This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.27
1.12
1.69
1.29
2.93
vs Stronger (22)
1.27
2.45
1.15
1.69
1.44
3.56
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.8%
@ 2.02-0.1%
Under 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.79+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-0 ✓
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
Perugia goals ↓
Crotone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
8.3%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.1%
14%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.9%
8.4%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.0%
3.7%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Perugia goals (down), columns = Crotone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lecce
1.87
Cremonese
1.82
Pisa
1.76
Monza
1.76
Brescia
1.74
Ascoli
1.71
Benevento
1.66
Frosinone
1.53
Perugia
1.53
Ternana
1.42
Cittadella
1.37
Parma
1.29
Reggina
1.26
Como
1.24
Spal
1.11
Cosenza
0.92
Alessandria
0.89
Vicenza Virtus
0.89
Crotone
0.68
Pordenone
0.47
Perugia is 0.84 points better than Crotone in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benevento
1.63
Monza
1.58
Lecce
1.55
Frosinone
1.53
Ternana
1.53
Cremonese
1.50
Brescia
1.45
Ascoli
1.37
Como
1.29
Pisa
1.26
Parma
1.26
Spal
1.21
Crotone
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Cittadella
1.00
Vicenza Virtus
1.00
Alessandria
0.97
Cosenza
0.95
Reggina
0.82
Pordenone
0.76
Perugia is 0.03 goals worse than Crotone in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lecce
0.82
Perugia
0.84
Pisa
0.92
Brescia
0.92
Cittadella
0.95
Monza
1.00
Cremonese
1.03
Benevento
1.03
Ascoli
1.11
Parma
1.13
Frosinone
1.18
Reggina
1.29
Spal
1.42
Como
1.42
Alessandria
1.55
Cosenza
1.55
Vicenza Virtus
1.55
Ternana
1.61
Crotone
1.61
Pordenone
1.87
Perugia is 0.76 goals better than Crotone in terms of goals conceded per game (0.84 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Perugia
For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.4 · Against 15.9 · Total 33.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
C
Crotone
For 6.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 14.1 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Perugia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.5
9.2
5.5
5.6
5.4
32.5
32.2
32.8
vs Stronger (16)
9.2
10.3
8.6
5.1
5.0
5.1
32.4
34.0
31.5
vs Similar (34)
10.1
10.6
9.6
5.7
5.8
5.6
32.6
31.7
33.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
58%
50%
84%
88%
81%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
16%
12%
19%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.4
5.1
5.5
4.6
28.0
29.5
26.4
vs Stronger (41)
9.8
10.5
9.1
5.0
5.5
4.5
27.9
29.4
26.2
vs Similar (9)
11.7
13.0
10.6
5.4
6.0
5.0
28.7
30.5
27.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
78%
81%
75%
84%
88%
79%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
22%
19%
25%
16%
12%
21%
This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.8
Alessandria
10.8
Spal
10.7
Brescia
10.6
Pisa
10.5
Benevento
10.5
Cittadella
10.3
Monza
10.2
Reggina
10.2
Cremonese
10.2
Crotone
10.1
Lecce
10.1
Cosenza
10.1
Pordenone
9.9
Ternana
9.9
Perugia
9.8
Como
9.8
Ascoli
9.7
Parma
9.6
Vicenza Virtus
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Reggina
6.1
Ascoli
5.9
Pordenone
5.7
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Perugia
5.5
Spal
5.4
Cittadella
5.3
Pisa
5.3
Como
5.2
Crotone
5.1
Cosenza
5.1
Frosinone
5.1
Monza
5.0
Benevento
4.9
Cremonese
4.9
Alessandria
4.8
Parma
4.8
Brescia
4.7
Lecce
4.7
Ternana
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
34.4
Cittadella
33.4
Pordenone
33.0
Perugia
32.5
Pisa
32.5
Ascoli
32.5
Vicenza Virtus
32.3
Spal
32.1
Monza
31.7
Frosinone
31.6
Alessandria
30.6
Cremonese
29.8
Como
29.5
Ternana
29.2
Benevento
29.1
Crotone
28.0
Cosenza
28.0
Brescia
27.9
Parma
27.4
Lecce
26.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.6%
Under 3.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.9%
Under 21.5
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Perugia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.50
0.64
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.33
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.70
0.64
0.73
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.56
0.62
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (22)
0.68
0.82
0.54
0.54
0.89
1.22
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.67
1.00
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Perugia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Perugia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.21
0.57
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.70
0.00
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.35
0.27
0.45
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.43
0.56
1.06
0.64
1.86
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
1.64
0.62
1.15
0.56
2.33
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.67
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Perugia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Perugia · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Casasola26%
Luca Strizzolo20%
Giuseppe Di Serio15%
Samuel Di Carmine14%
Francesco Lisi12%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Federico Melchiorri11%
Marco Olivieri8%
Christian Kouan6%
Gabriele Angella6%
Simone Santoro6%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Paolo Bartolomei0%
Ryder Matos0%
Marcos Curado0%
Cristian Dell'Orco0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Aleandro Rosi0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Yeferson Paz0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Curado43%
Francesco Lisi35%
Aleandro Rosi33%
Simone Santoro29%
Yeferson Paz27%
Marco Olivieri24%
Cristian Dell'Orco24%
Tiago Casasola23%
Christian Kouan23%
Federico Melchiorri22%
Aljaž Struna21%
Paolo Bartolomei19%
Giuseppe Di Serio19%
Edoardo Iannoni18%
Damiano Cancellieri17%
Leonardo Capezzi15%
Miloš Vulić12%
Gabriele Angella12%
Filippo Sgarbi12%
Samuel Di Carmine7%
Ryder Matos7%
Luca Strizzolo7%
Gregorio Luperini3%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Francesco Lisi15%
Aleandro Rosi13%
Tiago Casasola11%
Emmanuel Ekong11%
Paolo Bartolomei9%
Giuseppe Di Serio7%
Ryder Matos7%
Gabriele Angella6%
Filippo Sgarbi6%
Federico Melchiorri6%
Cristian Dell'Orco5%
Samuel Di Carmine3%
Marcos Curado3%
Christian Kouan3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Gregorio Luperini0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Marco Olivieri0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Yeferson Paz0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Di Carmine17%
Marco Olivieri16%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Federico Melchiorri11%
Francesco Lisi8%
Yeferson Paz8%
Giuseppe Di Serio7%
Paolo Bartolomei6%
Gabriele Angella6%
Tiago Casasola6%
Christian Kouan3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Ryder Matos0%
Marcos Curado0%
Cristian Dell'Orco0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Aleandro Rosi0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Perugia
Lecce
Cremonese
Monza
Pisa
Brescia
Ascoli
Benevento
Frosinone
Ternana
Cittadella
Parma
Reggina
Como
Spal
Cosenza
Vicenza Virtus