Bala Town is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win at 67%. This is largely due to the weakness of Penrhyncoch's home form, particularly against teams of similar strength to Bala Town, where they concede an average of 1.71 goals.
The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 to Bala Town, with a probability of 11.2%.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Penrhyncoch have averaged 2.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded at home, while Bala Town have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is an away win, with the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals at 82.4%. The home win percentage is 12%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 68%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with a 82.4% probability.
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 2.03 | 2.00 | 1.46 | 0.88 | 2.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.38 | 2.04 | 1.92 | 1.58 | 0.93 | 2.43 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.40 | 0.94 | 1.38 | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Bala Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 8.4% | 11% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 1.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 0.35 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.23 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 1.41 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.81 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 95.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 93.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 90.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 89.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 87.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 87.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Bala Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |