Penrhyncoch’s recent form has been shaky, coming off a 0-4 loss to Guilsfield, yet the model still favours a home win with a 42% probability, against a 22% chance of a draw and 36% for Buckley Town. The expected total of 4.0 goals, coupled with a 22% probability that the match will see 6 or more goals, signals a high-scoring affair. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 7.9% chance. Penrhyncoch averages 1.92 goals scored and 2.25 conceded at home against teams of similar strength, while Buckley Town, playing away, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 at 91.9%, Over 2.5 at 76.8%, and BTTS Yes at 75.9%. These picks reflect the offensive output expected from both sides. The final outcome of the match will be a draw, but the data suggests a lively contest with plenty of chances.
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Penrhyncoch, failed to materialise as the match ended 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction. The model had given the home side a 42% chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. The suggested picks also missed the mark: Over 1.5, Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes were all wrong, with probabilities of 91.9%, 76.8% and 75.9% respectively. Penrhyncoch, coming off a 0-4 defeat to Guilsfield, had a recent run of LDLLL, while Buckley Town, after a 0-2 loss to Caersws, also struggled, recording LWLDL. The model’s call was therefore incorrect.
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 2.03 | 1.92 | 2.15 | 1.00 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.38 | 2.07 | 1.92 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 1.94 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.20 | 1.47 | 2.29 | 1.29 | 2.08 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.78 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.83 | 1.67 | 3.29 | 1.43 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Buckley Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 0.35 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.55 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.35 | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.08 | 0.75 | 1.29 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.23 | 1.08 | 1.23 | 0.65 | 1.24 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.83 | 1.24 | 1.08 | 1.25 | 0.65 | 1.24 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.47 | 0.94 | 1.31 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.17 | 0.72 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.75 | 0.92 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/02/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 3-4 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/01/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/01/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 28/12/24 | A | 4-2 | |
| 14/12/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/11/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 09/11/24 | H | 5-0 | |
| 02/11/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/10/24 | H | 1-3 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/01/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 17/01/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/01/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/12/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 21/12/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 30/11/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/11/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 02/11/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 25/10/24 | A | 3-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |