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Pietà Hotspurs vs Melita Result & Analysis

Date: 08/03/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 1-0
Pietà Hotspurs
Pietà Hotspurs
Vs
32%
26%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pietà Hotspurs win✓ Hit
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Melita win✗ Miss
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L11D13L14L10W11D60W31W13L13LH·ST.10/12H·MGA13/12A·SWI21/12A·SIR10/01H·FGU18/01H·GUD31/01A·MTA08/02H·ZUR14/02H·SWI22/02H·BAL28/02
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.431.721.171.671.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.501.671.501.301.502.12
vs Weaker (12)2.001.082.001.002.001.25
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W01L02L32W41W22D20W10W20W12LA·MGA10/12A·ST.13/12H·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.731.771.771.531.71
vs Stronger (2)2.002.002.002.00--
vs Similar (23)1.171.831.441.891.001.79
vs Weaker (5)3.601.203.001.004.001.33
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.6%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
5.4%
1-0 ✓
5.2%
Pietà Hotspurs goals ↓
Melita goals →
01234
05.4%6.2%6.2%3.5%1.5%
15.2%12%9.0%5.1%2.2%
24.5%7.7%6.5%3.7%1.6%
32.2%3.7%3.1%1.8%0.8%
40.8%1.3%1.1%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pietà Hotspurs goals (down), columns = Melita goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.08 points worse than Melita in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.05 goals better than Melita in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.21 goals worse than Melita in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D01L11D00D10W30W30W02L01LH·ST.10/12H·MGA13/12A·SWI21/12A·SIR10/01H·FGU18/01H·GUD31/01A·MTA08/02H·ZUR14/02H·SWI22/02H·BAL28/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.570.940.390.920.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.830.670.700.401.001.00
vs Weaker (12)1.080.421.250.380.750.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L01L30W10W01L10W00D10W10WA·MGA10/12A·ST.13/12H·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.571.150.620.710.53
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.501.00--
vs Similar (23)0.830.651.220.670.570.64
vs Weaker (5)1.400.001.500.001.330.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D12L03L10W01L30W01L11D12LH·ST.10/12H·MGA13/12A·SWI21/12A·SIR10/01H·FGU18/01H·GUD31/01A·MTA08/02H·ZUR14/02H·SWI22/02H·BAL28/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.870.780.780.751.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.671.000.800.900.501.12
vs Weaker (12)0.920.670.750.621.250.75
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L02L31W21W10W10W10W02LA·MGA10/12A·ST.13/12H·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.170.621.150.821.18
vs Stronger (2)1.501.001.501.00--
vs Similar (23)0.351.170.221.220.431.14
vs Weaker (5)2.201.201.501.002.671.33
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (6)
€2m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
PH wins
1
Draws
3
MEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pietà Hotspurs vs Melita · H/A from PH
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/25AMelita Vs PH3-1
27/04/24AMelita Vs PH5-1
09/03/24HPH Vs Melita0-1
24/09/23HPH Vs Melita2-2

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26HPH Vs Balzan FC1-3
22/02/26HPH Vs Swieqi United1-3
14/02/26HPH Vs Zurrieq3-1
08/02/26AMtarfa Vs PH0-6
31/01/26HPH Vs Gudja United1-1
18/01/26HPH Vs Fgura United1-0
10/01/26ASirens Vs PH4-1
21/12/25ASwieqi United Vs PH3-1
13/12/25HPH Vs Mgarr United1-1
10/12/25HPH Vs St. Andrews1-3

MelitaMelita

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26ABirzebbuga Vs MEL2-1
22/02/26HMEL Vs Sirens2-0
14/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MEL0-1
08/02/26HMEL Vs Balzan FC2-0
01/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs MEL2-2
17/01/26AZebbug Rangers Vs MEL1-4
11/01/26HMEL Vs Marsa3-2
21/12/25HMEL Vs Birzebbuga0-2
13/12/25ASt. Andrews Vs MEL1-0
10/12/25AMgarr United Vs MEL1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pietà Hotspurs
Pietà Hotspurs
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.46
HomeWDWLL1.82
AwayWLLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%54%27%
AVG goals3.042.933.18
Over 1.5 %78%75%82%
Over 2.5 %58%54%64%
Over 3.5 %40%39%41%
Scored1.541.751.27
Conceded1.501.181.91
BTTS60%57%64%
Clean Sheet24%32%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.28
HomeWLWWW1.33
AwayLWDWL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%31%
AVG goals3.243.383.12
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %44%46%42%
Scored1.581.621.54
Conceded1.661.751.58
BTTS56%46%65%
Clean Sheet20%29%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1212.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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