Penafiel hosts Sporting CP B in the Portugal Segunda Liga on August 23. Sporting CP B's recent 2-game winning run is a notable storyline, but their away form has been relatively poor, conceding 0.64 goals per game against weaker opponents. Penafiel's home form has been strong, scoring 2 goals per game at home against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 39% chance of an away win, a 34% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of a home win. The expected total goals is 1.9, suggesting a low-scoring match. The most likely score is 0-0, with a 16.6% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Penafiel has averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded at home, while Sporting CP B has averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.64 conceded away against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 87.8% probability, Over 21.5 fouls, with a 78.3% probability, Over 3.5 cards, with a 75.8% probability, and Under 2.5, with a 70.9% probability. The home win percentage is 26%, the draw percentage is 34%, and the away win percentage is 39%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Sporting CP B, was wrong as Penafiel secured a 2-0 home victory, extending their recent win streak. The model had given the away side a 39 % chance of triumph, but the result proved a home win. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.9 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 99.0 %, Under 5.5 hit at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.7 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.4 %. The match finished 2-0, a home win that surprised the model’s prediction.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penafiel win✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied 37.6% · @ 2.44
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.52
Dafabet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.47
Draw✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.12
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
Dafabet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Betano
3.20
Sporting CP B win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.78
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.90
Dafabet
2.90
Superbet
2.85
1xBet
2.84
Betano
2.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.13
0.93
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.24
1.00
1.09
0.90
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP B
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.03
1.33
1.20
1.07
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.50
1.00
1.40
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.40
0.80
1.50
1.10
1.30
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.4%
@ 1.36-10.8%
Under 1.5
42.6%
@ 2.91+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
888Sport
2.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.1%
@ 2.14-14.4%
Under 2.5
70.9%
@ 1.65+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
888Sport
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.2%
@ 3.86-11.8%
Under 3.5
87.8%
@ 1.22+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.06
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
888Sport
3.90
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.9%
@ 1.84-12.1%
No
62.1%
@ 1.84+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.85
No
1xBet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Betfair
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.6%@ 7.76+10.9%
0-1
14.9%@ 7.36+8.9%
1-1
14.6%@ 5.74+6.9%
1-0
11.1%@ 6.74+4.6%
0-2
8.6%@ 12.33+5.1%
1-2
7.1%@ 9.74+2.5%
2-1
5.4%@ 8.94+0.5%
2-0 ✓
5.1%@ 10.73+1.0%
Penafiel goals ↓
Sporting CP B goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
15%
8.6%
3.1%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
5.1%
5.4%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
3
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = Sporting CP B goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Penafiel is 0.03 points worse than Sporting CP B in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Penafiel is 0.12 goals worse than Sporting CP B in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Penafiel is 0.15 goals worse than Sporting CP B in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Penafiel is 5.8 percentage points worse than Sporting CP B in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 5.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting CP B
For 3.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
9.9
13.7
4.7
4.4
4.9
22.9
24.6
21.2
vs Stronger (13)
9.2
9.0
10.0
4.8
5.5
4.1
23.9
28.4
12.5
vs Similar (36)
13.2
11.3
14.4
4.8
4.1
5.5
22.3
19.8
23.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
79%
62%
100%
58%
46%
69%
61%
67%
56%
% under line
21%
38%
0%
42%
54%
31%
39%
33%
44%
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
8.3
9.0
7.8
4.6
4.8
4.4
25.0
25.5
24.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.0
-
9.0
5.2
5.5
4.8
20.0
-
20.0
vs Weaker (24)
8.2
9.0
7.6
4.3
4.4
4.2
25.6
25.5
25.6
% over line
40%
75%
17%
53%
56%
50%
80%
100%
67%
% under line
60%
25%
83%
47%
44%
50%
20%
0%
33%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
AVS
25.7
Tondela
25.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
União de Leiria
23.1
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.9%
@ 2.03-4.8%
Under 9.5
59.1%
@ 1.71+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.8%
Under 3.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.3%
Under 21.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Penafiel or Draw✓ Hit
60.5%
Avg Implied 67.1% · @ 1.38
Edge
-6.6%
26%
34%
39%
covers Penafiel + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
888Sport
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Penafiel or Sporting CP B✓ Hit
65.7%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.31
Edge
-5.1%
26%
34%
39%
covers Penafiel + Sporting CP B
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Draw or Sporting CP B✗ Miss
73.8%
Avg Implied 62.2% · @ 1.49
Edge
+11.6%
26%
34%
39%
covers Draw + Sporting CP B
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Penafiel over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.8%
@ 1.32-14.4%
Under
44.2%
@ 3.12+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.28
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
BetVictor
3.13
888Sport
3.10
Penafiel over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
19.7%
@ 2.55-16.6%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.46+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Penafiel over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 6.13-10.2%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.10+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
6.50
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Penafiel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 15.81-5.1%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Sporting CP B over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.5%
@ 1.37-2.4%
Under
34.5%
@ 2.90+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Sporting CP B over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.8%
@ 2.78-4.5%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.39+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
Betano
2.80
Under
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Sporting CP B over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 6.81-4.4%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Sporting CP B over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.75-3.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Penafiel, so a minus line means Penafiel give that many goals of a start and Sporting CP B receive them. At -1, Penafiel must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Penafiel win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Penafiel)Actual: Draw
Penafiel -2
2.1%
@ 10.72-6.1%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 6.45-7.0%
Sporting CP B +2
91.2%
@ 1.13+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Penafiel)Actual: Penafiel
Penafiel -1
8.8%
@ 4.96-9.0%
Draw -1
17.4%
@ 3.90-5.3%
Sporting CP B +1
73.8%
@ 1.49+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.85
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Handicap +1 (Penafiel)Actual: Penafiel
Penafiel +1
60.5%
@ 1.38-3.1%
Draw +1
23.1%
@ 4.18+2.1%
Sporting CP B -1
16.4%
@ 5.71+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.60
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Unibet
4.60
Handicap +2 (Penafiel)Actual: Penafiel
Penafiel +2
83.6%
@ 1.10+1.3%
Draw +2
11.4%
@ 8.05+0.1%
Sporting CP B -2
5.0%
@ 14.00-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.60
Away
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.25
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.48
0.55
0.45
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP B
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.67
0.53
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.45
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.9%
@ 1.44+1.5%
Under 0.5
34.1%
@ 2.60-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.1%
@ 3.08-2.1%
Under 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.33+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.6%
@ 8.10-2.9%
Under 2.5
91.4%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
Marathonbet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
William Hil
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.0%
@ 2.15-0.1%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.63+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 7.08-3.2%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.07+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 20.83-2.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Sporting CP B over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.4%
@ 2.29-0.2%
Under
59.6%
@ 1.56+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Sporting CP B over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 7.80-2.2%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.05+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Sporting CP B over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 29.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.80
0.40
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.76
0.45
0.64
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP B
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.35
0.80
0.60
0.70
0.10
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.7%
@ 1.28+0.3%
Under 0.5
27.3%
@ 3.38-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
Marathonbet
3.35
1xBet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.7%
@ 2.32-2.2%
Under 1.5
62.3%
@ 1.55+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 5.17-3.7%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.13+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.5%
@ 1.82-1.3%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.88+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 5.16-3.6%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.13+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.20
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 13.25-4.6%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Sporting CP B over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.1%
@ 1.92-3.1%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.79+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Sporting CP B over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 5.71-2.5%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.11+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
6.05
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Sporting CP B over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 15.12-3.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.7%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
William Hil
1.06
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+13.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.8%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.6%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.5%
1.24
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
+6.6%
-
Home under 1.5 goals
80.3%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
+16.6%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.8%
1.49
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
+11.6%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
73.8%
1.49
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
+14.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.7%
1.28
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.33
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.2%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.9%
1.43
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
+6.5%
-
Under 2.5
70.9%
1.65
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
888Sport
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
+14.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Sporting CP B · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paulo Cardoso33%
Lucas Anjos25%
Salvador Blopa20%
Rafael Nel17%
Bruno Ramos14%
Flavio Goncalves14%
Samuel Justo10%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Rômulo0%
Diego Callai0%
João Muniz0%
Manuel Mendonça0%
Mauro Couto0%
Zaid Bafdili0%
Rayan Lucas0%
David Moreira0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
José Silva0%
Rodrigo Dias0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Daniel Costa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Salvador Blopa40%
Kauã Oliveira33%
Bruno Ramos29%
Flavio Goncalves29%
Mateo Tanlongo25%
Rafael Nel17%
João Muniz14%
Gabriel Silva14%
Diego Callai12%
Rodrigo Dias11%
Paulo Cardoso11%
Samuel Justo10%
Manuel Mendonça10%
Mauro Couto10%
David Moreira10%
Rômulo0%
Zaid Bafdili0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Lucas Anjos0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
José Silva0%
Daniel Costa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zaid Bafdili40%
José Silva33%
Mauro Couto20%
Rafael Nel17%
Flavio Goncalves14%
Rodrigo Dias11%
Paulo Cardoso11%
Manuel Mendonça10%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Rômulo0%
Diego Callai0%
Samuel Justo0%
João Muniz0%
Bruno Ramos0%
Rayan Lucas0%
David Moreira0%
Lucas Anjos0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
Salvador Blopa0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Daniel Costa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Nel50%
Samuel Justo20%
Lucas Anjos12%
Manuel Mendonça10%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Rômulo0%
Diego Callai0%
João Muniz0%
Mauro Couto0%
Zaid Bafdili0%
Bruno Ramos0%
Rayan Lucas0%
David Moreira0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
José Silva0%
Salvador Blopa0%
Flavio Goncalves0%
Rodrigo Dias0%
Paulo Cardoso0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Daniel Costa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Penafiel's squad is €12m less valuable than Sporting CP B's (€5m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Penafiel's attack is €3m less valuable than Sporting CP B's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Penafiel's midfield is €5m less valuable than Sporting CP B's (€0m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Penafiel's defence is €4m less valuable than Sporting CP B's (€3m vs €7m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves