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Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town Result & Analysis

Date: 28/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-2
Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch
Vs
52%
22%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model’s edge is most pronounced on the away under 3.5 goals pick, where it offers a 92.5% chance and a 13% advantage over the market. Penrhyncoch’s recent form has been uneven, with a 0-2 loss to Brickfield Rangers after three straight defeats, yet their home scoring average of 1.92 goals and conceding 1.67 against similar opposition keeps the home win probability at 52%. Denbigh Town, struggling away with a 2-3 defeat to Porthmadog, averages 1.82 goals scored and 2.09 conceded, giving them a 27% chance of victory. The model favours a home win, with a 52% probability, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 27%. The expected total goals is 3.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Penrhyncoch, with an 8.7% chance. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%), Under 7.5 (96.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (91.7%), Under 6.5 (91.1%) and Over 1.5 (89.9%) with a 5% edge. The model’s predictions highlight a likely home victory with a high-scoring 2-1 outcome.

Results analysis

The match ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, Home win, on the wrong side of the outcome. The model had given the home side a 52% chance of triumph, yet the game finished level. The suggested picks all hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4%, Under 7.5 at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.5%, Under 6.5 at 91.1%, Over 1.5 at 89.9%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 89.1%. Both Penrhyncoch and Denbigh Town were coming off draws, each with a recent five-match run of DLLLW, and the final 2-2 result extended that pattern.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penrhyncoch win✗ Miss
51.5%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.33
Edge
+24.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Draw✓ Hit
21.9%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.03
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Bet365
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Denbigh Town win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.80
Edge
-23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.85
Dafabet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W32W01L01L21W41W30W13L05L02LH·HOL14/03A·FLI21/03H·HOL28/03A·DEN03/04A·CAE06/04H·GRE11/04H·RHY18/04H·POR01/08A·NEW08/08A·BRI22/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.932.001.430.942.38
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (25)1.442.001.921.671.002.31
vs Weaker (4)1.501.752.500.000.503.50
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-641W32W03L11D10W06L42W12L12L23LA·BUC13/03H·AIR20/03A·RHY27/03H·HOL31/03H·PEN03/04A·CAE18/04A·BUC01/08H·BAN08/08A·RUT14/08H·POR21/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.732.131.851.541.652.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.891.952.001.751.822.09
vs Weaker (11)1.452.451.601.201.333.50
Clean sheet %7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Penrhyncoch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
@ 1.10+7.0%
Under 1.5
10.1%
@ 5.33-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Under
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.9%
@ 1.38+6.7%
Under 2.5
27.1%
@ 2.70-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Under
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
Pinnacle
2.74
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.3%
@ 2.00+6.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
@ 1.70-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.4%
@ 1.40+5.6%
No
28.6%
@ 2.67-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
No
1xBet
2.74
Superbet
2.67
Marathonbet
2.67
William Hil
2.62

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%@ 11.25+5.0%
1-1
8.7%@ 8.25+3.6%
2-2 ✓
6.9%@ 10.75+2.9%
3-1
6.5%@ 20.50+4.4%
1-2
6.2%@ 8.12+1.0%
2-0
5.6%@ 20.00+3.4%
3-2
5.1%@ 21.25+3.1%
1-0
4.2%@ 16.00+1.6%
Penrhyncoch goals ↓
Denbigh Town goals →
01234
03.1%2.8%2.8%1.5%0.6%
14.2%8.7%6.2%3.3%1.3%
25.6%8.7%6.9%3.6%1.4%
34.1%6.5%5.1%2.7%1.0%
42.3%3.6%2.8%1.5%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penrhyncoch goals (down), columns = Denbigh Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Swansea University
2.60
Pontypridd Town
2.60
Newtown AFC
2.60
Brickfield Rangers
2.50
Bala Town
2.40
Aberystwyth Town
2.40
Mold Alexandra
2.17
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Porthmadog
1.83
Treowen Stars
1.80
Carmarthen Town
1.67
Baglan Dragons
1.67
Ynyshir Albions
1.60
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.40
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.33
Llanuwchllyn
1.20
Newport City
1.20
Afan Lido
1.17
Caerau (Ely)
1.17
Cardiff Draconians
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.80
Ruthin Town
0.67
Buckley Town
0.67
Denbigh Town
0.67
Pontardawe Town
0.60
llanelli AFC
0.33
Penrhyncoch
0.20
Llantwit Major
0.00
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Penrhyncoch is 0.47 points worse than Denbigh Town in terms of average points per game (0.20 vs 0.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Swansea University
3.60
Pontypridd Town
3.20
Aberystwyth Town
3.20
Brickfield Rangers
2.83
Newtown AFC
2.80
Treowen Stars
2.60
Carmarthen Town
2.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.33
Caerau (Ely)
2.17
Bala Town
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Guilsfield
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Afan Lido
1.83
Porthmadog
1.83
Denbigh Town
1.83
Rhyl
1.80
Newport City
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.40
Cardiff Draconians
1.25
Buckley Town
1.17
llanelli AFC
1.00
Llanuwchllyn
1.00
Pontardawe Town
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Ynyshir Albions
0.80
Penrhyncoch
0.60
Caerphilly Athletic
0.60
Llantwit Major
0.25
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Penrhyncoch is 1.23 goals worse than Denbigh Town in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Newtown AFC
0.20
Ynyshir Albions
0.60
Brickfield Rangers
0.67
Bala Town
0.80
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Swansea University
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Newport City
1.00
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.33
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Caersws
1.40
Porthmadog
1.50
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.60
Cardiff Draconians
1.75
Treowen Stars
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.80
Pontardawe Town
1.80
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.83
Buckley Town
1.83
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Afan Lido
2.17
Ruthin Town
2.17
Carmarthen Town
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.33
Gresford Athletic
2.80
Caerau (Ely)
2.83
llanelli AFC
3.00
Llanuwchllyn
3.00
Penrhyncoch
3.20
Llantwit Major
3.50
Penrhyncoch is 0.87 goals worse than Denbigh Town in terms of goals conceded per game (3.20 vs 2.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Penrhyncoch or Draw✓ Hit
73.5%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.85
Edge
+23.8%
52%
22%
27%
covers Penrhyncoch + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Penrhyncoch or Denbigh Town✗ Miss
78.1%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.18
Edge
+0.5%
52%
22%
27%
covers Penrhyncoch + Denbigh Town
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Draw or Denbigh Town✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
-24.3%
52%
22%
27%
covers Draw + Denbigh Town
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Penrhyncoch over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.1%
@ 1.22+14.7%
Under
10.9%
@ 3.54-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.58
Superbet
3.50
Penrhyncoch over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
64.9%
@ 2.19+22.7%
Under
35.1%
@ 1.60-22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Penrhyncoch over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
38.1%
@ 4.45+17.6%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.15-17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.30
Under
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Penrhyncoch over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.2%
@ 1.06-5.9%
Under
20.8%
@ 6.10+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Under
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
5.40
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.6%
@ 1.53-13.7%
Under
53.4%
@ 2.32+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.27
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 2.59-14.5%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.42+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.64
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.61
Pinnacle
2.48
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Denbigh Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 4.42-13.0%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.14+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Under
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Penrhyncoch, so a minus line means Penrhyncoch give that many goals of a start and Denbigh Town receive them. At -1, Penrhyncoch must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Penrhyncoch win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Penrhyncoch)Actual: Denbigh Town
Penrhyncoch -2
16.2%
Draw -2
15.6%
Denbigh Town +2
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Penrhyncoch)Actual: Denbigh Town
Penrhyncoch -1
31.7%
Draw -1
19.8%
Denbigh Town +1
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Penrhyncoch)Actual: Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch +1
73.5%
@ 1.86+26.0%
Draw +1
13.8%
@ 3.94-8.6%
Denbigh Town -1
12.7%
@ 2.94-17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.89
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
Away
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
Handicap +2 (Penrhyncoch)Actual: Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch +2
87.3%
@ 1.32+19.9%
Draw +2
7.9%
@ 5.40-8.6%
Denbigh Town -2
4.8%
@ 5.55-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw
Marathonbet
5.40
Away
Marathonbet
5.55

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W01L01L11D11D10W11D03L01LH·HOL14/03A·FLI21/03H·HOL28/03A·DEN03/04A·CAE06/04H·GRE11/04H·RHY18/04H·POR01/08A·NEW08/08A·BRI22/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.030.791.000.381.06
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.601.080.751.170.461.00
vs Weaker (4)0.501.001.000.000.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W02L10W10W03L31W00D00D01LA·BUC13/03H·AIR20/03A·RHY27/03H·HOL31/03H·PEN03/04A·CAE18/04A·BUC01/08H·BAN08/08A·RUT14/08H·POR21/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.100.770.540.711.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.840.890.750.750.911.00
vs Weaker (11)0.551.450.800.200.332.50
Clean sheet %37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Penrhyncoch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.2%
@ 1.19-2.1%
Under 0.5
24.8%
@ 4.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.00
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.00-6.1%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.69+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Under
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.6%
@ 4.16-6.4%
Under 2.5
84.4%
@ 1.18+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
3.85
Under
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penrhyncoch over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.1%
@ 1.95+4.7%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.76-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Under
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Penrhyncoch over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 5.25-0.6%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.11+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Under
1xBet
1.11
Penrhyncoch over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 11.00-4.8%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.2%
@ 1.56-7.7%
Under
48.8%
@ 2.24+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 3.60-9.8%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.23+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 8.45-8.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.04+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D00D00D10W30W20W02L02L01LH·HOL14/03A·FLI21/03H·HOL28/03A·DEN03/04A·CAE06/04H·GRE11/04H·RHY18/04H·POR01/08A·NEW08/08A·BRI22/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.901.210.430.561.31
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.840.921.170.500.541.31
vs Weaker (4)1.000.751.500.000.501.50
Clean sheet %47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L01L01L00D03L11D12L12L22DA·BUC13/03H·AIR20/03A·RHY27/03H·HOL31/03H·PEN03/04A·CAE18/04A·BUC01/08H·BAN08/08A·RUT14/08H·POR21/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.031.081.000.941.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.051.051.251.000.911.09
vs Weaker (11)0.911.000.801.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Penrhyncoch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.2%
@ 1.10+0.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
@ 5.40-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Under
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.9%
@ 1.60-4.4%
Under 1.5
47.1%
@ 2.16+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Under
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
27.4%
@ 2.83-4.9%
Under 2.5
72.6%
@ 1.35+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Under
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penrhyncoch over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.8%
@ 1.68+7.8%
Under
37.2%
@ 2.04-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Under
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Penrhyncoch over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
28.7%
@ 4.10+6.4%
Under
71.3%
@ 1.18-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.18
Penrhyncoch over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 10.00+2.2%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.02-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.9%
@ 1.39-11.7%
Under
46.1%
@ 2.65+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.62
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.6%
@ 2.72-14.8%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.36+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.74
Superbet
2.70
Under
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 6.50-8.5%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.08+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Under
1xBet
1.08

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Away under 2.5 HT goals97.1%1.04
1xBet
1.04
----+8.0%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals96.4%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+4.8%✓ Hit
Under 7.596.1%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals94.2%1.08
1xBet
1.08
----+8.5%✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals92.5%1.14
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
---+13.0%✓ Hit
Under 6.591.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.589.9%1.10
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.09
---+7.0%✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals89.1%1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
---+14.7%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals88.6%1.02
1xBet
1.02
-----2.2%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap87.3%1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
----+19.9%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals84.4%1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-+6.4%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals84.4%1.23
1xBet
1.23
----+9.8%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals83.2%1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
---+0.2%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals83.1%1.11
1xBet
1.11
----+0.6%✓ Hit
Under 5.581.8%1.10
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.09
----1.5%✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals81.7%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals81.4%1.36
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
---+14.8%✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals79.2%1.06
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
----5.9%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals79.1%1.42
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
-+14.5%✓ Hit
Home or Away78.1%1.18
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
+0.5%✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals75.2%1.19
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
--2.1%✓ Hit
Over 2.572.9%1.38
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
+6.7%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals72.6%1.35
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
--+4.9%✗ Miss
BTTS Yes71.4%1.40
Superbet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
-+5.6%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals71.3%1.18
1xBet
1.18
-----6.4%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (12)
€1m
NC (4)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (4)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (6)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
PEN wins
1
Draws
2
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
03/04/26ADenbigh Town Vs PEN1-0
25/08/25HPEN Vs Denbigh Town1-1
25/01/25ADenbigh Town Vs PEN3-0
26/08/24HPEN Vs Denbigh Town4-2

PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26ABrickfield Rangers Vs PEN2-0
08/08/26ANewtown AFC Vs PEN5-0
01/08/26HPEN Vs Porthmadog1-3
18/04/26HPEN Vs Rhyl3-0
11/04/26HPEN Vs Gresford Athletic4-1
06/04/26ACaersws Vs PEN1-2
03/04/26ADenbigh Town Vs PEN1-0
28/03/26HPEN Vs Holywell0-1
21/03/26AFlint Mountain Vs PEN2-3
14/03/26HPEN Vs Holyhead Hotspur1-0

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26HDT Vs Porthmadog2-3
14/08/26ARuthin Town Vs DT2-1
08/08/26HDT Vs Bangor City 1876 FC1-2
01/08/26ABuckley Town Vs DT2-4
18/04/26ACaersws Vs DT6-0
03/04/26HDT Vs Penrhyncoch1-0
31/03/26HDT Vs Holyhead Hotspur1-1
27/03/26ARhyl Vs DT3-0
20/03/26HDT Vs Airbus UK3-2
13/03/26ABuckley Town Vs DT1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.20
HomeWLWWL1.48
AwayWLWLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%44%24%
AVG goals3.203.123.28
Over 1.5 %80%68%92%
Over 2.5 %60%56%64%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored1.421.841.00
Conceded1.781.282.28
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet20%32%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.38
HomeWDWLL1.68
AwayWLLWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%52%28%
AVG goals3.703.443.96
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %76%72%80%
Over 3.5 %52%44%60%
Scored1.901.961.84
Conceded1.801.482.12
BTTS72%72%72%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers615
83%
2.5
174+13
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2Swansea UniversitySwansea University513
80%
2.6
185+13
4.6
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.0
-
3Newtown AFCNewtown AFC513
80%
2.6
141+13
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.2
-
4Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town513
80%
2.6
1610+6
5.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
5Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra613
67%
2.2
126+6
3.0
67%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town512
80%
2.4
165+11
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
7Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC612
67%
2.0
148+6
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
8Bala TownBala Town512
80%
2.4
104+6
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
9PorthmadogPorthmadog611
50%
1.8
119+2
3.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
10CaerswsCaersws510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
11Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town610
50%
1.7
1514+1
4.8
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.52.3
-
12Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons610
50%
1.7
55+0
1.7
33%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
13Treowen StarsTreowen Stars59
60%
1.8
139+4
4.4
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.8
-
14GuilsfieldGuilsfield69
33%
1.5
129+3
3.5
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
15Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds68
33%
1.3
1211+1
3.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
16Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions58
40%
1.6
43+1
1.4
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.6
-
17RhylRhyl57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.6
-
18Afan LidoAfan Lido67
33%
1.2
1113-2
4.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.2
-
19Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)67
33%
1.2
1317-4
5.0
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.8
-
20Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic57
40%
1.4
37-4
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
21Newport CityNewport City56
40%
1.2
95+4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
22LlanuwchllynLlanuwchllyn56
40%
1.2
515-10
4.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
23Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur54
20%
0.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
24Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
25Denbigh TownDenbigh Town64
17%
0.7
1114-3
4.2
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
26Buckley TownBuckley Town64
17%
0.7
711-4
3.0
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
27Ruthin TownRuthin Town64
17%
0.7
613-7
3.2
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
28Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town53
20%
0.6
59-4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
29llanelli AFCllanelli AFC62
0%
0.3
618-12
4.0
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
30PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch51
0%
0.2
316-13
3.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
31Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major40
0%
0.0
114-13
3.8
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.23.5
-
32Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic50
0%
0.0
014-14
2.8
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.8
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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