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Partick vs Ayr Result & Analysis

Date: 02/10/2021
Time: 15:00
Final 4-0
Partick
Partick
Vs
42%
27%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
A
Ayr
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Partick win✓ Hit
42.5%
Avg Implied 48.0% · @ 1.93
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.45
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.67
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PartickPartick

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D50W23L32W30W13L30W13L02L23LA·COV27/04H·FAL29/04A·MON04/05H·QUE31/07A·DUN07/08A·ARB21/08H·MOR28/08A·INV11/09H·KIL18/09A·RAI26/09← League OneChampionship →
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.071.930.801.671.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.961.132.080.831.821.45
vs Weaker (7)1.290.861.330.671.251.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L00D22D02L22D01L02L31W20W00DA·ARB17/04H·QUE24/04A·INV30/04A·KIL02/08H·ARB07/08A·INV21/08H·RAI07/09H·DUN11/09A·HAM18/09H·MOR25/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.330.931.071.271.60
vs Stronger (3)1.002.670.001.001.503.50
vs Similar (20)1.250.901.090.911.440.89
vs Weaker (7)0.712.000.671.670.752.25
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.87+4.5%
Under 2.5
45.3%
@ 1.88-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
Partick goals ↓
Ayr goals →
01234
06.8%6.2%4.8%2.1%0.7%
17.7%13%7.5%3.3%1.1%
27.0%9.1%5.9%2.6%0.8%
33.6%4.7%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.4%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partick goals (down), columns = Ayr goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kilmarnock
1.86
Arbroath
1.81
Inverness CT
1.64
Partick
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.39
Hamilton
1.17
Morton
1.11
Ayr
1.08
Dunfermline
0.97
Queen of Sth
0.92
Partick is 0.36 points better than Ayr in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arbroath
1.50
Inverness CT
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.39
Partick
1.28
Raith Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.08
Hamilton
1.06
Dunfermline
1.00
Queen of Sth
1.00
Morton
1.00
Partick is 0.19 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.08).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.75
Arbroath
0.78
Inverness CT
0.94
Partick
1.11
Raith Rvs
1.22
Morton
1.31
Ayr
1.44
Dunfermline
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.50
Partick is 0.33 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.44).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

PartickPartick

For 4.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.5

ðŸšĐ Corners

170658412524310741031431211123771714473A·RAIH·KILA·INVH·MORA·ARBA·DUNH·QUEA·MONH·FALA·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 0.9 · Total 3.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

5032221313121212415234403235A·RAIH·KILA·INVH·MORA·ARBA·DUNH·QUEA·MONH·FALA·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

25081681010151010111399961014912121324182520241815242125A·RAIH·KILA·INVH·MORA·ARBA·DUNH·QUEA·MONH·FALA·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Ayr

For 3.5 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

150451648643634312544421197121097159813H·MORA·HAMH·DUNH·RAIA·INVH·ARBA·KILA·INVH·QUEA·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70132222222243233220444447552H·MORA·HAMH·DUNH·RAIA·INVH·ARBA·KILA·INVH·QUEA·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

26057911107151113815101271410118151112201726212519241926H·MORA·HAMH·DUNH·RAIA·INVH·ARBA·KILA·INVH·QUEA·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PartickPartick

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.69.83.02.93.220.018.921.1
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (41)10.110.310.03.02.93.120.018.921.2
vs Weaker (9)10.612.29.23.13.03.220.019.220.6
% over line62%62%62%34%29%38%40%33%46%
% under line38%38%38%66%71%62%60%67%54%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.010.010.03.43.53.221.322.520.0
vs Stronger (3)11.38.013.02.04.01.022.727.020.5
vs Similar (36)9.710.38.83.43.53.420.922.019.4
vs Weaker (11)10.58.812.03.53.43.522.423.421.5
% over line52%50%54%54%62%46%48%58%38%
% under line48%50%46%46%38%54%52%42%62%
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dunfermline
11.3
Raith Rvs
11.0
Hamilton
10.5
Queen of Sth
10.4
Morton
10.3
Partick
10.2
Kilmarnock
10.2
Inverness CT
10.0
Ayr
10.0
Arbroath
9.3

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.1
Kilmarnock
3.6
Inverness CT
3.4
Ayr
3.4
Queen of Sth
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Hamilton
3.2
Partick
3.0
Dunfermline
3.0
Morton
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Kilmarnock
25.5
Hamilton
24.5
Arbroath
22.9
Raith Rvs
22.9
Inverness CT
22.6
Ayr
21.3
Queen of Sth
20.7
Dunfermline
20.1
Partick
20.0
Morton
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.6%
Under 9.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
40.0%
Under 21.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PartickPartick

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D30W12L21W20W11D10W10W00D01LA·COV27/04H·FAL29/04A·MON04/05H·QUE31/07A·DUN07/08A·ARB21/08H·MOR28/08A·INV11/09H·KIL18/09A·RAI26/09← League OneChampionship →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.800.400.600.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.830.520.920.330.730.73
vs Weaker (7)0.290.290.330.670.250.00
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D11D00D02L00D02L21W00D00DA·ARB17/04H·QUE24/04A·INV30/04A·KIL02/08H·ARB07/08A·INV21/08H·RAI07/09H·DUN11/09A·HAM18/09H·MOR25/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.630.530.600.330.67
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (20)0.600.450.730.550.440.33
vs Weaker (7)0.141.290.001.000.251.50
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PartickPartick

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W11D11D10W02L20W03L02L22DA·COV27/04H·FAL29/04A·MON04/05H·QUE31/07A·DUN07/08A·ARB21/08H·MOR28/08A·INV11/09H·KIL18/09A·RAI26/09← League OneChampionship →
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.601.130.401.070.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.130.611.170.501.090.73
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D02L20W01L00D10W20W00DA·ARB17/04H·QUE24/04A·INV30/04A·KIL02/08H·ARB07/08A·INV21/08H·RAI07/09H·DUN11/09A·HAM18/09H·MOR25/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.400.470.930.93
vs Stronger (3)1.002.330.001.001.503.00
vs Similar (20)0.650.450.360.361.000.56
vs Weaker (7)0.570.710.670.670.500.75
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards87.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls86.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.579.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards75.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls75.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners71.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (9)
€3m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (5)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
PAR wins
1
Draws
5
AYR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Partick vs Ayr · H/A from PAR
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/20HPAR Vs Ayr1-1
02/11/19AAyr Vs PAR4-1
31/08/19HPAR Vs Ayr2-3
27/04/19HPAR Vs Ayr1-2
23/04/19AAyr Vs PAR0-1
27/10/18HPAR Vs Ayr0-1
04/08/18AAyr Vs PAR2-0

PartickPartick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/21ARaith Rvs Vs PAR3-2
18/09/21HPAR Vs Kilmarnock0-2
11/09/21AInverness CT Vs PAR3-1
28/08/21HPAR Vs Morton3-0
21/08/21AArbroath Vs PAR3-1
07/08/21ADunfermline Vs PAR0-3
31/07/21HPAR Vs Queen of Sth3-2
04/05/21AMontrose Vs PAR3-2
29/04/21HPAR Vs Falkirk5-0
27/04/21ACove Rangers Vs PAR2-2

A
Ayr

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/21HAYR Vs Morton0-0
18/09/21AHamilton Vs AYR0-2
11/09/21HAYR Vs Dunfermline3-1
07/09/21HAYR Vs Raith Rvs0-2
21/08/21AInverness CT Vs AYR1-0
07/08/21HAYR Vs Arbroath2-2
02/08/21AKilmarnock Vs AYR2-0
30/04/21AInverness CT Vs AYR2-2
24/04/21HAYR Vs Queen of Sth0-0
17/04/21AArbroath Vs AYR4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Partick
Partick
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.46
HomeWWWWL1.58
AwayLWLLL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%42%38%
AVG goals2.862.623.08
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %54%46%62%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.561.581.54
Conceded1.301.041.54
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners10.2210.629.85
Cards3.042.923.15
A
Ayr
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.12
HomeDDLWD1.23
AwayLDLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%27%25%
AVG goals2.361.962.79
Over 1.5 %72%62%83%
Over 2.5 %38%35%42%
Over 3.5 %26%15%38%
Scored1.061.001.12
Conceded1.300.961.67
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet30%31%29%
Corners9.969.969.96
Cards3.363.463.25

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KilmarnockKilmarnock3667
56%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
67%
36%
14%
9.9
47%
3.2
36%
22.6
64%
7
3231.40.8
-
2ArbroathArbroath3665
47%
1.8
5428+26
2.3
61%
44%
22%
10.3
58%
3.3
50%
21.8
47%
1
0001.50.8
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3659
44%
1.6
5334+19
2.4
64%
47%
22%
8.8
42%
3.3
39%
21.9
50%
1
0001.50.9
-
4PartickPartick3652
39%
1.4
4640+6
2.4
56%
44%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
20.7
44%
3
1111.31.1
-
5
RR
Raith Rvs
3650
33%
1.4
4444+0
2.4
67%
39%
22%
10.2
53%
3.7
58%
21.2
47%
0
0001.21.2
-
6
H
Hamilton
3642
28%
1.2
3853-15
2.5
69%
42%
25%
10.4
47%
3.9
56%
23.2
61%
0
0001.11.5
-
7MortonMorton3640
25%
1.1
3647-11
2.3
64%
42%
22%
10.4
61%
2.8
31%
20.1
33%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
3639
25%
1.1
3952-13
2.5
81%
47%
28%
10.2
61%
3.4
53%
20.3
39%
0
0001.11.4
-
9DunfermlineDunfermline3635
19%
1.0
3653-17
2.5
72%
47%
25%
10.1
56%
3.2
42%
21.1
50%
4
2021.01.5
-
10
QO
Queen of Sth
3633
22%
0.9
3654-18
2.5
67%
50%
19%
10.6
64%
2.8
28%
19.7
36%
0
0001.01.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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