Mansfield is expected to win this match, with a likely low-scoring game unfolding. Recent form suggests a storyline where Mansfield is on a 2-game winning run, while Peterboro is struggling after two straight defeats. The model predicts an away win, with a 58% probability, while giving a 24% chance to a draw and just an 18% chance to Peterboro.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.4%. Peterboro has scored an average of 1.85 goals at home, conceding 1.38 on average, while Mansfield has scored 1.3 goals away, conceding 0.9.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.1% probability, and Home or Away, with a 71.4% probability. Peterboro has an 18% chance of winning, while Mansfield has a 58% chance and a draw is 24% likely.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win with a 56 % probability, failed as Peterboro edged Mansfield 2-1. The upset follows Peterboro’s recent win, extending a positive run, while Mansfield comes off a defeat. The final score of 2-1 gave the home side the victory, contrary to the model’s expectation. The model’s selection was therefore incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.3 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 94.9 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure appears only once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Peterboro win✓ Hit
19.1%
Avg Implied 34.2% · @ 2.71
Edge
-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.81
Betano
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Unibet
2.75
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.52
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.67
10Bet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Mansfield win✗ Miss
56.1%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.36
Edge
+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.44
Bet365
2.40
Unibet
2.40
Dafabet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Peterboro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.93
1.36
1.06
1.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.54
1.46
2.08
1.38
1.07
1.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.62
1.31
1.29
0.79
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.71
1.00
2.33
2.00
1.25
vs Similar (23)
1.43
0.87
1.77
1.08
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
@ 1.18-0.2%
Under 1.5
21.5%
@ 4.39+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
4.80
Superbet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.63-3.9%
Under 2.5
46.1%
@ 2.22+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
10Bet
1.65
888Sport
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.6%
@ 2.51-5.4%
Under 3.5
68.4%
@ 1.48+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Under
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.1%
@ 1.50-7.4%
No
45.9%
@ 2.40+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
888Sport
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
William Hil
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 6.73+5.1%
0-2
9.9%@ 12.73+6.4%
1-2
9.9%@ 8.57+4.6%
0-1
9.7%@ 9.93+5.2%
0-0
7.0%@ 13.00+3.5%
0-3
6.1%@ 23.10+4.1%
1-3
6.1%@ 15.66+3.2%
2-1 ✓
5.4%@ 9.26+0.5%
Peterboro goals ↓
Mansfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
9.7%
9.9%
6.1%
2.8%
1
4.8%
12%
9.9%
6.1%
2.8%
2
2.9%
5.4%
4.9%
3.0%
1.4%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Peterboro goals (down), columns = Mansfield goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Peterboro is 0.26 points worse than Mansfield in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Peterboro is 0.04 goals better than Mansfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Peterboro is 0.39 goals worse than Mansfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Peterboro is 9.2 percentage points better than Mansfield in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Peterboro
For 5.2 · Against 6.5 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 13.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mansfield
For 5.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterboro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.4
4.2
4.0
4.5
23.8
23.7
24.0
vs Stronger (4)
11.5
13.5
9.5
6.0
7.0
5.0
28.2
30.5
26.0
vs Similar (45)
10.1
9.7
10.5
4.0
3.7
4.3
23.2
23.0
23.3
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
-
10.0
8.0
-
8.0
35.0
-
35.0
% over line
51%
46%
56%
68%
60%
76%
63%
67%
60%
% under line
49%
54%
44%
32%
40%
24%
37%
33%
40%
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.9
9.8
3.5
3.4
3.7
22.0
21.8
22.3
vs Stronger (11)
9.5
9.6
9.5
3.6
3.8
3.5
21.3
22.4
20.3
vs Similar (37)
9.9
10.0
9.8
3.7
3.4
3.9
22.3
21.6
23.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
44%
46%
42%
44%
40%
48%
54%
50%
58%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
56%
60%
52%
46%
50%
42%
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Leicester
11.0
Barnsley
10.9
Wigan
10.7
Blackpool
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Luton
10.3
Burton
10.3
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.1
Stevenage
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.3
Peterboro
4.3
Huddersfield
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Stevenage
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.6
Notts County
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Huddersfield
24.3
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Blackpool
23.5
Wigan
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Cambridge
22.6
Reading
22.6
Mansfield
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Burton
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
21.0
Barnsley
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.4%
@ 1.65+0.1%
Under 9.5
43.6%
@ 2.12-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Under
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.8%
Under 21.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Peterboro or Draw✓ Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied 60.4% · @ 1.54
Edge
+7.4%
19%
25%
56%
covers Peterboro + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Peterboro or Mansfield✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.2%
19%
25%
56%
covers Peterboro + Mansfield
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Mansfield✗ Miss
60.8%
Avg Implied 66.0% · @ 1.41
Edge
-5.2%
19%
25%
56%
covers Draw + Mansfield
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.41
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Peterboro over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.1%
@ 1.23-0.7%
Under
24.9%
@ 3.84+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.08
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Peterboro over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.4%
@ 2.16-2.8%
Under
59.6%
@ 1.64+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Under
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.64
Peterboro over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 4.71-3.4%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.16+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Peterboro over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 10.88-3.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Mansfield over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
@ 1.19-7.0%
Under
29.0%
@ 4.22+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
4.25
888Sport
4.20
Mansfield over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.1%
@ 1.97-12.1%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.77+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Under
Betfair
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Mansfield over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 4.12-9.6%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.20+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.21
888Sport
4.20
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Mansfield over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 9.45-6.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.04+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Peterboro, so a minus line means Peterboro give that many goals of a start and Mansfield receive them. At -1, Peterboro must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Peterboro win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Peterboro)Actual: Mansfield
Peterboro -2
7.0%
@ 10.48-1.5%
Draw -2
11.9%
@ 7.16-0.4%
Mansfield +2
81.1%
@ 1.12+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Peterboro)Actual: Draw
Peterboro -1
18.9%
@ 5.11+1.4%
Draw -1
20.3%
@ 4.54+0.6%
Mansfield +1
60.8%
@ 1.42-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Handicap +1 (Peterboro)Actual: Peterboro
Peterboro +1
67.8%
@ 1.55+10.0%
Draw +1
18.0%
@ 4.14-3.7%
Mansfield -1
14.2%
@ 4.36-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Unibet
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Handicap +2 (Peterboro)Actual: Peterboro
Peterboro +2
85.8%
@ 1.17+9.0%
Draw +2
9.5%
@ 6.71-3.9%
Mansfield -2
4.7%
@ 9.16-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.90
Superbet
8.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Peterboro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.64
0.50
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.57
0.69
0.46
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.69
0.38
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.22
0.69
0.23
0.50
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.29-2.4%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.36+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.7%
@ 2.35-6.8%
Under 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.54+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.36
Under
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 5.47-6.2%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.11+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Under
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Peterboro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 1.95-1.9%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.77+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Peterboro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 5.88-4.3%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.10+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
Betano
5.90
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Peterboro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 16.67-3.8%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Mansfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 1.85-6.7%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.86+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Mansfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.29-5.8%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.12+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Mansfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 14.67-3.8%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Peterboro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.87
1.29
0.86
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.00
0.89
1.38
0.92
0.67
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mansfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mansfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.94
0.94
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.86
0.33
1.33
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.65
1.08
0.85
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterboro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.1%
Under 0.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.0%
Under 1.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Peterboro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterboro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mansfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.4%
1.17
Betfair
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
888Sport
1.20
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.6%
1.16
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
81.1%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.5%
1.18
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.4%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-7.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Peterboro
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Leonard60%
B. Woods20%
Harrison Jones20%
Bolu Shofowoke20%
L. Kelly0%
Alex Bass0%
Thomas O'Connor0%
Carl Johnston0%
Owura Edwards0%
Chris Conn-Clarke0%
D. Okagbue0%
Brandon Khela0%
Ethan Williams0%
James Dornelly0%
Harley Mills0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carl Johnston25%
Brandon Khela25%
James Dornelly25%
H. Leonard20%
Harrison Jones20%
L. Kelly0%
Alex Bass0%
Thomas O'Connor0%
Owura Edwards0%
Chris Conn-Clarke0%
D. Okagbue0%
B. Woods0%
Ethan Williams0%
Harley Mills0%
Bolu Shofowoke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Woods20%
L. Kelly0%
Alex Bass0%
Thomas O'Connor0%
Carl Johnston0%
Owura Edwards0%
Chris Conn-Clarke0%
H. Leonard0%
D. Okagbue0%
Brandon Khela0%
Harrison Jones0%
Ethan Williams0%
James Dornelly0%
Harley Mills0%
Bolu Shofowoke0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Leonard40%
Brandon Khela25%
Ethan Williams25%
Harrison Jones20%
L. Kelly0%
Alex Bass0%
Thomas O'Connor0%
Carl Johnston0%
Owura Edwards0%
Chris Conn-Clarke0%
D. Okagbue0%
B. Woods0%
James Dornelly0%
Harley Mills0%
Bolu Shofowoke0%
Mansfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Smith33%
Jon Russell33%
L. Reed25%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
R. Oates0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
R. Hendry0%
L. Thompson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Sweeney50%
L. Reed50%
R. Oates25%
R. Hendry25%
L. Thompson25%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
M. Smith0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
Jon Russell0%
N. Moriah-Welsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jon Russell33%
R. Oates25%
R. Hendry25%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
D. McGoldrick0%
M. Smith0%
L. Reed0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
L. Thompson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. McGoldrick33%
Jon Russell33%
N. Moriah-Welsh25%
Ryan Sweeney0%
R. Oates0%
Elliott Hewitt0%
M. Smith0%
L. Reed0%
Lucas Akins0%
Stephen McLaughlin0%
A. Oshilaja0%
Frazer Blake-Tracy0%
R. Hendry0%
L. Thompson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Peterboro and Mansfield have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Peterboro's attack is €2m more valuable than Mansfield's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Peterboro's midfield is €2m less valuable than Mansfield's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Peterboro and Mansfield have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe