The model sees a high-scoring clash, with an expected 3.2 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three. Penrhyncoch, who have struggled recently with a 0-4 loss, are still favoured to win at home, with a 39% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 35% for Buckley Town. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% probability. Penrhyncoch average 0.83 goals at home and concede 2.0, while Buckley Town, on the road, score 1.0 and also concede 2.0 against similar opposition. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, is 83.5% likely to hit. The predicted result is a home win, yet the match could still swing to a draw or an away win. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, reflects the attacking numbers and the defensive frailties of both sides.
The pre-match favourite, Penrhyncoch, was tipped to win with a 39% probability, but the match ended 3-4 in favour of Buckley Town, leaving the model’s call incorrect. The upset came on the back of Penrhyncoch’s poor run, coming off a 0-4 defeat to Guilsfield, while Buckley Town also entered after a 0-2 loss to Caersws. The model’s single other selection, Over 1.5 goals, proved right, hitting the 83.5% probability. The final score of 3-4 confirmed Buckley Town’s away victory, overturning expectations and highlighting the unpredictability of the FAW Championship.
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 2.60 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.70 | 2.60 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.25 | 1.83 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.38 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Buckley Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 12% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.17 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.17 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 42% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/22 | A | 4-1 | |
| 22/10/22 | H | 2-5 | |
| 01/10/22 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/09/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 06/09/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/08/22 | A | 5-0 | |
| 26/08/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/08/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/08/22 | H | 0-3 | |
| 30/07/22 | H | 1-0 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/22 | H | 3-2 | |
| 22/10/22 | A | 4-1 | |
| 15/10/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 01/10/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/09/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 06/09/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 29/08/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/08/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/08/22 | A | 2-0 | |
| 13/08/22 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 83 | 90% | 2.8 | 101 | 24 | +77 | 4.2 | 100% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Holywell | 30 | 79 | 87% | 2.6 | 75 | 22 | +53 | 3.2 | 93% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Barry Town | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 78 | 25 | +53 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 30 | 66 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 23 | +47 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 62 | 63% | 2.1 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 72 | 33 | +39 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 58 | 37 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 52 | 53% | 1.7 | 66 | 41 | +25 | 3.6 | 80% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 51 | 53% | 1.7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 3.9 | 87% | 70% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 3.8 | 93% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 66 | 48 | +18 | 3.8 | 93% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.9 | 77% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Cefn Druids AFC | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 15 | Buckley Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 62 | 53 | +9 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 37 | 40% | 1.2 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 18 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 19 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 20 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 33 | 27% | 1.1 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 21 | Porthmadog | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 3.0 | 87% | 63% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.5 | 80% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Goytre United | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 3.7 | 93% | 67% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 3.2 | 80% | 53% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 3.5 | 93% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Trefelin | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 3.9 | 97% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 27 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 26 | 17% | 0.9 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 2.7 | 77% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 28 | Swansea University | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 29 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 24 | 23% | 0.8 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 3.3 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | - |
| 30 | Conwy Borough | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 3.4 | 93% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 32 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 15 | 7% | 0.5 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 3.1 | 90% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | - |