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Penya Encarnada vs Esperança d'Andorra Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
Vs
45%
27%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Esperança d
Esperança d'Andorra
Andorra: 1a Divisió
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours a Penya Encarnada win, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 27% draw probability and a 28% chance for Esperança d'Andorra. The expected total goals hover near three, with an average of 2.9, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Penya Encarnada, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Esperança d'Andorra, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 5.5 (92.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.7%), Home +2 handicap (87.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.8%) and Under 4.5 (83.4%). Recent form shows Penya Encarnada struggling after two straight defeats, while Esperança d'Andorra is on a two-game winning streak.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penya Encarnada win
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra win
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D12L01L10W02L10W12L02LH·UE 07/02H·INT14/02H·CAR22/02A·INT01/03H·FC 21/03A·ESP13/04H·UE 18/04A·ORD26/04H·RAN10/05A·ATL17/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.631.131.800.871.47
vs Stronger (15)0.532.070.572.140.502.00
vs Similar (14)1.431.291.621.501.171.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L41W20W01L04L03L22D31W20WH·RAN22/02A·ATL28/02H·CAR08/03A·INT22/03H·PEN13/04A·FC 19/04H·UE 10/05A·ORD16/05A·SPO23/05H·SPO27/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.900.671.600.932.20
vs Stronger (17)0.412.650.252.380.562.89
vs Similar (10)1.001.101.000.831.001.50
vs Weaker (3)2.330.332.000.002.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.7%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
Penya Encarnada goals ↓
Esperança d'Andorra goals →
01234
06.7%5.9%4.4%1.8%0.6%
18.0%13%7.2%3.0%0.9%
27.4%9.3%5.8%2.4%0.8%
34.0%5.1%3.2%1.3%0.4%
41.6%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penya Encarnada goals (down), columns = Esperança d'Andorra goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Penya Encarnada is 0.35 points better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.65).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Penya Encarnada is 0.02 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals scored per game (0.79 vs 0.77).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Penya Encarnada is 0.14 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Penya Encarnada or Draw
71.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Penya Encarnada + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada or Esperança d'Andorra
73.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Penya Encarnada + Esperança d'Andorra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Esperança d'Andorra
54.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Esperança d'Andorra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5
Over
80.4%
Under
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Penya Encarnada, so a minus line means Penya Encarnada give that many goals of a start and Esperança d'Andorra receive them. At -1, Penya Encarnada must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Penya Encarnada win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada -2
10.0%
Draw -2
14.0%
Esperança d'Andorra +2
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada -1
24.0%
Draw -1
21.1%
Esperança d'Andorra +1
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada +1
71.7%
Draw +1
15.9%
Esperança d'Andorra -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.3%
Esperança d'Andorra -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D00D10W01L00D01L02LH·UE 07/02H·INT14/02H·CAR22/02A·INT01/03H·FC 21/03A·ESP13/04H·UE 18/04A·ORD26/04H·RAN10/05A·ATL17/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.530.270.600.400.47
vs Stronger (15)0.200.800.140.710.250.88
vs Similar (14)0.500.290.380.500.670.00
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L01L10W00D01L00D01L01L10WH·CAR15/02H·RAN22/02A·ATL28/02H·CAR08/03A·INT22/03H·PEN13/04A·FC 19/04H·UE 10/05A·ORD16/05H·SPO27/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.900.330.870.130.93
vs Stronger (17)0.061.180.121.250.001.11
vs Similar (11)0.360.640.500.500.200.80
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D00D12L01L00D01L10W11D00DH·UE 07/02H·INT14/02H·CAR22/02A·INT01/03H·FC 21/03A·ESP13/04H·UE 18/04A·ORD26/04H·RAN10/05A·ATL17/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.100.871.200.471.00
vs Stronger (15)0.331.270.431.430.251.12
vs Similar (14)0.931.001.251.000.501.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W11D31W20W00D04L02L21W10WH·CAR15/02H·RAN22/02A·ATL28/02H·CAR08/03A·INT22/03H·PEN13/04A·FC 19/04H·UE 10/05A·ORD16/05H·SPO27/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.100.330.730.671.47
vs Stronger (17)0.351.470.121.120.561.78
vs Similar (11)0.640.730.500.330.801.20
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.0%-------
Under 6.597.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.1%-------
Under 5.592.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.7%-------
Home +2 handicap87.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.8%-------
Under 4.583.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.4%-------
Over 1.579.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals77.5%-------
Away +2 handicap76.0%-------
Home or Away73.4%-------
Home or Draw71.7%-------
Home +1 handicap71.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals71.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada's squad is €1m more valuable than Esperança d'Andorra's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Penya Encarnada's defence is €1m more valuable than Esperança d'Andorra's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
8
PE wins
0
Draws
0
ED wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Penya Encarnada vs Esperança d'Andorra · H/A from PE
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/26AEsperança d'Andorra Vs PE0-1
01/02/26HPE Vs Esperança d'Andorra1-0
09/11/25AEsperança d'Andorra Vs PE0-1
27/04/25HPE Vs Esperança d'Andorra4-1
16/02/25AEsperança d'Andorra Vs PE1-2
29/09/24HPE Vs Esperança d'Andorra4-1
05/05/24HPE Vs Esperança d'Andorra3-2
03/12/23AEsperança d'Andorra Vs PE0-3

Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26AAtlètic Club d'Escaldes Vs PE2-0
10/05/26HPE Vs Ranger's1-2
26/04/26AOrdino Vs PE0-1
18/04/26HPE Vs UE Santa Coloma0-2
13/04/26AEsperança d'Andorra Vs PE0-1
21/03/26HPE Vs FC Santa Coloma0-1
01/03/26AInter Club d'Escaldes Vs PE2-1
22/02/26HPE Vs Carroi0-0
14/02/26HPE Vs Inter Club d'Escaldes0-1
07/02/26HPE Vs UE Santa Coloma2-1

Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/26HED Vs Sporting Escaldes2-0
23/05/26ASporting Escaldes Vs ED1-3
16/05/26AOrdino Vs ED2-2
10/05/26HED Vs UE Santa Coloma0-3
19/04/26AFC Santa Coloma Vs ED4-0
13/04/26HED Vs Penya Encarnada0-1
22/03/26AInter Club d'Escaldes Vs ED0-2
08/03/26HED Vs Carroi4-1
28/02/26AAtlètic Club d'Escaldes Vs ED2-1
22/02/26HED Vs Ranger's1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
Andorra: 1a Divisió
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.14
HomeLDLLL1.25
AwayLLWWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%33%31%
AVG goals2.702.582.81
Over 1.5 %64%62%65%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.021.080.96
Conceded1.681.501.85
BTTS42%42%42%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Esperança d
Esperança d'Andorra
Andorra: 1a Divisió
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW0.54
HomeDWLLW0.52
AwayLWLDW0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%12%12%
AVG goals3.182.883.48
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %40%32%48%
Scored0.700.560.84
Conceded2.482.322.64
BTTS40%28%52%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Inter Club dInter Club d'Escaldes00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.00.0
-
2Atlètic Club dAtlètic Club d'Escaldes00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.00.0
-
3FC Santa ColomaFC Santa Coloma00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.00.0
-
4Esperança dEsperança d'Andorra00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
5Sporting EscaldesSporting Escaldes00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Penya EncarnadaPenya Encarnada00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.00.0
-
7RangerRanger's00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
8OrdinoOrdino00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
9CarroiCarroi00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.00.0
-
10Casa de PortugalCasa de Portugal00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →

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