Penafiel are the clear favourites, with a 43% chance of victory, a 29% draw probability and a 29% chance of an Academica win. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, suggesting a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% probability. Penafiel’s home form is solid, scoring on average 1.17 goals and conceding 1.83 against stronger opposition, while Academica, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8% with a 7% edge), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (95.2% with a 1% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.1% with a 4% edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penafiel win
42.7%
Avg Implied 43.3% · @ 2.13
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Dafabet
2.16
1xBet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.12
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
Betano
3.15
Academica win
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.37
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.48
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.42
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
1.20
0.80
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (10)
1.70
0.90
1.60
0.40
1.80
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.90
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.57
1.19
1.25
1.14
1.93
vs Stronger (26)
1.08
1.58
1.00
1.36
1.17
1.83
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.50
2.50
0.50
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.3%
@ 1.38+7.1%
Under 1.5
25.7%
@ 2.82-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.82
Betano
2.82
BetVictor
2.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.8%
@ 2.21+5.5%
Under 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.62-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.1%
@ 4.01+3.0%
Under 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.21-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.25
Betfair
4.20
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Both teams to score
Yes
53.3%
@ 1.89+4.4%
No
46.7%
@ 1.80-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
No
Unibet
1.86
Betfair
1.83
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 5.76+6.0%
1-0
9.6%@ 6.08+2.3%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.53+3.8%
0-0
8.8%@ 7.47+2.8%
2-0
7.8%@ 9.10+3.0%
0-1
7.4%@ 8.10+1.9%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.36+3.2%
2-2
5.1%@ 15.00+2.2%
Penafiel goals ↓
Academica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.4%
4.9%
1.9%
0.5%
1
9.6%
14%
7.1%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.0%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.8%
4.3%
2.5%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = Academica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Penafiel is 0.23 points better than Academica in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 0.98).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Penafiel is 0.24 goals better than Academica in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Penafiel is 0.46 goals better than Academica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 5.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Academica
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
9.9
13.7
4.7
4.3
5.1
22.9
24.6
21.2
vs Stronger (14)
9.2
9.0
10.0
4.7
4.7
4.7
23.9
28.4
12.5
vs Similar (35)
13.2
11.3
14.4
4.8
4.1
5.5
22.3
19.8
23.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
79%
62%
100%
60%
46%
73%
61%
67%
56%
% under line
21%
38%
0%
40%
54%
27%
39%
33%
44%
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (41)
-
-
-
0.3
0.5
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (36)
-
-
-
0.4
0.6
0.1
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
5%
9%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
95%
91%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Penafiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.6
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Chaves
6.1
Leixoes
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Sporting CP B
6.0
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.9
Farense
5.7
União de Leiria
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.5
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
Penafiel
22.9
FC Porto B
21.9
Portimonense
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.0%
@ 2.45+9.4%
Under 9.5
53.0%
@ 1.47-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.39
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.5%
Under 3.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.8%
Under 21.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Penafiel or Draw
71.3%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.1%
43%
29%
29%
covers Penafiel + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Penafiel or Academica
71.4%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.31
Edge
+0.7%
43%
29%
29%
covers Penafiel + Academica
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Draw or Academica
57.3%
Avg Implied 56.8% · @ 1.64
Edge
+0.4%
43%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Academica
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Penafiel over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
@ 1.27+3.6%
Under
23.6%
@ 3.40-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Penafiel over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
@ 2.34+2.8%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.53-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
BetVictor
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Betano
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Penafiel over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
@ 5.34+0.4%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.12-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.20
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Penafiel over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
@ 9.50-4.0%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Academica over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
@ 1.45+4.6%
Under
31.9%
@ 2.54-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
Betano
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
Academica over/under 1.5
Over
31.7%
@ 3.28+3.4%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.29-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Academica over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
@ 8.55+0.0%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.04-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Academica over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
@ 12.50-4.6%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Penafiel, so a minus line means Penafiel give that many goals of a start and Academica receive them. At -1, Penafiel must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Penafiel win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Penafiel)
Penafiel -2
8.2%
@ 9.90-0.9%
Draw -2
13.2%
@ 6.27-1.2%
Academica +2
78.7%
@ 1.17+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Bet365
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Penafiel)
Penafiel -1
21.3%
@ 4.03-0.2%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.55-3.0%
Academica +1
57.3%
@ 1.61+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.65
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.20
Away
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.49
Handicap +1 (Penafiel)
Penafiel +1
71.3%
@ 1.28+2.8%
Draw +1
16.7%
@ 4.57-2.5%
Academica -1
12.0%
@ 7.10-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
7.70
Unibet
5.10
Handicap +2 (Penafiel)
Penafiel +2
88.0%
@ 1.06-0.1%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 12.00+0.5%
Academica -2
3.7%
@ 23.00-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.20
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.40
0.50
0.30
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.62
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.77
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.92
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
@ 1.45+11.2%
Under 0.5
25.2%
@ 2.54-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
BetVictor
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.62
Pinnacle
2.59
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 3.21+5.1%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.30-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Under
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 8.35+2.0%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.04-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
William Hil
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.2%
@ 2.05+0.9%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.70-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
@ 6.63-5.9%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.08+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
@ 12.00-6.6%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Academica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.2%
@ 2.54+19.8%
Under
43.8%
@ 1.45-19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Academica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.6%
@ 9.50+6.8%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.03-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Academica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.70
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.62
0.62
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.58
0.81
0.50
0.71
0.67
0.92
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.75
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
@ 1.29+8.1%
Under 0.5
20.2%
@ 3.27-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
William Hil
3.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.0%
@ 2.38+6.9%
Under 1.5
54.0%
@ 1.52-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.7%
@ 5.40+1.6%
Under 2.5
81.3%
@ 1.11-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.0%
@ 1.72-5.7%
Under
52.0%
@ 2.00+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.0%
@ 4.55-8.3%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.16+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 9.75-7.2%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Academica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.0%
@ 2.09+12.6%
Under
43.0%
@ 1.67-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Academica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.8%
@ 6.73+10.0%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.08-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
6.90
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Academica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.5%
@ 12.00-1.4%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
+1.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-
+5.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-0.0%
Home +2 handicap
88.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+8.3%
Under 4.5
87.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-0.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-2.0%
Over 2.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-6.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-0.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.11
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-1.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.29
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+8.1%
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-
-
+2.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
1.27
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.08
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
-10.0%
Under 11.5 corners
75.9%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-6.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.8%
1.45
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
BetVictor
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
+11.2%
Over 1.5
74.3%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
+7.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
-3.0%
Over 3.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.4%
1.31
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+0.7%
Home or Draw
71.3%
1.28
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-1.1%
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
-
-
+2.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Penafiel's squad is €3m more valuable than Academica's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Penafiel and Academica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Penafiel and Academica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Penafiel's defence is €2m more valuable than Academica's (€3m vs €1m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lusitânia Lourosa
Sporting CP B
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves