The model favours an away win, with a 46% chance for the Club d’Escaldes, a 28% chance for a draw and a 27% chance for Penya Encarnada. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, but the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% probability. Penya Encarnada, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.57 goals scored and concedes 2.14. In contrast, the visiting Club d’Escaldes, facing a weaker side, scores 2.4 and concedes just 0.4 on the road. The recent form narrative is clear: Penya Encarnada have lost two of their last five, most recently 0-2, while the Club d’Escaldes come off a win and last beat Penya Encarnada 2-0. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.1%), Away +2 handicap (88.8%) and Under 4.5 (86.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penya Encarnada win
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Penya Encarnada
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.63
1.13
1.80
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
2.07
0.57
2.14
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.29
1.62
1.50
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.10
1.81
0.88
1.36
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.81
1.14
1.71
0.78
1.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.36
0.29
2.33
0.22
2.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
9.2%
0-2
8.1%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.3%
Penya Encarnada goals ↓
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
9.2%
8.1%
4.2%
1.6%
1
6.5%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.4%
6.9%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.7%
2.6%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penya Encarnada goals (down), columns = Atlètic Club d'Escaldes goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Penya Encarnada is 0.42 points worse than Atlètic Club d'Escaldes in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Penya Encarnada is 0.50 goals worse than Atlètic Club d'Escaldes in terms of goals scored per game (0.79 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Penya Encarnada is 0.62 goals worse than Atlètic Club d'Escaldes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Penya Encarnada or Draw
54.5%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
46%
covers Penya Encarnada + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada or Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
72.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
46%
covers Penya Encarnada + Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
73.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
46%
covers Draw + Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Penya Encarnada, so a minus line means Penya Encarnada give that many goals of a start and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes receive them. At -1, Penya Encarnada must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Penya Encarnada win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada -2
3.5%
Draw -2
7.7%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes +2
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada -1
11.2%
Draw -1
15.7%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes +1
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada +1
54.5%
Draw +1
21.7%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes -1
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada +2
76.2%
Draw +2
14.1%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes -2
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penya Encarnada
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.80
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.29
0.38
0.50
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.12
0.31
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.75
0.71
0.71
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.00
1.44
0.00
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penya Encarnada
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.87
1.20
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
1.27
0.43
1.43
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.69
0.56
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
1.06
0.43
1.00
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.29
0.89
0.22
1.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
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Inter Club d'Escaldes
FC Santa Coloma
Esperança d'Andorra
Sporting Escaldes
Ranger's
Ordino
Carroi
Casa de Portugal