Partick’s defensive record at home shows a balanced 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against weaker opposition, while Stenhousemuir’s away form is strong, averaging 1.5 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded against stronger teams. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected 1.9 goals and the most likely total of 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Partick, with a 15.8% chance. Home win is the favoured result at 45%, draw 33%, and away win 22%. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 5.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.9%), Under 4.5 (95.3%), and Home +2 handicap (93.1%). The recent form notes that Partick is coming off a draw, while Stenhousemuir are on a two-game winning run.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Partick win
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir win
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Partick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.77
1.62
0.54
1.41
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
0.73
1.58
0.42
1.36
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.86
vs Stronger (29)
1.48
0.69
1.47
0.53
1.50
0.86
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.0%
Under 1.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.7%
Under 2.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.2%
Under 3.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.1%
No
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.7%
0-0
15.7%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
4.9%
0-2
4.1%
Partick goals ↓
Stenhousemuir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
9.6%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
2
10%
7.6%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
3.9%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.2%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Partick goals (down), columns = Stenhousemuir goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Partick is 0.60 points better than Stenhousemuir in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Partick is 0.25 goals better than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Partick is 0.04 goals better than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Partick
For 6.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stenhousemuir
For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Partick
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.7
11.2
0.7
0.7
0.8
18.4
19.0
18.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
11.0
10.7
11.2
0.8
0.7
0.9
18.4
19.0
18.0
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
71%
67%
75%
8%
5%
11%
29%
33%
25%
% under line
29%
33%
25%
92%
95%
89%
71%
67%
75%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.0
8.7
2.7
2.3
3.2
27.0
27.0
27.0
vs Stronger (49)
8.9
9.0
8.7
2.8
2.4
3.2
27.0
27.0
27.0
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
46%
43%
40%
33%
48%
81%
85%
79%
% under line
56%
54%
57%
60%
67%
52%
19%
15%
21%
This opponent (Partick) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Partick or Draw
77.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
33%
22%
covers Partick + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partick or Stenhousemuir
67.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
33%
22%
covers Partick + Stenhousemuir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stenhousemuir
55.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
33%
22%
covers Draw + Stenhousemuir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Partick over/under 0.5
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Partick, so a minus line means Partick give that many goals of a start and Stenhousemuir receive them. At -1, Partick must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Partick win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Partick)
Partick -2
6.7%
Draw -2
13.4%
Stenhousemuir +2
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Partick)
Partick -1
20.1%
Draw -1
24.5%
Stenhousemuir +1
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Partick)
Partick +1
77.6%
Draw +1
15.3%
Stenhousemuir -1
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Partick)
Partick +2
92.9%
Draw +2
5.5%
Stenhousemuir -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Partick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
1.08
0.38
0.65
0.41
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.35
1.08
0.25
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.27
0.56
0.19
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (29)
0.79
0.28
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.36
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Partick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.54
0.15
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.38
0.50
0.17
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.41
0.87
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Partick over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Partick's squad is €3m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€3m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Partick and Stenhousemuir have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Partick's midfield is €1m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Partick and Stenhousemuir have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park