The contest between Pietà Hotspurs and Vittoriosa Stars is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 40%. A draw sits at 26% and an away win at 33%, so no side is a clear favourite. The expected total of 3.0 goals and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (12.2%) suggest a balanced affair. Pietà Hotspurs, playing at home against a team of similar strength, have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Vittoriosa Stars, on the road, have managed 1.55 goals for and 2.18 against. Recent form adds nuance: Pietà remain unbeaten in their last five (DWWDW) after a 2-2 draw with St. Andrews, while Vittoriosa have slipped after two straight losses, losing 2-3 to Gudja United. The model’s selections underline a low-scoring, home-side advantage narrative: Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Under 5.5 (91.3%), Home +2 handicap (84.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (82.5%), and Over 1.5 (81.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pietà Hotspurs win
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars win
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pietà Hotspurs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.57
1.76
1.29
2.08
1.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.84
1.70
1.40
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (11)
2.27
1.09
1.86
1.14
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
0.94
1.31
1.57
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.80
0.78
1.33
1.55
2.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
Pietà Hotspurs goals ↓
Vittoriosa Stars goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.8%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
1
6.6%
12%
7.9%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.2%
8.8%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.3%
4.7%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pietà Hotspurs goals (down), columns = Vittoriosa Stars goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.64 points better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.73 goals better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Pietà Hotspurs is 0.05 goals worse than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pietà Hotspurs or Draw
66.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
33%
covers Pietà Hotspurs + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs or Vittoriosa Stars
73.7%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
33%
covers Pietà Hotspurs + Vittoriosa Stars
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vittoriosa Stars
59.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
33%
covers Draw + Vittoriosa Stars
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pietà Hotspurs, so a minus line means Pietà Hotspurs give that many goals of a start and Vittoriosa Stars receive them. At -1, Pietà Hotspurs must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pietà Hotspurs win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pietà Hotspurs)
Pietà Hotspurs -2
8.5%
Draw -2
12.4%
Vittoriosa Stars +2
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pietà Hotspurs)
Pietà Hotspurs -1
21.0%
Draw -1
19.5%
Vittoriosa Stars +1
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pietà Hotspurs)
Pietà Hotspurs +1
66.8%
Draw +1
17.4%
Vittoriosa Stars -1
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pietà Hotspurs)
Pietà Hotspurs +2
84.2%
Draw +2
10.0%
Vittoriosa Stars -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pietà Hotspurs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.94
0.41
0.77
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.70
0.40
0.78
1.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.36
1.29
0.43
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pietà Hotspurs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.93
0.82
0.88
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
1.05
1.00
1.00
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.73
0.57
0.71
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.56
0.56
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.90
0.50
0.60
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.60
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs