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Penya Encarnada vs Esperança d'Andorra Result & Analysis

Date: 05/05/2024
Time: 11:30
Final 3-2
Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
Vs
63%
19%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Esperança d
Esperança d'Andorra
Andorra: 1a Divisió
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penya Encarnada win✓ Hit
63.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L41W00D10W21W22D12L11D24L41WH·INT04/02H·CAR11/02H·UE 18/02A·PAS25/02H·ORD03/03A·PAS10/03H·ATL07/04A·UE 13/04H·FC 21/04A·ATL28/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.171.651.181.461.15
vs Stronger (15)1.001.731.101.700.801.80
vs Similar (12)2.250.582.500.502.000.67
vs Weaker (3)1.670.672.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L16L00D36L13L02L06L50W04L20WA·UE 04/02A·FC 10/02H·PAS18/02A·ATL24/02H·ATL03/03A·UE 10/03H·FC 07/04A·ATL14/04A·INT21/04H·CAR27/04
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
3.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.670.802.271.203.07
vs Stronger (18)1.063.220.782.671.333.78
vs Similar (9)1.001.891.002.001.001.75
vs Weaker (3)0.671.670.000.001.002.50
Clean sheet %20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%2%06%115%220%320%416%521%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.5%
Under 1.5
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.2%
Under 2.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.7%
Under 3.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.2%
No
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%
3-1
7.6%
1-1
7.3%
2-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.4%
3-2 ✓
5.3%
4-1
4.9%
Penya Encarnada goals ↓
Esperança d'Andorra goals →
01234
02.5%1.9%1.8%0.8%0.3%
14.1%7.3%4.6%2.1%0.7%
26.2%8.7%6.0%2.8%1.0%
35.4%7.6%5.3%2.4%0.8%
43.6%4.9%3.4%1.6%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penya Encarnada goals (down), columns = Esperança d'Andorra goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
UE Santa Coloma
2.44
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.33
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
2.22
FC Santa Coloma
2.19
Penya Encarnada
1.63
Ranger's
1.50
Ordino
1.33
Pas de la Casa
0.67
Carroi
0.55
Esperança d'Andorra
0.52
Atlètic Amèrica
0.41
Penya Encarnada is 1.11 points better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 0.52).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
2.63
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.44
FC Santa Coloma
2.37
UE Santa Coloma
2.11
Penya Encarnada
1.67
Ordino
1.22
Esperança d'Andorra
1.00
Pas de la Casa
0.89
Atlètic Amèrica
0.81
Carroi
0.69
Ranger's
0.50
Penya Encarnada is 0.67 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
UE Santa Coloma
0.44
Ranger's
0.50
Inter Club d'Escaldes
0.59
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
0.78
FC Santa Coloma
0.85
Ordino
1.07
Penya Encarnada
1.26
Pas de la Casa
1.70
Carroi
2.69
Esperança d'Andorra
3.00
Atlètic Amèrica
3.30
Penya Encarnada is 1.74 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W00D00D00D10W01L00D10W10WH·INT04/02H·CAR11/02H·UE 18/02A·PAS25/02H·ORD03/03A·PAS10/03H·ATL07/04A·UE 13/04H·FC 21/04A·ATL28/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.370.530.410.620.31
vs Stronger (15)0.330.600.300.600.400.60
vs Similar (12)0.830.170.830.170.830.17
vs Weaker (3)0.670.001.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L03L00D20W01L01L04L20W02L10WA·UE 04/02A·FC 10/02H·PAS18/02A·ATL24/02H·ATL03/03A·UE 10/03H·FC 07/04A·ATL14/04A·INT21/04H·CAR27/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.421.330.081.000.751.67
vs Stronger (15)0.331.670.001.570.621.75
vs Similar (7)0.430.710.250.250.671.33
vs Weaker (2)1.001.000.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L31W00D10W21W12L11D11D14L31WH·INT04/02H·CAR11/02H·UE 18/02A·PAS25/02H·ORD03/03A·PAS10/03H·ATL07/04A·UE 13/04H·FC 21/04A·ATL28/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.120.760.850.85
vs Stronger (15)0.671.130.801.100.401.20
vs Similar (12)1.420.421.670.331.170.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L13L00D16L12L01L02L30W02L10WA·UE 04/02A·FC 10/02H·PAS18/02A·ATL24/02H·ATL03/03A·UE 10/03H·FC 07/04A·ATL14/04A·INT21/04H·CAR27/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.461.670.331.580.581.75
vs Stronger (15)0.532.070.431.710.622.38
vs Similar (7)0.431.140.251.750.670.33
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.2%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
PDL (5)
€1m
Penya Encarnada's squad is €1m more valuable than Esperança d'Andorra's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
PDL (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
PDL (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
PDL (3)
€0m
Penya Encarnada's defence is €1m more valuable than Esperança d'Andorra's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
PE wins
0
Draws
0
ED wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Penya Encarnada vs Esperança d'Andorra · H/A from PE
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/23AEsperança d'Andorra Vs PE0-3
17/09/23HPE Vs Esperança d'Andorra1-0

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24AAtlètic Amèrica Vs PE1-4
21/04/24HPE Vs FC Santa Coloma2-4
13/04/24AUE Santa Coloma Vs PE1-1
07/04/24HPE Vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes1-2
10/03/24APas de la Casa Vs PE2-2
03/03/24HPE Vs Ordino2-1
25/02/24APas de la Casa Vs PE0-1
18/02/24HPE Vs UE Santa Coloma0-0
11/02/24HPE Vs Carroi4-1
04/02/24HPE Vs Inter Club d'Escaldes0-2

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/24HED Vs Carroi2-0
21/04/24AInter Club d'Escaldes Vs ED4-0
14/04/24AAtlètic Amèrica Vs ED0-5
07/04/24HED Vs FC Santa Coloma0-6
10/03/24AUE Santa Coloma Vs ED2-0
03/03/24HED Vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes1-3
24/02/24AAtlètic Amèrica Vs ED6-3
18/02/24HED Vs Pas de la Casa0-0
10/02/24AFC Santa Coloma Vs ED6-1
04/02/24AUE Santa Coloma Vs ED6-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
Andorra: 1a Divisió
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLW1.26
HomeWDWLL1.31
AwayLWDDW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%35%33%
AVG goals2.742.582.92
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.261.311.21
Conceded1.481.271.71
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Esperança d
Esperança d'Andorra
Andorra: 1a Divisió
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.35
HomeLDLLW1.46
AwayLLLWL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%46%36%
AVG goals3.653.333.96
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %69%67%72%
Over 3.5 %51%42%60%
Scored1.671.421.92
Conceded1.981.922.04
BTTS35%33%36%
Clean Sheet31%29%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1UE Santa ColomaUE Santa Coloma2766
74%
2.4
5712+45
2.6
78%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.10.4
-
2Inter Club dInter Club d'Escaldes2763
74%
2.3
6616+50
3.0
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.40.6
-
3Atlètic Club dAtlètic Club d'Escaldes2760
70%
2.2
7121+50
3.4
81%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.60.8
-
4FC Santa ColomaFC Santa Coloma2759
70%
2.2
6423+41
3.2
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.40.9
-
5Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada2744
48%
1.6
4534+11
2.9
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.71.3
-
6OrdinoOrdino2736
37%
1.3
3329+4
2.3
74%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Pas de la CasaPas de la Casa2718
11%
0.7
2446-22
2.6
74%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.91.7
-
8CarroiCarroi2916
14%
0.6
2078-58
3.4
86%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.72.7
-
9Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra2714
15%
0.5
2781-54
4.0
93%
70%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.03.0
-
10Atlètic AmèricaAtlètic Amèrica2711
11%
0.4
2289-67
4.1
85%
74%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.3
-
11RangerRanger's23
50%
1.5
11+0
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.50.5
-
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →

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