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Pietà Hotspurs vs Gudja United Result & Analysis

Date: 12/03/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 3-1
Pietà Hotspurs
Pietà Hotspurs
Vs
17%
23%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gudja United
Gudja United
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pietà Hotspurs win✓ Hit
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gudja United win✗ Miss
60.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-615L01L13L11D12L04L06L23L02L12LH·BIR04/12H·SIR10/12H·FLO17/12A·VAL08/01H·HAM22/01A·MOS28/01H·GZI04/02A·BAL12/02H·ZEB18/02A·SAN04/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.672.670.733.180.602.10
vs Stronger (4)0.502.251.002.500.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.793.140.753.500.832.67
vs Weaker (3)0.331.000.002.000.500.50
Clean sheet %5% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L21W11D01L02L30W13L11D14LA·VAL04/12H·HAM11/12H·MOS16/12A·GZI07/01H·BAL21/01A·ZEB28/01H·SAN04/02A·BIR11/02A·MAR18/02H·HIB05/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.191.431.271.551.101.30
vs Stronger (19)1.211.421.201.601.221.22
vs Similar (2)1.001.502.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %19% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.2%
Under 2.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 3.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-3
6.9%
1-3
6.8%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
4.9%
Pietà Hotspurs goals ↓
Gudja United goals →
01234
05.8%8.9%10%6.9%3.5%
13.8%11%10.0%6.8%3.4%
22.4%4.8%4.9%3.3%1.7%
30.8%1.6%1.6%1.1%0.6%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pietà Hotspurs goals (down), columns = Gudja United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.65 points worse than Gudja United in terms of average points per game (0.46 vs 1.12).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.23 goals worse than Gudja United in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Pietà Hotspurs is 1.00 goals worse than Gudja United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L11D01L00D02L21W00D01LH·BIR04/12H·SIR10/12H·FLO17/12A·VAL08/01H·HAM22/01A·MOS28/01H·GZI04/02A·BAL12/02H·ZEB18/02A·SAN04/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.191.100.091.090.301.10
vs Stronger (4)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.291.140.121.250.501.00
vs Weaker (3)0.000.330.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %24% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D11D00D01L01L00D02L11D02LA·VAL04/12H·HAM11/12H·MOS16/12A·GZI07/01H·BAL21/01A·ZEB28/01H·SAN04/02A·BIR11/02A·MAR18/02H·HIB05/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.620.640.640.600.60
vs Stronger (19)0.580.630.500.700.670.56
vs Similar (2)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L01L12L00D11D04L04L02L02L11DH·BIR04/12H·SIR10/12H·FLO17/12A·VAL08/01H·HAM22/01A·MOS28/01H·GZI04/02A·BAL12/02H·ZEB18/02A·SAN04/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.481.570.642.090.301.00
vs Stronger (4)0.500.751.001.500.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.502.000.622.250.331.67
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.002.000.500.00
Clean sheet %29% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gudja United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L10W11D00D01L30W11D00D12LA·VAL04/12H·HAM11/12H·MOS16/12A·GZI07/01H·BAL21/01A·ZEB28/01H·SAN04/02A·BIR11/02A·MAR18/02H·HIB05/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.810.640.910.500.70
vs Stronger (19)0.630.790.700.900.560.67
vs Similar (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gudja United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
PH wins
0
Draws
1
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pietà Hotspurs vs Gudja United · H/A from PH
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/22AGudja United Vs PH1-0

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/03/23ASanta Lucía Vs PH2-1
18/02/23HPH Vs Zebbug Rangers0-2
12/02/23ABalzan FC Vs PH3-2
04/02/23HPH Vs Gzira United0-6
28/01/23AMosta Vs PH4-0
22/01/23HPH Vs Hamrun Spartans1-2
08/01/23AValletta FC Vs PH1-1
17/12/22HPH Vs Floriana1-3
10/12/22HPH Vs Sirens0-1
04/12/22HPH Vs Birkirkara1-5

Gudja UnitedGudja United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/23HGU Vs Hibernians1-4
18/02/23AMarsaxlokk Vs GU1-1
11/02/23ABirkirkara Vs GU3-1
04/02/23HGU Vs Santa Lucía3-0
28/01/23AZebbug Rangers Vs GU2-0
21/01/23HGU Vs Balzan FC0-1
07/01/23AGzira United Vs GU1-1
16/12/22HGU Vs Mosta2-1
11/12/22HGU Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
04/12/22AValletta FC Vs GU0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pietà Hotspurs
Pietà Hotspurs
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.24
HomeLLLLL0.09
AwayLDLLL0.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %5%0%10%
AVG goals3.333.912.70
Over 1.5 %86%91%80%
Over 2.5 %62%73%50%
Over 3.5 %43%55%30%
Scored0.670.730.60
Conceded2.673.182.10
BTTS52%64%40%
Clean Sheet5%0%10%
Corners---
Cards---
Gudja United
Gudja United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.33
HomeLWLWL1.27
AwayWDLLD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals2.622.822.40
Over 1.5 %76%73%80%
Over 2.5 %52%64%40%
Over 3.5 %19%18%20%
Scored1.191.271.10
Conceded1.431.551.30
BTTS57%55%60%
Clean Sheet19%18%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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