Plymouth are favoured to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 26% draw probability and a 25% chance of a Bradford victory. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% chance. Plymouth’s home form shows they score and concede 1.86 goals against similar opposition, while Bradford’s away record against similar teams is 1.0 scored and 1.57 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%, edge 3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%, edge 4%), Under 6.5 (97.3%, edge 2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%, edge 4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%, edge 4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.6%, edge 5%) and Under 5.5 (92.9%, edge 3%). Plymouth come off a defeat to Coventry, while Bradford enter on a three-game winning streak.
Results analysis
Plymouth’s win extends their recent run, ending the last five with a 2-0 triumph over Bradford. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 49% probability, and it proved correct as the final score confirmed a Plymouth victory. The predicted 2-0 result matched the actual outcome, and the 2-goal margin was in line with the model’s expectations. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, and Under 5.5 at 92.9%. The model’s selections performed consistently across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Plymouth win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied 42.9% · @ 2.17
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Betano
2.20
Dafabet
2.19
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.43
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.56
Dafabet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Bradford win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.12
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Betano
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Plymouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.30
1.81
1.62
2.21
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
2.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.29
1.86
1.86
2.29
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
1.93
1.13
1.75
1.12
2.14
1.14
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bradford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bradford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.07
0.53
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.11
1.08
0.62
1.00
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
@ 1.24+4.0%
Under 1.5
20.8%
@ 3.75-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.99
Superbet
3.85
Unibet
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.78+1.9%
Under 2.5
45.3%
@ 1.99-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Under
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
@ 2.89+0.2%
Under 3.5
67.6%
@ 1.37-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.4%
@ 1.63+0.6%
No
42.6%
@ 2.14-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
No
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.25+5.2%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.16+4.1%
1-0
8.5%@ 8.02+3.0%
2-0 ✓
8.3%@ 10.66+4.0%
0-0
6.8%@ 10.88+2.7%
1-2
6.6%@ 10.06+2.1%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.83+1.8%
0-1
5.5%@ 9.82+0.9%
Plymouth goals ↓
Bradford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.5%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
1
8.5%
12%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.6%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.7%
5.5%
3.2%
1.2%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.3%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Plymouth goals (down), columns = Bradford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Plymouth is 0.02 points worse than Bradford in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Plymouth is 0.42 goals better than Bradford in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Plymouth is 0.27 goals worse than Bradford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Plymouth is 2.5 percentage points worse than Bradford in terms of average possession (48% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Plymouth
For 6.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bradford
For 7.1 · Against 5.5 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Plymouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.6
11.5
4.8
4.8
4.8
24.5
24.0
25.1
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
34.0
34.0
-
vs Similar (26)
10.9
10.2
11.5
4.6
4.5
4.6
23.6
23.8
23.5
vs Weaker (23)
11.5
11.4
11.5
5.2
5.2
5.1
25.0
23.3
26.9
% over line
71%
60%
83%
74%
76%
72%
67%
60%
75%
% under line
29%
40%
17%
26%
24%
28%
33%
40%
25%
This opponent (Bradford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bradford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.9
9.4
4.0
4.2
3.8
24.5
24.6
24.3
vs Stronger (3)
12.7
19.0
9.5
2.3
2.0
2.5
20.0
16.0
22.0
vs Similar (45)
9.9
10.5
9.4
4.3
4.4
4.1
25.0
25.4
24.5
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
12.0
-
1.0
2.0
0.0
16.0
16.0
-
% over line
55%
60%
50%
60%
64%
56%
73%
80%
67%
% under line
45%
40%
50%
40%
36%
44%
27%
20%
33%
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.3
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
10.9
Wigan
10.6
Bromley
10.4
Luton
10.4
Blackpool
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Peterboro
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Stockport
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.0
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Luton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.7
Bradford
24.6
Stevenage
24.6
Plymouth
24.5
Huddersfield
24.2
Luton
23.8
Peterboro
23.7
Leyton Orient
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Doncaster
22.5
Reading
22.4
Leicester
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Burton
22.2
Sheffield Weds
21.9
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
20.9
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
@ 1.53-3.4%
Under 9.5
43.1%
@ 2.32+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.29
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.0%
Under 3.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.5%
Under 21.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Plymouth or Draw✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 70.0% · @ 1.33
Edge
+5.1%
49%
26%
25%
covers Plymouth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Plymouth or Bradford✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.7%
49%
26%
25%
covers Plymouth + Bradford
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Bradford✗ Miss
51.1%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.64
Edge
-5.8%
49%
26%
25%
covers Draw + Bradford
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Plymouth over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.8%
@ 1.20+4.4%
Under
18.2%
@ 4.13-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.28
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Plymouth over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 2.03+4.8%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.73-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Under
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Plymouth over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 4.24+2.5%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.19-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Plymouth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 9.50-0.5%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.04+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.20
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Bradford over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.8%
@ 1.32-1.8%
Under
31.2%
@ 3.15+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Bradford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.4%
@ 2.58-3.7%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.46+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Superbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bradford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 6.18-3.8%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.09+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.05
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
Bradford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 15.33-3.1%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Plymouth, so a minus line means Plymouth give that many goals of a start and Bradford receive them. At -1, Plymouth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Plymouth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Plymouth)Actual: Draw
Plymouth -2
11.8%
@ 8.50+1.3%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 6.02+0.4%
Bradford +2
73.0%
@ 1.20-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Away
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Plymouth)Actual: Plymouth
Plymouth -1
27.0%
@ 3.92+4.4%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.81-1.5%
Bradford +1
51.1%
@ 1.65-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Unibet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Handicap +1 (Plymouth)Actual: Plymouth
Plymouth +1
75.1%
@ 1.33+7.7%
Draw +1
14.6%
@ 4.83-4.0%
Bradford -1
10.3%
@ 6.40-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
Handicap +2 (Plymouth)Actual: Plymouth
Plymouth +2
89.7%
@ 1.09+7.6%
Draw +2
7.1%
@ 8.14-3.9%
Bradford -2
3.2%
@ 13.15-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.20
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Marathonbet
6.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Plymouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.62
0.94
1.29
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.57
0.71
1.00
1.43
0.14
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.75
1.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bradford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bradford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.53
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.26
0.56
0.31
0.38
0.21
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.7%
@ 1.34-1.8%
Under 0.5
32.3%
@ 3.05+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.57-3.5%
Under 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.45+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
BetVictor
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 6.33-4.3%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.09+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Plymouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 1.86-1.1%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.85+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Plymouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 5.24-5.4%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.12+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.20
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Plymouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 14.00-4.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Bradford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.5%
@ 2.17-4.4%
Under
61.5%
@ 1.62+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bradford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 6.94-3.9%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.07+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.90
10Bet
6.50
Under
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Bradford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 20.83-2.6%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Plymouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.57
1.19
0.69
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.71
1.14
0.86
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.33
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bradford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bradford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.73
0.20
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.56
0.77
0.23
0.79
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.20-0.9%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 4.11+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.4%
@ 1.97-5.0%
Under 1.5
57.6%
@ 1.77+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Unibet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.7%
@ 3.98-6.6%
Under 2.5
83.3%
@ 1.21+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.98
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Plymouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.9%
@ 1.63-2.9%
Under
46.1%
@ 2.15+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
1.98
Plymouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 3.89-5.6%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.21+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Plymouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 9.62-6.0%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bradford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 1.81-5.5%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.89+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Bradford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 5.07-3.1%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.13+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.20
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bradford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 14.50-3.7%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.07
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.09
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.07
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.8%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.2%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.6%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
1.33
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.0%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Plymouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julio Pleguezuelo25%
Alex Hartridge25%
Will Evans20%
Xavier Amaechi20%
H. White20%
Aribim Pepple20%
M. Ross0%
W. Harding0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
M. Sorinola0%
C. Watts0%
Bradley Ibrahim0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavier Amaechi40%
Bradley Ibrahim25%
W. Harding20%
Will Evans20%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
M. Sorinola0%
H. White0%
Aribim Pepple0%
C. Watts0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. White40%
Tyreeq Bakinson33%
Bradley Ibrahim25%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
W. Harding0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Will Evans0%
Xavier Amaechi0%
M. Sorinola0%
Aribim Pepple0%
C. Watts0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Curtis25%
Will Evans20%
Aribim Pepple20%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
W. Harding0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
Xavier Amaechi0%
M. Sorinola0%
H. White0%
C. Watts0%
Bradley Ibrahim0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Bradford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aden Baldwin50%
W. Swan20%
B. Pointon20%
M. Gillesphey0%
I. Touray0%
N. Powell0%
C. Connolly0%
M. Pennington0%
K. Jackson0%
Josh Neufville0%
A. Sarcevic0%
A. Phillips0%
J. Beesley0%
Jon McCracken0%
R. Welch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Pennington25%
I. Touray20%
C. Connolly20%
M. Gillesphey0%
N. Powell0%
K. Jackson0%
Josh Neufville0%
A. Sarcevic0%
A. Phillips0%
Aden Baldwin0%
J. Beesley0%
Jon McCracken0%
R. Welch0%
W. Swan0%
B. Pointon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Pennington25%
C. Connolly20%
M. Gillesphey0%
I. Touray0%
N. Powell0%
K. Jackson0%
Josh Neufville0%
A. Sarcevic0%
A. Phillips0%
Aden Baldwin0%
J. Beesley0%
Jon McCracken0%
R. Welch0%
W. Swan0%
B. Pointon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Beesley40%
R. Welch25%
N. Powell20%
W. Swan20%
M. Gillesphey0%
I. Touray0%
C. Connolly0%
M. Pennington0%
K. Jackson0%
Josh Neufville0%
A. Sarcevic0%
A. Phillips0%
Aden Baldwin0%
Jon McCracken0%
B. Pointon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Plymouth's squad is €6m more valuable than Bradford's (€13m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Plymouth's attack is €1m more valuable than Bradford's (€4m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Plymouth's midfield is €1m more valuable than Bradford's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Plymouth's defence is €3m more valuable than Bradford's (€6m vs €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe