Penrhyncoch’s recent run of defeats has left them vulnerable at home, while Bangor City 1876 FC, fresh from a win, looks set to exploit their superior attack. The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Bangor, 29% for Penrhyncoch and 21% for a draw. The expected total is 4.0 goals, and the most likely total is 6 + goals, a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Bangor, with an 8.1% chance. Penrhyncoch average home scoring is 1.58 and conceding 2.5 against similar teams, whereas Bangor’s away attack averages 2.88 and they concede only 1.62. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (91.7%), Over 2.5 (76.6%) and BTTS Yes (74.7%). Each of these selections carries its own probability, separate from the match-result odds.
The upset came as Penrhyncoch edged Bangor City 1876 FC 3-2, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 50% probability. The prediction was wrong. The model’s selections were all correct: Over 1.5 goals hit, Over 2.5 goals hit, and BTTS Yes hit, each with probabilities of 91.7%, 76.6%, and 74.7% respectively. Penrhyncoch’s form has been a string of losses, coming off a 0-4 defeat to Guilsfield, while Bangor City, after a 1-2 loss to Mold Alexandra, had been on a four-match winning streak. The final score of 3-2 confirms the home side’s triumph.
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 2.27 | 1.62 | 2.38 | 0.94 | 2.18 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.21 | 2.31 | 1.58 | 2.50 | 0.94 | 2.18 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.10 | 1.43 | 1.93 | 1.20 | 2.27 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 2.44 | 1.11 | 2.10 | 0.70 | 2.88 | 1.62 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.58 | 1.92 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 1.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Bangor City 1876 FC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| 2 | 2.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.90 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.76 | 0.93 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.37 | 0.54 | 1.46 | 0.41 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.45 | 1.38 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.41 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 0.80 | 1.27 | 0.67 | 1.40 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.67 | 0.39 | 1.60 | 0.20 | 1.75 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.83 | 1.42 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 76.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/09/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 4-0 | |
| 26/08/24 | H | 4-2 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 2-3 | |
| 17/08/24 | H | 2-4 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/07/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/04/23 | A | 3-2 |
Bangor City 1876 FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/09/24 | H | 4-1 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/08/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 17/08/24 | H | 1-4 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 06/08/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 26/07/24 | A | 0-4 | |
| 23/04/24 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |