This Bulgaria: Second League match between Pirin Blagoevgrad and CSKA Sofia II on August 3rd is finely balanced, with Pirin Blagoevgrad's recent form a major storyline. After 4 straight defeats, Pirin Blagoevgrad has been struggling, but they'll be looking to bounce back against CSKA Sofia II, who are coming off a win.
The model has identified CSKA Sofia II as the favourite to win, with a 36% chance of victory, making it the model's selection. Pirin Blagoevgrad has a 34% chance of winning at home, while a draw is 30% likely. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely score of 1-1, occurring 14.2% of the time.
CSKA Sofia II has been scoring an average of 1 goal when playing away against similar opponents, while conceding an average of 1.56 goals. Pirin Blagoevgrad has been scoring an average of 1.25 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding an average of 0.5 goals.
The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5, which is 76.4% likely to hit, and Over 1.5, which is 71.9% likely to hit. The model's pick for the match result is Away win.
Results analysis
Pirin Blagoevgrad's win extends their run of 5 consecutive matches, though they were coming off 4 straight defeats. The final score was 0-3 in favour of Pirin Blagoevgrad. The model correctly predicted an away win, as CSKA Sofia II's recent away form showed they scored 1.0 goals on average and conceded 1.56. The model's selection of CSKA Sofia II to win had a 36% pre-match probability. The model's call was correct. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 76.4%. Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a 71.9% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pirin Blagoevgrad win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.18
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.40
1xBet
3.37
Bet365
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.13
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
CSKA Sofia II win✓ Hit
36.4%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.08
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.55
SBO
2.19
Dafabet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.07
0.86
1.38
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
0.75
1.25
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.50
1.20
0.70
1.58
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.90
2.00
0.53
1.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.77
0.67
0.33
1.86
1.14
vs Weaker (17)
2.18
1.00
2.89
0.67
1.38
1.38
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.28+1.1%
Under 1.5
28.1%
@ 3.11-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.96-2.0%
Under 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.73+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
888Sport
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.6%
@ 3.40-3.2%
Under 3.5
76.4%
@ 1.24+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
888Sport
3.60
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
@ 1.78+0.1%
No
48.5%
@ 1.89-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
No
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.76+7.5%
0-0
9.8%@ 8.53+5.2%
0-1
9.4%@ 6.42+3.4%
1-0
8.9%@ 8.44+4.3%
1-2
8.1%@ 7.96+3.3%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.28+4.0%
0-2
6.7%@ 8.99+2.4%
2-0
6.2%@ 14.91+3.6%
Pirin Blagoevgrad goals ↓
CSKA Sofia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
9.4%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.9%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.2%
7.8%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pirin Blagoevgrad goals (down), columns = CSKA Sofia II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad is 2.00 points worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Pirin Blagoevgrad is 1.71 goals worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals scored per game (0.43 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Pirin Blagoevgrad is 2.43 goals worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals conceded per game (3.43 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.64
0.07
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.59
0.70
0.00
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.73
0.40
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.54
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.59
1.22
0.44
0.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.43
0.79
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.91
0.50
0.70
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.27
0.13
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.23
0.67
0.00
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.41
1.67
0.22
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.4%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.28
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+1.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pirin Blagoevgrad · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Martin Georgiev33%
Ivan Tasev30%
Aymen Souda29%
Arnaud Luzayadio20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov10%
Hugo Komano10%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dmytro Semeniv67%
Georgi Varbanov60%
Boris Tyutyukov50%
Hristo Popadiyn43%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov40%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Nikolay Bodurov25%
Modou Diagne25%
Evgeni Georgiev25%
Ivan Tasev20%
Ayoub Abou Oulam20%
Danylo Polonskyi17%
Aymen Souda14%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Stanislav Kostov11%
Maksym Kovalov11%
Hugo Komano10%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Asen Donchev0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Asen Donchev25%
Hugo Komano20%
Georgi Varbanov20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ivan Tasev10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Aymen Souda0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Tasev20%
Aymen Souda14%
Hugo Komano10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Pirin Blagoevgrad and CSKA Sofia II have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Pirin Blagoevgrad and CSKA Sofia II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Pirin Blagoevgrad and CSKA Sofia II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Pirin Blagoevgrad and CSKA Sofia II have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha