Podbeskidzie face Pogoń Siedlce with the model favouring an away win. The expected total goals hover around 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% chance. Podbeskidzie, playing at home against a stronger side, average 1.07 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Pogoń Siedlce, on the road, have a stronger away form, having won their last match 2-0. The probability of a home win is 23%, a draw 27%, and an away win 49%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.6%), Away +2 handicap (91.2%), and Under 4.5 (87.6%). The model’s selection reflects a low-scoring encounter with a slight edge for Pogoń Siedlce.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Podbeskidzie win
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Podbeskidzie
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.73
1.13
1.20
0.87
2.27
vs Stronger (29)
0.97
1.79
1.07
1.29
0.87
2.27
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Siedlce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.33
1.12
1.12
0.71
1.57
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
1.30
1.15
0.92
0.50
1.80
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.43
1.00
2.00
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
9.3%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
6.1%
1-3
5.0%
Podbeskidzie goals ↓
Pogoń Siedlce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
11%
9.3%
4.9%
1.9%
1
6.4%
13%
9.5%
5.0%
2.0%
2
3.9%
6.1%
4.8%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.3%
2.1%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Podbeskidzie goals (down), columns = Pogoń Siedlce goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Podbeskidzie is 0.50 points worse than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Podbeskidzie is 0.17 goals better than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Podbeskidzie is 0.67 goals worse than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Podbeskidzie or Draw
50.8%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
49%
covers Podbeskidzie + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie or Pogoń Siedlce
72.5%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
49%
covers Podbeskidzie + Pogoń Siedlce
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
76.8%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
49%
covers Draw + Pogoń Siedlce
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Podbeskidzie, so a minus line means Podbeskidzie give that many goals of a start and Pogoń Siedlce receive them. At -1, Podbeskidzie must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Podbeskidzie win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Podbeskidzie)
Podbeskidzie -2
2.5%
Draw -2
6.4%
Pogoń Siedlce +2
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Podbeskidzie)
Podbeskidzie -1
8.9%
Draw -1
14.3%
Pogoń Siedlce +1
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Podbeskidzie)
Podbeskidzie +1
50.8%
Draw +1
22.9%
Pogoń Siedlce -1
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Podbeskidzie)
Podbeskidzie +2
73.7%
Draw +2
15.4%
Pogoń Siedlce -2
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Podbeskidzie
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.00
0.33
0.53
0.20
1.47
vs Stronger (29)
0.24
1.03
0.29
0.57
0.20
1.47
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Siedlce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.48
0.54
0.23
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Podbeskidzie
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (29)
0.72
0.76
0.79
0.71
0.67
0.80
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Siedlce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.75
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.71
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Stal Rzeszów