In a finely balanced encounter, Mansfield's recent unbeaten run in their last 5 matches (WDWWD) against stronger opponents contrasts with Peterboro's struggles, including a 1-3 defeat to Doncaster in their last outing. The model's selection is the Away win, which has a 39% chance of occurring. Conversely, Peterboro's home win percentage stands at 34%, while a draw is possible in 27% of cases. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which has a 12.5% probability. Peterboro has scored an average of 1.92 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.33 goals. Mansfield, on the other hand, has scored 1.3 goals away against similar opponents, but conceded 1.2 goals. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has an 80.4% chance of occurring, while the Away side's away scoring edge is present.
Results analysis
The draw extends Mansfield's unbeaten run, a surprise result given the pre-match favourite, Peterboro, failed to come through. The actual result was a 0-0 scoreline, a draw that saw the model's selection, Mansfield to win, prove incorrect. The model's call was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection, Mansfield to win, had a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection, Mansfield to win, had a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, with a probability of 80.4%, while the most likely score was a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.5%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Peterboro win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.59
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.47
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mansfield win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.49
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Peterboro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.47
1.86
1.29
1.19
1.62
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.46
1.43
1.77
1.31
1.20
1.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.97
1.33
1.07
1.40
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.29
0.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.35
0.87
1.50
0.92
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.61-1.3%
Under 2.5
43.6%
@ 2.20+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.9%
0-0 ✓
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
Peterboro goals ↓
Mansfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.9%
6.2%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.3%
13%
8.7%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.1%
6.2%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.5%
3.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Peterboro goals (down), columns = Mansfield goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln
2.24
Cardiff
1.98
Bolton
1.71
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Stevenage
1.56
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Burton
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Exeter
1.07
Port Vale
0.91
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.76
Peterboro is 0.26 points worse than Mansfield in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cardiff
1.96
Lincoln
1.93
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Bolton
1.55
Stockport
1.53
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Exeter
1.13
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Stevenage
1.02
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.85
Port Vale
0.78
Peterboro is 0.04 goals better than Mansfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln
0.89
Stevenage
1.02
Bolton
1.08
Mansfield
1.09
Cardiff
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Luton
1.22
Wigan
1.26
Wycombe
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Port Vale
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Doncaster
1.50
Leyton Orient
1.54
Rotherham
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Northampton
1.61
Peterboro is 0.39 goals worse than Mansfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Cardiff
63%
Bolton
59%
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Exeter
51%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Port Vale
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Rotherham
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Northampton
45%
Lincoln
42%
Peterboro is 9.2 percentage points better than Mansfield in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Peterboro
For 4.2 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 13.2 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mansfield
For 4.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterboro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
24.0
24.0
24.0
vs Stronger (5)
10.4
10.0
11.0
4.2
4.3
4.0
20.6
22.0
18.5
vs Similar (45)
10.2
10.1
10.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
24.4
24.4
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
48%
54%
68%
62%
73%
67%
74%
62%
% under line
49%
52%
46%
32%
38%
27%
33%
26%
38%
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.5
9.6
3.5
3.2
3.8
22.4
21.9
22.8
vs Stronger (8)
10.5
8.3
11.8
4.2
4.0
4.4
18.4
21.7
16.4
vs Similar (40)
9.4
9.7
9.1
3.5
3.3
3.8
23.1
21.9
24.4
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
42%
43%
40%
46%
42%
50%
58%
57%
60%
% under line
58%
57%
60%
54%
58%
50%
42%
43%
40%
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.3
Port Vale
10.7
Barnsley
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Burton
10.5
Cardiff
10.4
Bolton
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Blackpool
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Northampton
10.0
Doncaster
9.8
Bradford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Mansfield
9.6
Rotherham
9.5
Reading
9.2
Lincoln
9.2
Stevenage
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Bradford
4.4
Peterboro
4.4
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Bolton
3.8
Stevenage
3.7
Luton
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Burton
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Reading
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Stockport
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
Exeter
3.4
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.9
Huddersfield
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Plymouth
24.1
Rotherham
24.0
Peterboro
23.9
Blackpool
23.7
Luton
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Doncaster
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Leyton Orient
22.9
Lincoln
22.8
Reading
22.5
Bolton
22.5
Mansfield
22.4
Northampton
22.3
Burton
22.0
Exeter
21.8
Stockport
21.7
Wycombe
21.6
Port Vale
21.5
Barnsley
21.0
Cardiff
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.0%
Under 9.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
41.8%
Under 21.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Peterboro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.71
0.62
0.62
0.33
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.33
1.00
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.39
0.58
0.33
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Peterboro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Peterboro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.21
0.71
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.00
0.71
1.15
0.69
0.87
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.57
0.33
0.67
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.48
0.92
0.58
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Peterboro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (25)
€31m
LUT (28)
€29m
HUD (27)
€16m
BOL (24)
€14m
LO (28)
€13m
STO (27)
€13m
PLY (27)
€12m
BLA (23)
€12m
REA (26)
€11m
LIN (27)
€10m
WYC (25)
€10m
STE (25)
€9m
WIG (27)
€9m
PV (31)
€8m
ROT (28)
€8m
PET (26)
€8m
BUR (27)
€8m
BRA (23)
€7m
BAR (20)
€7m
DON (27)
€7m
MAN (27)
€6m
AW (23)
€5m
EXE (22)
€5m
NOR (23)
€4m
Peterboro's squad is €1m more valuable than Mansfield's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUT (13)
€16m
CAR (10)
€13m
BOL (9)
€8m
STO (8)
€6m
LO (7)
€6m
HUD (9)
€5m
BLA (8)
€4m
LIN (9)
€4m
PLY (8)
€4m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WYC (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
AW (10)
€2m
REA (6)
€2m
MAN (9)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
DON (7)
€2m
EXE (7)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€1m
NOR (7)
€1m
Peterboro and Mansfield have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (4)
€7m
LUT (7)
€5m
HUD (5)
€4m
REA (7)
€4m
LO (8)
€3m
BRA (6)
€3m
PLY (7)
€3m
ROT (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
LIN (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
BOL (4)
€2m
BLA (5)
€2m
DON (9)
€2m
PV (9)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
STO (5)
€2m
MAN (5)
€2m
PET (5)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
NOR (6)
€1m
EXE (6)
€1m
AW (6)
€1m
Peterboro and Mansfield have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (11)
€12m
LUT (8)
€8m
HUD (13)
€7m
BLA (10)
€6m
PLY (12)
€6m
STO (14)
€5m
PV (15)
€5m
REA (13)
€5m
WYC (12)
€4m
BUR (13)
€4m
LO (13)
€4m
LIN (12)
€4m
BOL (11)
€4m
BAR (10)
€4m
STE (10)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
ROT (11)
€3m
PET (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€2m
MAN (13)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
EXE (9)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
Peterboro and Mansfield have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Port Vale
Rotherham
Northampton