker opponents. The expected total goals for this match is 2.8, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%.
The model predicts a home win with a 42% probability, a draw with 28%, and an away win with 30%. The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls with 81.5% probability, and Over 1.5 with 77.8% probability, which also has a 6% edge. Pardubice have a 42% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing.
The away team, FK Jablonec, pulled off a stunning upset with a 0-2 win over the home side, Pardubice, extending their run of four consecutive victories. This result was a surprise, given that Pardubice were the pre-match favourites, with a 42% probability of winning. However, the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, as it had a 30% probability of an away win. The model's call was wrong, and the actual result was an Away win. The suggested picks, which included Over 21.5 fouls and Over 1.5, both hit, with probabilities of 81.5% and 77.8%, respectively.
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.53 | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.40 | 1.48 | 1.23 | 1.62 | 1.58 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
FK Jablonec| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.60 | 1.41 | 1.18 | 1.00 | 2.15 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.43 | 3.43 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.17 | 1.04 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| FK Jablonec goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 13% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Pardubice
FK Jablonec
Pardubice| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 25.2 | 24.7 | 25.7 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 11.2 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (39) | 9.8 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 25.6 | 25.4 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 54% | 52% | 57% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 72% | 70% | 74% |
| % under line | 46% | 48% | 43% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 28% | 30% | 26% |
FK Jablonec| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 26.0 | 26.1 | 25.9 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 8.8 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 25.2 | 26.5 | 24.6 |
| vs Similar (37) | 10.6 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 26.3 | 26.1 | 26.6 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 58% | 52% | 64% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 84% | 86% | 82% |
| % under line | 42% | 48% | 36% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 16% | 14% | 18% |
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.48 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
FK Jablonec| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 0.46 | 1.23 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 1.13 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
FK Jablonec| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.92 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 1.29 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.70 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 92.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 78.2% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +10.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +5.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 71.0% | 1.35 | 1.46 | 1.38 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.30 | +3.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/09/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 13/04/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/11/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/11/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 29/07/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/05/23 | H | 2-0 |
Pardubice| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-1 |
FK Jablonec| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | 10.2 | 40% | 3.6 | 60% | 27.8 | 100% | 123 | 27 | 35 | 61 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 2 | Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.2 | 40% | 28.4 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 3 | Sigma Olomouc | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | 9.4 | 60% | 2.8 | 20% | 26.4 | 60% | 30 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 4 | Slovan Liberec | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 1.8 | 40% | 20% | 20% | 9.4 | 40% | 6.8 | 100% | 27.2 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 47% |
| 5 | Sparta Praha | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | 10.8 | 40% | 3.2 | 50% | 26.0 | 80% | 97 | 45 | 28 | 24 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 64% |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 31.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 7 | Zbrojovka Brno | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 9.0 | 25% | 4.0 | 67% | 21.2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Hradec Králové | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 45% |
| 9 | Teplice | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | 10.6 | 60% | 4.6 | 40% | 25.0 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 42% |
| 10 | Baník Ostrava | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 9.8 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 26.2 | 75% | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.5 | 50% | 28.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 46% |
| 12 | Plzen | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 7.5 | 0% | 4.8 | 75% | 25.8 | 75% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 56% |
| 13 | Pardubice | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | 9.6 | 40% | 3.6 | 40% | 28.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 46% |
| 14 | Slovácko | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 20% | 8.0 | 40% | 3.4 | 40% | 34.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 15 | Artis | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.6 | 20% | 3.2 | 40% | 27.6 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 30% |
| 16 | Zlin | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 40% | 8.6 | 20% | 3.8 | 40% | 30.6 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 40% |