Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Result & Analysis

The contest between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 34% for a home victory, 27% for a draw, and 39% for Monaco to come out on top. The expected goal tally sits at three, yet the most probable total is two, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability.

Paris Saint Germain, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.07 goals scored and concedes 1.0. Monaco, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and has not conceded in recent matches. The model’s suggested picks are: Over 1.5 goals at 80.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 76.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.9% (miss), and Under 25.5 fouls at 70.6%.

The upset came early as Paris Saint Germain edged Monaco 2-0, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that carried a 39% probability. The prediction was wrong, but the model’s other selections largely held. Over 1.5 goals, hit at 80.9%, and Over 2.5 cards, hit at 78.5%, were both fulfilled. Under 11.5 corners, hit at 77.0%, and Over 19.5 fouls, hit at 76.4%, also came through. Under 5.5 cards, missed at 75.9%, while Under 25.5 fouls, hit at 70.6%, was correct. The win extends Paris Saint Germain’s recent form, which now reads DDDLW after a draw against Lille. Monaco, on a three-game winning streak, fell short of their 4-1 victory over Gornik Zabrze.