The model favours an away win for Ranger's, with a 56% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of a Penya Encarnada win. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3% probability.
Penya Encarnada, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Ranger's, on the road and facing a comparable side, averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.89 conceded. Ranger's recent form is strong, winning their last two games, while Penya Encarnada has just suffered two straight defeats.
The model’s selections include: Under 7.5 goals (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.5%), Away +2 handicap (93.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2%), and Under 4.5 (87.1%). Each of these picks carries its own probability, with the edge percentages noted where provided.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penya Encarnada win
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ranger's win
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Penya Encarnada
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.63
1.13
1.80
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
2.07
0.57
2.14
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.29
1.62
1.50
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ranger's
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.90
2.00
1.14
1.75
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.50
1.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.89
0.78
1.78
0.67
2.00
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.38
3.50
0.50
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.2%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
0-3
6.2%
1-3
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
Penya Encarnada goals ↓
Ranger's goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
11%
11%
6.2%
2.7%
1
5.4%
12%
9.7%
5.6%
2.4%
2
3.0%
5.1%
4.4%
2.6%
1.1%
3
0.9%
1.6%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penya Encarnada goals (down), columns = Ranger's goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Penya Encarnada is 1.00 points worse than Ranger's in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Penya Encarnada is 1.12 goals worse than Ranger's in terms of goals scored per game (0.79 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Penya Encarnada is 0.79 goals worse than Ranger's in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Penya Encarnada or Draw
44.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
26%
56%
covers Penya Encarnada + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada or Ranger's
74.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
26%
56%
covers Penya Encarnada + Ranger's
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ranger's
81.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
26%
56%
covers Draw + Ranger's
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Penya Encarnada, so a minus line means Penya Encarnada give that many goals of a start and Ranger's receive them. At -1, Penya Encarnada must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Penya Encarnada win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.8%
Ranger's +2
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada -1
6.5%
Draw -1
12.0%
Ranger's +1
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada +1
44.4%
Draw +1
23.8%
Ranger's -1
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Penya Encarnada)
Penya Encarnada +2
68.2%
Draw +2
17.5%
Ranger's -2
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penya Encarnada
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.80
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.29
0.38
0.50
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ranger's
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.39
0.78
0.22
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.83
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penya Encarnada
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.87
1.20
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
1.27
0.43
1.43
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ranger's
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.14
0.57
0.88
0.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.39
1.00
0.44
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
2.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Ranger's have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Ranger's have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Ranger's have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Penya Encarnada and Ranger's have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
FC Santa Coloma
Esperança d'Andorra
Sporting Escaldes
Ordino
Carroi
Casa de Portugal