This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.23
1.31
1.31
1.71
1.14
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
1.46
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.92
1.23
1.71
1.00
2.17
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.50-0.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.57+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.6%
No
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
3-1 ✓
5.7%
0-0
4.9%
Paris Saint Germain goals ↓
Nantes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.4%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.1%
11%
7.1%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.3%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.1%
5.7%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.9%
2.6%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paris Saint Germain goals (down), columns = Nantes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.26
Marseille
1.87
Monaco
1.82
Nice
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.66
Lens
1.63
Lyon
1.63
Lille
1.45
Nantes
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Reims
1.21
Montpellier
1.13
Angers
1.08
Estac Troyes
1.00
Clermont Foot
0.95
Lorient
0.95
Saint Etienne
0.84
Bordeaux
0.82
Metz
0.82
Paris Saint Germain is 0.82 points better than Nantes in terms of average points per game (2.26 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.37
Rennes
2.16
Lyon
1.74
Monaco
1.71
Marseille
1.66
Lens
1.63
Strasbourg
1.58
Nantes
1.45
Nice
1.37
Bordeaux
1.37
Stade Brestois 29
1.29
Montpellier
1.29
Lille
1.26
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.13
Saint Etienne
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.00
Estac Troyes
0.97
Metz
0.92
Lorient
0.92
Paris Saint Germain is 0.92 goals better than Nantes in terms of goals scored per game (2.37 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nice
0.95
Paris Saint Germain
0.95
Marseille
1.00
Rennes
1.05
Monaco
1.05
Strasbourg
1.13
Reims
1.16
Lille
1.26
Nantes
1.26
Lens
1.26
Lyon
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.39
Angers
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.50
Montpellier
1.61
Lorient
1.66
Clermont Foot
1.82
Metz
1.82
Saint Etienne
2.03
Bordeaux
2.39
Paris Saint Germain is 0.32 goals better than Nantes in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paris Saint Germain
For 5.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 10.6 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nantes
For 5.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris Saint Germain
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.2
9.4
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.8
24.1
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (50)
9.8
10.2
9.4
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.8
24.1
21.6
% over line
50%
56%
44%
52%
48%
56%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
48%
52%
44%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
26.9
25.8
28.0
vs Stronger (23)
9.6
9.2
10.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
26.1
25.7
26.5
vs Similar (21)
9.6
9.1
10.2
3.9
3.5
4.2
27.1
25.3
29.1
vs Weaker (6)
8.7
9.0
8.3
4.7
5.3
4.0
29.0
28.3
29.7
% over line
52%
46%
58%
72%
65%
79%
86%
81%
92%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
28%
35%
21%
14%
19%
8%
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Montpellier
10.5
Lyon
10.3
Bordeaux
10.2
Saint Etienne
10.0
Stade Brestois 29
9.9
Lens
9.9
Metz
9.8
Paris Saint Germain
9.8
Nice
9.8
Marseille
9.7
Strasbourg
9.7
Nantes
9.5
Rennes
9.5
Lille
9.2
Lorient
9.2
Angers
9.1
Reims
9.1
Clermont Foot
9.0
Estac Troyes
8.9
Monaco
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lens
4.8
Marseille
4.8
Monaco
4.6
Estac Troyes
4.5
Metz
4.5
Lille
4.4
Montpellier
4.3
Lorient
4.2
Nantes
4.2
Saint Etienne
4.2
Paris Saint Germain
4.1
Rennes
4.1
Lyon
4.0
Angers
4.0
Reims
4.0
Bordeaux
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.9
Nice
3.7
Strasbourg
3.6
Clermont Foot
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
28.6
Saint Etienne
27.0
Nantes
26.9
Metz
26.1
Monaco
25.6
Rennes
25.5
Montpellier
25.5
Lens
25.5
Angers
25.2
Lorient
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.9
Lille
24.7
Marseille
24.7
Strasbourg
24.6
Bordeaux
24.5
Clermont Foot
24.2
Lyon
24.2
Nice
23.7
Reims
23.7
Paris Saint Germain
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.5%
Under 9.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.3%
Under 3.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
71.9%
Under 21.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paris Saint Germain
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.30
0.93
0.29
1.38
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (30)
1.17
0.30
0.93
0.29
1.38
0.31
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.56
0.62
0.86
0.36
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.85
0.25
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.31
0.86
0.29
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paris Saint Germain
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (30)
1.07
0.70
1.29
0.71
0.88
0.69
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.75
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.80
0.40
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.92
0.86
0.71
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paris Saint Germain · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia31%
Désiré Doué29%
Bradley Barcola26%
Gonçalo Ramos21%
Nuno Mendes16%
Senny Mayulu15%
João Neves14%
Ibrahim Mbaye11%
Vitinha11%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Dro Fernández8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Marquinhos7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
Fabián Ruiz6%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Willian Pacho5%
Ilya Zabarnyi3%
Lucas Hernández0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Zabarnyi19%
Achraf Hakimi16%
Nuno Mendes13%
Lucas Hernández11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia9%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Gonçalo Ramos7%
Marquinhos7%
Bradley Barcola7%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Senny Mayulu5%
Matvey Safonov4%
João Neves3%
Désiré Doué3%
Vitinha2%
Ousmane Dembélé0%
Willian Pacho0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Ibrahim Mbaye0%
Dro Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ousmane Dembélé27%
Achraf Hakimi26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22%
Nuno Mendes18%
Désiré Doué18%
Fabián Ruiz16%
Quentin Ndjantou14%
Vitinha13%
João Neves11%
Bradley Barcola11%
Kang-in Lee11%
Senny Mayulu10%
Warren Zaïre-Emery10%
Lucas Hernández8%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Ibrahim Mbaye4%
Willian Pacho2%
Gonçalo Ramos2%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Dro Fernández0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Désiré Doué26%
Gonçalo Ramos26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia24%
Bradley Barcola20%
Senny Mayulu15%
Vitinha15%
Nuno Mendes11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Kang-in Lee8%
Ibrahim Mbaye7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
João Neves6%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Warren Zaïre-Emery2%
Lucas Hernández0%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Willian Pacho0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Quentin Ndjantou0%
Dro Fernández0%
Nantes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Killian Corredor33%
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahmed Deuff33%
Frédéric Guilbert25%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahereba Guirassy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Lucas Perrin25%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Sissoko50%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Wilitty Younoussa0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
CF (21)
€15m
Paris Saint Germain's squad is €1396m more valuable than Nantes's (€1477m vs €82m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
ET (7)
€7m
CF (5)
€2m
Paris Saint Germain's attack is €607m more valuable than Nantes's (€638m vs €31m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
CF (4)
€3m
Paris Saint Germain's midfield is €414m more valuable than Nantes's (€430m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
Paris Saint Germain's defence is €375m more valuable than Nantes's (€409m vs €34m).
France: Ligue 1 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Marseille
Monaco
Nice
Rennes
Strasbourg
Lyon
Lens
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Reims
Montpellier
Angers
Estac Troyes
Lorient
Clermont Foot
Saint Etienne
Metz
Bordeaux