Pirin Blagoevgrad face Fratria in a match the model favours for an away win, with a 49% chance of victory for the visitors. The overall shape of the game is a modestly low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.6 goals and the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 13.3%. Pirin’s home form has been bleak, having lost their last five matches and being hammered 0-7 by Nesebar, yet they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similarly matched opponents. Fratria, on the other hand, come off a draw and have scored 1.1 goals while conceding 1.0 in away games against comparable sides.
The probabilities for the match result are 24% home win, 28% draw, and 49% away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Under 5.5 at 95.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 91.6%, Away +2 handicap at 91.0%, and Under 4.5 at 88.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pirin Blagoevgrad win
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fratria win
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.77
0.93
1.13
0.80
2.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
1.88
1.17
1.08
0.85
2.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
2.00
0.87
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.95
1.92
0.92
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
2.33
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
0-1
10.9%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
1-0
5.7%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.5%
Pirin Blagoevgrad goals ↓
Fratria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
11%
10%
5.7%
2.4%
1
5.7%
13%
9.7%
5.4%
2.3%
2
3.3%
5.5%
4.6%
2.6%
1.1%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pirin Blagoevgrad goals (down), columns = Fratria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad is 2.00 points worse than Fratria in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Pirin Blagoevgrad is 0.86 goals worse than Fratria in terms of goals scored per game (0.43 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Pirin Blagoevgrad is 2.86 goals worse than Fratria in terms of goals conceded per game (3.43 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Draw
46.8%
Avg Implied -
20%
27%
53%
covers Pirin Blagoevgrad + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Fratria
73.5%
Avg Implied -
20%
27%
53%
covers Pirin Blagoevgrad + Fratria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fratria
79.7%
Avg Implied -
20%
27%
53%
covers Draw + Fratria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5
Over
61.5%
Under
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pirin Blagoevgrad, so a minus line means Pirin Blagoevgrad give that many goals of a start and Fratria receive them. At -1, Pirin Blagoevgrad must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pirin Blagoevgrad win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pirin Blagoevgrad)
Pirin Blagoevgrad -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.4%
Fratria +2
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pirin Blagoevgrad)
Pirin Blagoevgrad -1
7.4%
Draw -1
12.9%
Fratria +1
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pirin Blagoevgrad)
Pirin Blagoevgrad +1
46.8%
Draw +1
23.5%
Fratria -1
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pirin Blagoevgrad)
Pirin Blagoevgrad +2
70.3%
Draw +2
16.7%
Fratria -2
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.53
0.20
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.68
0.67
0.25
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.17
0.40
0.93
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
1.20
0.50
0.83
0.46
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.13
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
1.17
0.42
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pirin Blagoevgrad · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Martin Georgiev33%
Ivan Tasev30%
Aymen Souda29%
Arnaud Luzayadio20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov10%
Hugo Komano10%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dmytro Semeniv67%
Georgi Varbanov60%
Boris Tyutyukov50%
Hristo Popadiyn43%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov40%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Nikolay Bodurov25%
Modou Diagne25%
Evgeni Georgiev25%
Ivan Tasev20%
Ayoub Abou Oulam20%
Danylo Polonskyi17%
Aymen Souda14%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Stanislav Kostov11%
Maksym Kovalov11%
Hugo Komano10%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Asen Donchev0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Asen Donchev25%
Hugo Komano20%
Georgi Varbanov20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ivan Tasev10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Aymen Souda0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Tasev20%
Aymen Souda14%
Hugo Komano10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Pirin Blagoevgrad's squad is €1m less valuable than Fratria's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Pirin Blagoevgrad and Fratria have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Pirin Blagoevgrad and Fratria have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Pirin Blagoevgrad and Fratria have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha