This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.00
1.50
0.94
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
1.50
1.25
1.50
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.27
0.82
1.58
0.75
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0 ✓
11.4%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.4%
Penafiel goals ↓
Chaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
6.8%
2.6%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.4%
7.5%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.4%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = Chaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Penafiel is 0.18 points worse than Chaves in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Penafiel is 0.15 goals better than Chaves in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Penafiel is 0.38 goals worse than Chaves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Penafiel is 8.4 percentage points worse than Chaves in terms of average possession (47% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 5.3 · Against 7.8 · Total 13.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 6.9 · Against 7.5 · Total 14.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
For 7.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.2
11.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
15.7
16.6
14.8
vs Stronger (12)
8.8
8.3
10.0
2.5
3.1
1.6
13.3
18.2
7.2
vs Similar (37)
11.5
11.0
12.0
3.4
2.9
3.8
16.5
16.0
17.1
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
75%
46%
40%
52%
40%
39%
41%
% under line
44%
60%
25%
54%
60%
48%
60%
61%
59%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.1
12.1
3.3
2.8
3.9
16.5
17.4
15.4
vs Stronger (17)
10.7
9.4
12.2
4.1
3.3
5.0
17.6
21.1
14.1
vs Similar (33)
11.3
10.8
12.0
2.9
2.4
3.4
15.6
15.0
16.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
60%
75%
50%
48%
52%
53%
56%
50%
% under line
33%
40%
25%
50%
52%
48%
47%
44%
50%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torreense
11.8
Oliveirense
11.6
FC Porto B
11.3
Portimonense
11.2
Tondela
10.9
Chaves
10.7
Benfica B
10.6
União de Leiria
10.4
Pacos Ferreira
10.4
Penafiel
10.2
Academico Viseu
10.2
Vizela
9.9
Feirense
9.8
Maritimo
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Leixoes
9.3
Mafra
8.8
Felgueiras 1932
8.6
Alverca
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
6.2
Oliveirense
5.4
Maritimo
5.3
Leixoes
5.3
Chaves
5.2
União de Leiria
5.2
Torreense
5.2
Benfica B
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Penafiel
5.1
Vizela
4.9
Portimonense
4.9
Tondela
4.9
Feirense
4.5
FC Porto B
4.5
Academico Viseu
4.4
Alverca
4.2
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Mafra
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
23.0
Tondela
21.3
Pacos Ferreira
20.9
Vizela
19.5
Oliveirense
19.1
Feirense
18.9
União de Leiria
18.5
Academico Viseu
18.2
Maritimo
18.1
Portimonense
17.7
Chaves
17.7
Torreense
17.2
Penafiel
17.0
FC Porto B
17.0
Mafra
15.5
Benfica B
14.9
Felgueiras 1932
10.0
Alverca
7.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
76.9%
Under 3.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.4%
Under 21.5
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
1.00
0.93
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
1.00
1.33
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.73
1.00
0.82
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.36
0.29
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.71
0.33
0.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.68
0.36
0.36
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.06
0.44
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.32
1.25
0.25
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 19.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Leite40%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Robinho25%
Maga17%
Diogo Batista17%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rúben Pereira60%
Tiago Rodrigues57%
Maga33%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Edu Pinheiro33%
Reko29%
Robinho25%
Sodiq Fatai25%
Manuel Baldé25%
João Silva17%
Andre Silva17%
Ewerton0%
João Miguel0%
Zé Leite0%
Diogo Batista0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sodiq Fatai25%
Zé Leite20%
João Silva17%
Helder Suker14%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zé Leite20%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Tiba33%
André Ricardo33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Ruben Pina33%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Ktatau0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ktatau33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Vozinha25%
Carraça25%
Bruno Rodrigues25%
Pedro Tiba0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Leandro Sanca0%
André Ricardo0%
Ruben Pina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Tiba33%
Leandro Sanca33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Carraça25%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Ruben Pina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Sanca67%
Ruben Pina67%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Pedro Tiba0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Pedro Pinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Penafiel's squad is €4m less valuable than Chaves's (€5m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel's attack is €1m less valuable than Chaves's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel's midfield is €2m less valuable than Chaves's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Penafiel and Chaves have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses