PythiaFootballBETA
Pardubice are facing a challenging task against Mlada Boleslav, who are coming off a win against Sparta Praha. The recent form of both teams suggests a close match, with Pardubice struggling after four straight defeats and Mlada Boleslav looking to build on their recent success.
Mlada Boleslav are the favourite to win, with a 42% chance, ahead of a draw at 28% and Pardubice's 31% chance of a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.3%.
Pardubice have been scoring an average of 1.5 goals at home, conceding 1.0, while Mlada Boleslav have scored 1.57 goals away against similar opponents, conceding 1.0. The model's selection for the match result is an away win.
The model suggests over 21.5 fouls (82%), over 1.5 goals (76.9%), and under 3.5 goals (70.7%) as its selections, with an edge in the under 3.5 goals selection. Pardubice have a 31% chance of a home win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 42% chance of an away win.
In a stunning upset, Mlada Boleslav secured a 1-1 draw against Pardubice, extending the latter's run of draws. This result marks a significant turn of events, as the pre-match favourite, Mlada Boleslav, failed to come through. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 42%. The model's call was wrong.
Other model selections included Over 1.5, which hit with a probability of 76.9%, and Under 3.5, which also hit with a probability of 70.7%.
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.28 | 1.40 | 1.21 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.48 | 1.12 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Mlada Boleslav goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 13% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
PardubiceMlada BoleslavPardubice| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 25.4 | 25.2 | 25.5 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 23.1 | 22.8 | 23.5 |
| vs Similar (39) | 9.7 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 25.8 | 25.7 | 25.9 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | - |
| % over line | 51% | 48% | 54% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 74% | 74% | 75% |
| % under line | 49% | 52% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 26% | 26% | 25% |
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 25.0 | 25.7 | 24.2 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 9.4 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 24.1 | 26.2 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (40) | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 27.0 | - | 27.0 |
| % over line | 58% | 52% | 64% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 78% | 87% | 68% |
| % under line | 42% | 48% | 36% | 54% | 50% | 58% | 22% | 13% | 32% |
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.48 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -1.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.7% | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.46 | 1.46 | +6.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 22/09/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/04/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/11/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 12/02/23 | A | 0-1 |
Pardubice| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-0 |
Mlada Boleslav| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 27/07/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Slavia Praha | 6 | 14 | 67% | 2.3 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 3.7 | 100% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 29.3 | 100% | 123 | 27 | 35 | 61 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 2 |  Zbrojovka Brno | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 8.5 | 33% | 3.0 | 40% | 20.5 | 50% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 3 |  Slovan Liberec | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 50% | 17% | 17% | 9.8 | 50% | 6.7 | 100% | 28.0 | 83% | 27 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 47% |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.2 | 40% | 28.4 | 80% | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 5 |  Sigma Olomouc | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 83% | 83% | 33% | 9.3 | 50% | 2.8 | 17% | 24.7 | 50% | 30 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 6 |  FK Jablonec | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 0% | 8.2 | 20% | 3.6 | 40% | 30.2 | 100% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 7 |  Teplice | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 4.0 | 83% | 50% | 50% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.3 | 33% | 26.2 | 83% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 8 |  Sparta Praha | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 3.7 | 100% | 83% | 67% | 11.5 | 50% | 3.2 | 40% | 27.8 | 83% | 92 | 43 | 27 | 22 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 65% |
| 9 |  Baník Ostrava | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 9.6 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 24.2 | 60% | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 10 |  Hradec Králové | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.8 | 60% | 40% | 0% | 9.0 | 40% | 3.4 | 60% | 24.2 | 60% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 11 |  Bohemians 1905 | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 40% | 10.6 | 60% | 3.8 | 60% | 27.6 | 80% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 12 |  Plzen | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 4.6 | 100% | 60% | 60% | 7.8 | 0% | 6.4 | 80% | 27.2 | 80% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 59% |
| 13 |  Artis | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 33% | 7.7 | 17% | 3.3 | 50% | 27.5 | 83% | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 42% |
| 14 |  Slovácko | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 8.2 | 33% | 5.0 | 50% | 34.5 | 100% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 15 | Pardubice | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 100% | 67% | 17% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 50% | 28.5 | 100% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 40% |
| 16 |  Zlin | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3.0 | 67% | 50% | 50% | 8.8 | 33% | 3.7 | 33% | 29.5 | 83% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 43% |