Partick's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning run that includes a convincing 2-0 victory over Livingston. This momentum is reflected in the model's selection of a home win, which is the favored match result with a probability of 43%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals is also notable, with a probability of 78.8% and a significant edge of 10%. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%.
Partick has shown strength at home, scoring an average of 1.44 goals and conceding 0.67 goals per game against similar opponents. Livingston, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 1.83 goals per game against similar opponents. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals is likely driven by these defensive trends. The suggested picks also include a draw, with a probability of 30%, and an away win, with a probability of 27%.
Results analysis
Partick's 2-0 win extends their run of two consecutive victories, having previously defeated Livingston 2-0. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's call was also in line with the pre-match favourite, Partick. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.8%. However, the model's selection of the most likely score, 1-1, missed, with a probability of 14.2%. The expected total goals was 2.4, and the most likely total goals was 2.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Partick win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.29
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.37
Unibet
2.35
Dafabet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.32
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.22
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.40
William Hil
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Livingston win✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.89
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.13
1xBet
3.01
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Partick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.87
1.86
0.71
1.56
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.61
0.86
1.85
0.62
1.40
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.70
1.75
1.75
0.79
1.64
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.38
2.00
2.50
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.60
1.09
1.64
0.89
1.56
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.00
8.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
@ 1.24-5.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
@ 3.71+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.17
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.9%
@ 1.81-9.7%
Under 2.5
58.1%
@ 1.93+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.96
Unibet
1.91
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
@ 2.94-10.4%
Under 3.5
78.8%
@ 1.36+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
@ 1.62-8.6%
No
51.6%
@ 2.15+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.65
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
No
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.02+6.8%
1-0
11.4%@ 8.18+6.0%
0-0
10.8%@ 9.63+6.1%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.51+3.4%
2-0 ✓
8.5%@ 11.23+4.6%
0-1
8.3%@ 9.27+3.5%
1-2
6.5%@ 9.70+2.0%
0-2
4.9%@ 14.35+1.8%
Partick goals ↓
Livingston goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.3%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.5%
8.7%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.8%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partick goals (down), columns = Livingston goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Partick is 0.13 points better than Livingston in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Partick is 0.02 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Partick is 0.05 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Partick
For 6.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Livingston
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Partick
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.6
11.2
1.0
1.0
0.9
18.4
18.6
18.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
10.9
10.6
11.2
1.0
1.1
1.0
18.4
18.6
18.2
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
70%
60%
80%
12%
12%
12%
20%
20%
20%
% under line
30%
40%
20%
88%
88%
88%
80%
80%
80%
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.5
3.4
3.5
3.2
25.4
27.6
23.5
vs Stronger (17)
11.7
12.0
11.4
4.8
4.9
4.6
25.4
26.9
23.9
vs Similar (31)
9.5
8.7
10.2
2.7
2.9
2.5
25.1
28.1
22.6
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
-
6.0
1.5
0.0
3.0
31.0
-
31.0
% over line
56%
50%
62%
50%
56%
44%
72%
83%
62%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
50%
44%
56%
28%
17%
38%
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Partick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.37
1.21
0.36
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.32
1.23
0.23
0.53
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.69
1.06
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.85
0.27
1.00
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Partick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.64
0.36
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.54
0.62
0.38
0.87
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.06
0.69
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
0.82
0.64
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.8%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+10.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Livingston · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jeremy Bokila22%
Connor McLennan19%
Lewis Smith17%
Robbie Muirhead15%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Brooklyn Kabongolo12%
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Stevie May6%
Mahamadou Susoho6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Mohammad Sylla3%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor McLennan38%
Mahamadou Susoho33%
Cristian Montaño27%
Adam Montgomery25%
Macaulay Tait24%
Emmanuel Danso23%
Danny Finlayson23%
Jeremy Bokila22%
Robbie Muirhead21%
Brooklyn Kabongolo19%
Stevie May18%
Ryan McGowan17%
Babacar Fati17%
Mohammad Sylla16%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Joshua Zimmerman14%
Samson Lawal13%
Scott Arfield12%
Jérôme Prior11%
Cammy Kerr9%
Lewis Smith6%
Tete Yengi5%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jon Nouble0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barrie McKay29%
Jon Nouble20%
Graham Carey14%
Adam Montgomery12%
Cristian Montaño12%
Macaulay Tait9%
Emmanuel Danso8%
Joshua Brenet7%
Robbie Muirhead6%
Stevie May6%
Scott Pittman6%
Lewis Smith6%
Ryan McGowan4%
Danny Finlayson3%
Jérôme Prior3%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Connor McLennan0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Babacar Fati0%
Tete Yengi0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Samson Lawal0%
Brooklyn Kabongolo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Robbie Muirhead9%
Stevie May9%
Connor McLennan6%
Brooklyn Kabongolo6%
Lewis Smith6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Graham Carey0%
Scott Pittman0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Partick's squad is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Partick and Livingston have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Partick and Livingston have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Partick and Livingston have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park