This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.47
0.93
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.67
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.00
1.58
0.75
0.55
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.4%
Under 1.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
1-2 ✓
5.5%
3-0
4.5%
Penafiel goals ↓
Feirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.1%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.3%
2
10.0%
8.6%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.5%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = Feirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Penafiel is 0.12 points worse than Feirense in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Penafiel is 0.29 goals better than Feirense in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Penafiel is 0.38 goals worse than Feirense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Penafiel is 2.4 percentage points worse than Feirense in terms of average possession (47% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 6.2 · Against 8.5 · Total 14.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Feirense
For 4.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 6.2 · Against 7.5 · Total 13.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.9
10.7
3.4
3.4
3.4
17.4
18.1
16.7
vs Stronger (11)
7.5
8.0
7.0
3.0
3.3
2.6
16.1
15.5
16.8
vs Similar (38)
10.9
10.3
11.7
3.6
3.4
3.7
17.8
18.8
16.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
45%
56%
52%
48%
56%
46%
44%
47%
% under line
50%
55%
44%
48%
52%
44%
54%
56%
53%
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.7
8.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
20.6
19.8
21.4
vs Stronger (11)
12.4
16.0
10.0
3.6
2.0
5.0
16.4
12.8
21.0
vs Similar (39)
8.7
9.1
8.3
3.8
4.2
3.3
23.1
24.9
21.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
78%
60%
54%
56%
52%
67%
58%
75%
% under line
32%
22%
40%
46%
44%
48%
33%
42%
25%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torreense
11.2
Oliveirense
11.0
Portimonense
11.0
Tondela
10.7
Chaves
10.5
FC Porto B
10.5
Academico Viseu
10.5
Pacos Ferreira
10.4
União de Leiria
10.4
Vizela
10.2
Benfica B
10.2
Penafiel
10.2
Feirense
9.7
Leixoes
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Mafra
9.3
Maritimo
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
9.0
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Oliveirense
5.6
Leixoes
5.5
Maritimo
5.4
Chaves
5.3
Benfica B
5.3
Penafiel
5.2
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.1
União de Leiria
5.0
Pacos Ferreira
5.0
Portimonense
4.9
Vizela
4.8
FC Porto B
4.6
Feirense
4.6
Academico Viseu
4.5
Alverca
4.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Mafra
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
24.0
Tondela
23.3
Feirense
21.6
Vizela
20.9
Chaves
20.7
Pacos Ferreira
20.2
Oliveirense
19.8
União de Leiria
19.8
Maritimo
19.4
Academico Viseu
19.3
Portimonense
19.2
Torreense
19.0
FC Porto B
18.9
Penafiel
18.4
Mafra
17.9
Benfica B
16.7
Alverca
7.1
Felgueiras 1932
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.8%
Under 9.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.9%
Under 3.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
2.0%
Under 21.5
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
1.07
0.93
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
1.33
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.74
1.09
0.82
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.43
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.52
0.67
0.50
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.43
0.29
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.57
0.36
0.36
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.48
0.92
0.25
0.09
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 19.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Leite40%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Robinho25%
Maga17%
Diogo Batista17%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rúben Pereira60%
Tiago Rodrigues57%
Maga33%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Edu Pinheiro33%
Reko29%
Robinho25%
Sodiq Fatai25%
Manuel Baldé25%
João Silva17%
Andre Silva17%
Ewerton0%
João Miguel0%
Zé Leite0%
Diogo Batista0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sodiq Fatai25%
Zé Leite20%
João Silva17%
Helder Suker14%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zé Leite20%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Feirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Ricardo33%
Leandro Antunes29%
Stivan Petkov14%
Washington0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Cristian Tassano0%
Bruno Silva0%
Diga0%
Jorge Pereira0%
Cristian Ponde0%
Ruben Alves0%
João Costa0%
Zidane Banjaqui0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Lucas Cañizares0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Filipe Almeida0%
João Castro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Amine Rehmi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carlos Rentería33%
Lucas Cañizares33%
Tiago Ribeiro33%
Filipe Almeida33%
Emanuel Fernandes33%
Cristian Tassano17%
Diga14%
Stivan Petkov14%
Jorge Pereira14%
Leandro Antunes14%
Ruben Alves14%
Washington0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Bruno Silva0%
Cristian Ponde0%
João Costa0%
Zidane Banjaqui0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Henrique Jocu0%
João Castro0%
Amine Rehmi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Ponde33%
Leandro Antunes29%
Zidane Banjaqui25%
Ruben Alves14%
Washington0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Cristian Tassano0%
Bruno Silva0%
Diga0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Jorge Pereira0%
João Costa0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Lucas Cañizares0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Filipe Almeida0%
João Castro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Amine Rehmi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zidane Banjaqui50%
Diga29%
Leandro Antunes14%
Washington0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Cristian Tassano0%
Bruno Silva0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Jorge Pereira0%
Cristian Ponde0%
Ruben Alves0%
João Costa0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Lucas Cañizares0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Filipe Almeida0%
João Castro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Amine Rehmi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Penafiel and Feirense have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel and Feirense have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel and Feirense have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Penafiel and Feirense have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses