Phoenix are primed for a high-scoring outing, with the model forecasting an average of 5.9 goals and a 53% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 3-2, a 5.7% probability that Phoenix will edge Vaprus. Home advantage is clear: Phoenix average five goals at home against weaker opposition while conceding only 1.33, whereas Vaprus, playing away against stronger sides, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. The model favours a Phoenix win, with a 56% home win probability, 16% draw and 28% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (98.4%), Over 2.5 (93.4%), Over 3.5 (84.0%) and Away over 0.5 goals (91.8%). Home over 0.5 goals (96.7%) and Home over 1.5 goals (85.3%) are marked as misses, while Home +2 handicap (84.3%) and BTTS Yes (89.0%) are also misses. The model’s selections reflect a strong expectation of a prolific attack from Phoenix, but Vaprus’s recent defeat to Nõmme United suggests caution.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Phoenix lost 0-5, a result that shocked the Cup crowd and confirmed the model’s prediction was wrong. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 56% probability, yet the away side prevailed. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals hit, as did Over 2.5, Over 3.5 and Away over 0.5 goals, each with probabilities of 98.4%, 93.4%, 84.0% and 91.8% respectively. Home over 0.5 goals, Home over 1.5 goals, Home +2 handicap and BTTS Yes missed, with chances of 96.7%, 85.3%, 84.3% and 89.0%. Phoenix’s recent form shows a win streak interrupted by a defeat, while Vaprus also came off a loss. The model’s call was incorrect, but many of its other selections proved accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Phoenix win✗ Miss
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Phoenix
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.86
2.00
3.60
2.40
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
4.25
1.50
5.00
1.33
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
14% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.33
3.07
1.00
1.67
1.67
vs Stronger (16)
1.88
1.69
2.29
1.43
1.56
1.89
vs Similar (14)
2.93
0.93
3.75
0.62
1.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Phoenix) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (53%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
98.4%
Under 1.5
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
93.4%
Under 2.5
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
84.0%
Under 3.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
89.0%
No
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-2
5.7%
2-2
5.0%
4-2
4.8%
3-3
4.7%
3-1
4.5%
2-3
4.2%
4-3
4.0%
2-1
4.0%
Phoenix goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.5%
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%
1
0.7%
2.6%
2.9%
2.5%
1.5%
2
1.6%
4.0%
5.0%
4.2%
2.6%
3
1.8%
4.5%
5.7%
4.7%
3.0%
4
1.5%
3.8%
4.8%
4.0%
2.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Phoenix goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.60
Vaprus
2.40
Paide
2.40
Tartu Welco
2.40
Trans Narva
2.40
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
Elva
2.25
Nõmme United
2.25
Keila
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Laagri
2.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.00
Poseidon
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Tammeka
2.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.80
Saue
1.50
Tallinna Wolves
1.50
Joker
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Hell Hunt
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Tulevik
1.50
Tamper
1.50
Kristiine JK
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Flora II
1.50
Kuressaare
1.50
Kalju Nomme
1.50
Rae Spordikool
1.33
Volta II / Arsenal
1.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
0.96
Lahte United
0.96
Nomme Utd U19
0.96
Rakvere FC Freedom
0.96
Jõgeva Wolves
0.96
Kummik
0.96
Elva III
0.96
Deliirium
0.96
Paide III
0.96
Generation Tallinn
0.96
Rumori Calcio II
0.96
Kena
0.96
Harju JK Laagri U21
0.96
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
0.96
Järva-Jaani
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Zealot Sporting
0.00
Kose
0.00
TalTech
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
Phoenix
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Tartu Kalev
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Phoenix is 2.40 points worse than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
9.67
Tartu Welco
6.80
Tabasalu Ulasabat
6.50
Flora II
6.00
Vaprus
5.60
FC Tallinn
5.33
Flora Tallinn
4.80
Tammeka
4.67
Tallinna Wolves
4.50
Trans Narva
4.40
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.00
Kuressaare
4.00
Tallinna Kalev
3.25
Saue
3.00
Keila
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
3.00
Viimsi
3.00
Kalju Nomme
3.00
Paide
2.80
Nõmme United
2.75
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Saku Sporting
2.67
Joker
2.50
Tamper
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.50
Elva
2.25
Tammeka Tartu U19
2.24
Lahte United
2.24
Nomme Utd U19
2.24
Rakvere FC Freedom
2.24
Jõgeva Wolves
2.24
Kummik
2.24
Elva III
2.24
Deliirium
2.24
Paide III
2.24
Generation Tallinn
2.24
Rumori Calcio II
2.24
Kena
2.24
Harju JK Laagri U21
2.24
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.24
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Team Helm
2.00
Rumori Calcio
2.00
Kristiine JK
2.00
Poseidon
1.67
Järva-Jaani
1.00
Flora III
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
TalTech
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Kalev
1.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Phoenix is 4.60 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 5.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tallinna Kalev II
0.33
Laagri
0.33
Tartu Welco
0.40
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.60
Trans Narva
0.80
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.00
Paide
1.20
Elva
1.25
Nõmme United
1.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.33
Tammeka
1.33
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Poseidon
2.33
FC Tallinn
2.33
Saue
2.50
Flora II
2.50
Viimsi
2.60
Hiiumaa
3.00
Helios
3.00
Legion
3.00
Tamper
3.00
Joker
3.50
Hell Hunt
3.50
Järva-Jaani
4.00
FC Kohvile
4.00
Keila
4.00
Tallinna Wolves
4.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
4.00
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Rumori Calcio
4.00
Kristiine JK
4.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
4.31
Lahte United
4.31
Nomme Utd U19
4.31
Rakvere FC Freedom
4.31
Jõgeva Wolves
4.31
Kummik
4.31
Elva III
4.31
Deliirium
4.31
Paide III
4.31
Generation Tallinn
4.31
Rumori Calcio II
4.31
Kena
4.31
Harju JK Laagri U21
4.31
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
4.31
Raplamaa
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
6.00
Soccernet
6.00
Phoenix
6.00
JK Tabasalu
6.00
Olympic
6.00
Tulevik
6.50
Zealot Sporting
7.00
Kose
7.00
TalTech
7.00
Team Helm
7.00
Welco X
8.00
Flora III
8.00
EstHam United
9.00
Kuusalu Kalev
16.00
TransferWise
26.00
Phoenix is 5.00 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (6.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Phoenix or Draw✗ Miss
72.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
16%
28%
covers Phoenix + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Phoenix or Vaprus✓ Hit
83.7%
Avg Implied -
56%
16%
28%
covers Phoenix + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vaprus✓ Hit
44.1%
Avg Implied -
56%
16%
28%
covers Draw + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Phoenix over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
96.7%
Under
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
85.3%
Under
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Phoenix, so a minus line means Phoenix give that many goals of a start and Vaprus receive them. At -1, Phoenix must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Phoenix win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Phoenix)Actual: Vaprus
Phoenix -2
24.6%
Draw -2
14.8%
Vaprus +2
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Phoenix)Actual: Vaprus
Phoenix -1
39.4%
Draw -1
16.5%
Vaprus +1
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Phoenix)Actual: Vaprus
Phoenix +1
72.2%
Draw +1
12.1%
Vaprus -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Phoenix)Actual: Vaprus
Phoenix +2
84.3%
Draw +2
8.0%
Vaprus -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Phoenix
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.57
1.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.00
2.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.73
1.87
0.67
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
1.06
0.88
1.29
1.00
0.89
0.78
vs Similar (14)
1.86
0.57
2.38
0.38
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Phoenix) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Phoenix over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Phoenix
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.80
1.80
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
2.67
1.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
2.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
0.81
1.00
0.43
0.67
1.11
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.36
1.38
0.25
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Phoenix) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Phoenix over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
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Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →