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Partick vs Ayr Result & Analysis

Date: 01/02/2022
Time: 19:45
Final 1-0
Partick
Partick
Vs
52%
28%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
A
Ayr
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Partick win✓ Hit
51.9%
Avg Implied 56.0% · @ 1.66
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.70
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr win✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.91
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PartickPartick

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D10W40W10W00D02L10W22D11DA·MOR26/10H·INV30/10A·KIL06/11A·AYR13/11H·HAM20/11A·QUE04/12H·ARB11/12H·RAI18/12A·HAM08/01H·KIL14/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.970.931.870.602.071.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)2.080.922.000.582.151.23
vs Weaker (5)1.401.001.330.671.501.50
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D04L03L22D11D03L20W10W02L11DH·INV06/11H·PAR13/11A·DUN20/11A·MOR04/12H·HAM10/12A·QUE18/12H·RAI26/12H·ARB08/01H·MOR15/01A·HAM29/01
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.630.941.311.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.911.610.771.311.102.00
vs Weaker (7)1.141.711.671.330.752.00
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.4%
@ 1.93-6.1%
Under 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.82+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.0%
No
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0 ✓
13.0%
2-0
10.8%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.1%
Partick goals ↓
Ayr goals →
01234
011%6.7%3.4%1.0%0.2%
113%13%5.1%1.5%0.3%
211%9.2%3.9%1.1%0.2%
35.5%4.7%2.0%0.6%0.1%
42.1%1.8%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partick goals (down), columns = Ayr goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kilmarnock
1.86
Arbroath
1.81
Inverness CT
1.64
Partick
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.39
Hamilton
1.17
Morton
1.11
Ayr
1.08
Dunfermline
0.97
Queen of Sth
0.92
Partick is 0.36 points better than Ayr in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arbroath
1.50
Inverness CT
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.39
Partick
1.28
Raith Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.08
Hamilton
1.06
Dunfermline
1.00
Queen of Sth
1.00
Morton
1.00
Partick is 0.19 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.08).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.75
Arbroath
0.78
Inverness CT
0.94
Partick
1.11
Raith Rvs
1.22
Morton
1.31
Ayr
1.44
Dunfermline
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.50
Partick is 0.33 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.44).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

PartickPartick

For 6.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

13072759587366446753469129131012813810H·KILA·HAMH·RAIH·ARBA·QUEH·HAMA·AYRA·KILH·INVA·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5

ðŸŸĻ Cards

502112141221322322133353352533H·KILA·HAMH·RAIH·ARBA·QUEH·HAMA·AYRA·KILH·INVA·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

29011111316109991211191011121011141513522291918232923212918H·KILA·HAMH·RAIH·ARBA·QUEH·HAMA·AYRA·KILH·INVA·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Ayr

For 3.6 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

1302864393231067471844431010125131311987A·HAMH·MORH·ARBH·RAIA·QUEH·HAMA·MORA·DUNH·PARH·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

603241224221112215414621223A·HAMH·MORH·ARBH·RAIA·QUEH·HAMA·MORA·DUNH·PARH·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 8.7 · Total 19.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

2701281181111155104141199651211121520192220142518112327A·HAMH·MORH·ARBH·RAIA·QUEH·HAMA·MORA·DUNH·PARH·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PartickPartick

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.99.73.43.33.521.320.222.4
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (42)10.410.810.03.43.33.621.119.822.5
vs Weaker (8)10.111.88.53.43.53.222.022.221.8
% over line58%56%60%42%40%44%50%40%60%
% under line42%44%40%58%60%56%50%60%40%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.39.810.93.23.23.220.922.419.5
vs Stronger (3)11.38.013.02.04.01.022.727.020.5
vs Similar (36)10.210.110.43.33.33.420.321.618.8
vs Weaker (11)10.49.011.53.22.83.522.524.221.0
% over line60%48%72%52%56%48%42%56%28%
% under line40%52%28%48%44%52%58%44%72%
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dunfermline
11.0
Raith Rvs
10.8
Queen of Sth
10.7
Ayr
10.3
Partick
10.3
Morton
10.3
Hamilton
10.2
Arbroath
10.0
Kilmarnock
9.9
Inverness CT
9.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.3
Inverness CT
3.6
Partick
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Hamilton
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.4
Ayr
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.2
Morton
2.9
Dunfermline
2.9

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Kilmarnock
25.0
Hamilton
24.4
Inverness CT
23.3
Arbroath
23.1
Raith Rvs
22.6
Dunfermline
21.6
Partick
21.3
Queen of Sth
21.1
Ayr
20.9
Morton
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.2%
Under 9.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
34.4%
Under 21.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PartickPartick

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W20W00D00D01L00D10W00DA·MOR26/10H·INV30/10A·KIL06/11A·AYR13/11H·HAM20/11A·QUE04/12H·ARB11/12H·RAI18/12A·HAM08/01H·KIL14/01
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.370.800.270.800.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.880.360.920.170.850.54
vs Weaker (5)0.400.400.330.670.500.00
Clean sheet %73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L02L01L01L02L10W10W01L01LH·INV06/11H·PAR13/11A·DUN20/11A·MOR04/12H·HAM10/12A·QUE18/12H·RAI26/12H·ARB08/01H·MOR15/01A·HAM29/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.900.380.750.211.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.260.830.310.620.201.10
vs Weaker (7)0.431.140.671.330.251.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PartickPartick

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D20W10W00D01L10W12L11DA·MOR26/10H·INV30/10A·KIL06/11A·AYR13/11H·HAM20/11A·QUE04/12H·ARB11/12H·RAI18/12A·HAM08/01H·KIL14/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.571.070.331.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.200.561.080.421.310.69
vs Weaker (5)1.000.601.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L21W10W01L10W00D01L10WH·INV06/11H·PAR13/11A·DUN20/11A·MOR04/12H·HAM10/12A·QUE18/12H·RAI26/12H·ARB08/01H·MOR15/01A·HAM29/01
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.560.560.790.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.650.780.460.690.900.90
vs Weaker (7)0.710.571.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls89.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards88.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls79.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.578.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards76.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners74.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (9)
€3m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (5)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
PAR wins
1
Draws
4
AYR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Partick vs Ayr · H/A from PAR
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/21AAyr Vs PAR0-4
02/10/21HPAR Vs Ayr4-0
31/01/20HPAR Vs Ayr1-1
02/11/19AAyr Vs PAR4-1
31/08/19HPAR Vs Ayr2-3
27/04/19HPAR Vs Ayr1-2
23/04/19AAyr Vs PAR0-1
27/10/18HPAR Vs Ayr0-1

PartickPartick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/01/22HPAR Vs Kilmarnock1-1
08/01/22AHamilton Vs PAR2-2
18/12/21HPAR Vs Raith Rvs1-0
11/12/21HPAR Vs Arbroath0-2
04/12/21AQueen of Sth Vs PAR0-0
20/11/21HPAR Vs Hamilton1-0
13/11/21AAyr Vs PAR0-4
06/11/21AKilmarnock Vs PAR0-1
30/10/21HPAR Vs Inverness CT0-0
26/10/21AMorton Vs PAR0-0

A
Ayr

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/01/22AHamilton Vs AYR1-1
15/01/22HAYR Vs Morton0-2
08/01/22HAYR Vs Arbroath1-0
26/12/21HAYR Vs Raith Rvs2-0
18/12/21AQueen of Sth Vs AYR3-0
10/12/21HAYR Vs Hamilton1-1
04/12/21AMorton Vs AYR2-2
20/11/21ADunfermline Vs AYR3-0
13/11/21HAYR Vs Partick0-4
06/11/21HAYR Vs Inverness CT2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Partick
Partick
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDD1.56
HomeDWLWD1.72
AwayDWWDD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.562.322.80
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %44%36%52%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.581.521.64
Conceded0.980.801.16
BTTS42%36%48%
Clean Sheet46%52%40%
Corners10.3210.929.72
Cards3.423.323.52
A
Ayr
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.02
HomeLDWWL1.24
AwayLLDLD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals2.502.082.92
Over 1.5 %78%68%88%
Over 2.5 %42%32%52%
Over 3.5 %28%20%36%
Scored1.020.961.08
Conceded1.481.121.84
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners10.329.7610.88
Cards3.223.243.20

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KilmarnockKilmarnock3667
56%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
67%
36%
14%
9.9
47%
3.2
36%
22.6
64%
7
3231.40.8
-
2ArbroathArbroath3665
47%
1.8
5428+26
2.3
61%
44%
22%
10.3
58%
3.3
50%
21.8
47%
1
0001.50.8
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3659
44%
1.6
5334+19
2.4
64%
47%
22%
8.8
42%
3.3
39%
21.9
50%
1
0001.50.9
-
4PartickPartick3652
39%
1.4
4640+6
2.4
56%
44%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
20.7
44%
3
1111.31.1
-
5
RR
Raith Rvs
3650
33%
1.4
4444+0
2.4
67%
39%
22%
10.2
53%
3.7
58%
21.2
47%
0
0001.21.2
-
6
H
Hamilton
3642
28%
1.2
3853-15
2.5
69%
42%
25%
10.4
47%
3.9
56%
23.2
61%
0
0001.11.5
-
7MortonMorton3640
25%
1.1
3647-11
2.3
64%
42%
22%
10.4
61%
2.8
31%
20.1
33%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
3639
25%
1.1
3952-13
2.5
81%
47%
28%
10.2
61%
3.4
53%
20.3
39%
0
0001.11.4
-
9DunfermlineDunfermline3635
19%
1.0
3653-17
2.5
72%
47%
25%
10.1
56%
3.2
42%
21.1
50%
4
2021.01.5
-
10
QO
Queen of Sth
3633
22%
0.9
3654-18
2.5
67%
50%
19%
10.6
64%
2.8
28%
19.7
36%
0
0001.01.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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