This match at the English League One level is expected to be a high-scoring contest, with an average of 3 goals anticipated. Peterboro, coming off a defeat, will look to bounce back against Doncaster, who are riding a wave of momentum after a win against the same opponent last time out. However, Peterboro's recent form at home is worth noting, with a similar opponent strength and an average of 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Doncaster, on the other hand, has struggled to find the back of the net away from home, averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opponents.
The model favours a home win for Peterboro, with a 43% chance of success. The probability of a draw is 26%, while Doncaster has a 30% chance of taking the three points. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.3%. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 43%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has an 80.8% chance of occurring.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came as Doncaster stunned Peterboro 3-1, extending their recent winning streak. This win marks a reversal for the home side, who were coming off a defeat and had a struggling recent form of LDLDL. In a surprising turn of events, the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to come through, with the model's selection also proving incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 43% probability.
The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, while the suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit, with an 80.8% probability. Another suggested pick, the most likely score of 2-1, missed, with a 9.1% probability. The final score of 1-3 was a far cry from the most likely outcome, with 2-1 being the most probable score at 9.1%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Peterboro win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied 34.5% · @ 2.69
Edge
+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.73
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Doncaster win✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.29
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Peterboro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.43
1.86
1.21
1.19
1.62
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.46
1.39
1.77
1.23
1.20
1.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.63
1.19
1.62
1.21
1.64
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.83
1.00
1.75
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.58
1.25
1.58
1.25
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.47-6.2%
Under 2.5
43.0%
@ 2.53+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.5%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.8%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.8%
Peterboro goals ↓
Doncaster goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.8%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.2%
12%
7.5%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.1%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.7%
5.0%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Peterboro goals (down), columns = Doncaster goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln
2.24
Cardiff
1.98
Bolton
1.71
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Stevenage
1.56
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Burton
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Exeter
1.07
Port Vale
0.91
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.76
Peterboro is 0.15 points worse than Doncaster in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cardiff
1.96
Lincoln
1.93
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Bolton
1.55
Stockport
1.53
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Exeter
1.13
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Stevenage
1.02
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.85
Port Vale
0.78
Peterboro is 0.30 goals better than Doncaster in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln
0.89
Stevenage
1.02
Bolton
1.08
Mansfield
1.09
Cardiff
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Luton
1.22
Wigan
1.26
Wycombe
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Port Vale
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Doncaster
1.50
Leyton Orient
1.54
Rotherham
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Northampton
1.61
Peterboro is 0.02 goals better than Doncaster in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Cardiff
63%
Bolton
59%
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Exeter
51%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Port Vale
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Rotherham
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Northampton
45%
Lincoln
42%
Peterboro is 4.8 percentage points better than Doncaster in terms of average possession (55% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Peterboro
For 4.5 · Against 7.6 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 13.5 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
For 3.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterboro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.3
4.2
4.0
4.3
23.9
23.8
24.0
vs Stronger (4)
10.2
9.5
11.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
19.8
21.0
18.5
vs Similar (46)
10.2
10.1
10.3
4.3
4.2
4.3
24.3
24.1
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
48%
54%
66%
58%
73%
65%
70%
62%
% under line
49%
52%
46%
34%
42%
27%
35%
30%
38%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
23.1
23.2
23.1
vs Stronger (9)
10.2
9.8
10.6
4.4
5.0
4.0
23.8
24.2
23.4
vs Similar (41)
9.8
9.6
10.0
3.7
3.6
3.8
23.0
23.0
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
35%
42%
52%
57%
48%
61%
57%
65%
% under line
61%
65%
58%
48%
43%
52%
39%
43%
35%
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.3
Port Vale
10.6
Barnsley
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Burton
10.5
Cardiff
10.4
Peterboro
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Blackpool
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Northampton
9.9
Doncaster
9.8
Bradford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Mansfield
9.6
Rotherham
9.5
Reading
9.2
Lincoln
9.2
Stevenage
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Bradford
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Bolton
3.8
Stevenage
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Burton
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Reading
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
Stockport
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.9
Huddersfield
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Plymouth
24.1
Rotherham
24.0
Peterboro
23.9
Blackpool
23.7
Luton
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Doncaster
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Leyton Orient
22.9
Lincoln
22.8
Reading
22.5
Bolton
22.5
Mansfield
22.4
Northampton
22.2
Burton
22.0
Exeter
21.8
Wycombe
21.6
Port Vale
21.6
Stockport
21.4
Barnsley
21.0
Cardiff
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.2%
Under 9.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.2%
Under 3.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.4%
Under 21.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Peterboro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.64
0.50
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.68
0.62
0.54
0.33
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.58
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Peterboro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Peterboro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.21
0.71
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.00
0.71
1.15
0.69
0.87
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.56
1.00
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
1.00
0.42
1.08
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Peterboro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (25)
€31m
LUT (28)
€29m
HUD (27)
€16m
BOL (24)
€14m
LO (28)
€13m
STO (27)
€13m
PLY (27)
€12m
BLA (23)
€12m
REA (26)
€11m
LIN (27)
€10m
WYC (25)
€10m
STE (25)
€9m
WIG (27)
€9m
PV (31)
€8m
ROT (28)
€8m
PET (26)
€8m
BUR (27)
€8m
BRA (23)
€7m
BAR (20)
€7m
DON (27)
€7m
MAN (27)
€6m
AW (23)
€5m
EXE (22)
€5m
NOR (23)
€4m
Peterboro's squad is €1m more valuable than Doncaster's (€8m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUT (13)
€16m
CAR (10)
€13m
BOL (9)
€8m
STO (8)
€6m
LO (7)
€6m
HUD (9)
€5m
BLA (8)
€4m
LIN (9)
€4m
PLY (8)
€4m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WYC (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
AW (10)
€2m
REA (6)
€2m
MAN (9)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
DON (7)
€2m
EXE (7)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€1m
NOR (7)
€1m
Peterboro's attack is €1m more valuable than Doncaster's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (4)
€7m
LUT (7)
€5m
HUD (5)
€4m
REA (7)
€4m
LO (8)
€3m
BRA (6)
€3m
PLY (7)
€3m
ROT (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
LIN (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
BOL (4)
€2m
BLA (5)
€2m
DON (9)
€2m
PV (9)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
STO (5)
€2m
MAN (5)
€2m
PET (5)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
NOR (6)
€1m
EXE (6)
€1m
AW (6)
€1m
Peterboro and Doncaster have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (11)
€12m
LUT (8)
€8m
HUD (13)
€7m
BLA (10)
€6m
PLY (12)
€6m
STO (14)
€5m
PV (15)
€5m
REA (13)
€5m
WYC (12)
€4m
BUR (13)
€4m
LO (13)
€4m
LIN (12)
€4m
BOL (11)
€4m
BAR (10)
€4m
STE (10)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
ROT (11)
€3m
PET (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€2m
MAN (13)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
EXE (9)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
Peterboro and Doncaster have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Port Vale
Rotherham
Northampton