Partick’s defensive record at home, conceding only 0.45 goals per game against similarly matched opposition, sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win with a 57 % probability, while draws and away wins sit at 28 % and 15 % respectively. The expected total of 2.2 goals translates to an average of two goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-0 for Partick at 16.3 %. Partick has scored 1.73 goals per home match and conceded 0.45, whereas Raith Rovers, on the road, average 0.5 goals scored and 0.93 conceded against similar opponents. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 %), Under 5.5 (97.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (97.2 %), Home +2 handicap (95.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.2 %), and Under 4.5 (93.1 %). Partick’s recent draw and Raith Rovers’ two-game winning streak add intrigue, but the odds still favour a Partick victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Partick win
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers win
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Partick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.77
1.62
0.54
1.41
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
0.73
1.58
0.42
1.36
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
2.20
1.00
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.00
2.29
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
60.4%
Under 1.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.2%
Under 2.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.2%
Under 3.5
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.0%
No
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.9%
0-0
14.7%
2-0
13.3%
1-1
12.5%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
3.7%
Partick goals ↓
Raith Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
7.0%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
18%
12%
3.4%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
7.9%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
3
6.2%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
4
2.2%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partick goals (down), columns = Raith Rovers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Partick is 0.60 points better than Raith Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Partick is 0.31 goals better than Raith Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Partick is 0.21 goals better than Raith Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Partick
For 6.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Partick
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.2
11.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
18.0
18.0
18.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.8
10.2
11.2
0.9
0.9
1.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
62%
50%
75%
10%
9%
11%
25%
25%
25%
% under line
38%
50%
25%
90%
91%
89%
75%
75%
75%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.7%
Under 9.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.2%
Under 3.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
46.8%
Under 21.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Partick or Draw
85.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
30%
15%
covers Partick + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partick or Raith Rovers
70.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
30%
15%
covers Partick + Raith Rovers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Raith Rovers
44.6%
Avg Implied -
55%
30%
15%
covers Draw + Raith Rovers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Partick over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Partick, so a minus line means Partick give that many goals of a start and Raith Rovers receive them. At -1, Partick must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Partick win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Partick)
Partick -2
11.0%
Draw -2
17.4%
Raith Rovers +2
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Partick)
Partick -1
28.4%
Draw -1
27.0%
Raith Rovers +1
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Partick)
Partick +1
85.2%
Draw +1
10.9%
Raith Rovers -1
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Partick)
Partick +2
96.1%
Draw +2
3.2%
Raith Rovers -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Partick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
1.08
0.38
0.65
0.41
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.35
1.08
0.25
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.87
0.53
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.54
0.86
0.50
0.21
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Partick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.54
0.15
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.38
0.50
0.17
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.33
0.47
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.46
1.43
0.50
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Partick's squad is €1m more valuable than Raith Rovers's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Partick and Raith Rovers have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Partick and Raith Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Partick and Raith Rovers have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park