Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and ŁKS Łódź face off in a tightly contested I Liga fixture, with the model favouring a home win at 37 %. The draw probability sits at 27 % and the away side’s 35 % chance keeps the contest finely balanced. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals at a 25 % likelihood. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13 % probability, underscoring the evenly matched nature of the teams.
At home, Pogoń averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.09 conceded against similar opposition, while ŁKS, on the road, posts 1.82 scored and 1.18 conceded. This parity reflects the model’s balanced odds.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2 %), Under 5.5 (93.2 %), Under 4.5 (84.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (83.4 %) and Home +2 handicap (83.2 %). Each selection carries its own probability, with no overlap of match-result percentages.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.36
1.50
1.25
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.56
1.38
1.54
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ŁKS Łódź
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.27
1.81
1.31
1.29
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.27
1.71
1.43
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
4.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
6.1%
0-2
5.9%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals ↓
ŁKS Łódź goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.5%
5.9%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.7%
13%
8.2%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.1%
8.4%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.8%
3.9%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals (down), columns = ŁKS Łódź goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 0.17 points better than ŁKS Łódź in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and ŁKS Łódź are level in goals scored per game (both 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and ŁKS Łódź are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Draw
64.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
36%
covers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or ŁKS Łódź
72.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
36%
covers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki + ŁKS Łódź
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
63.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
36%
covers Draw + ŁKS Łódź
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, so a minus line means Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki give that many goals of a start and ŁKS Łódź receive them. At -1, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -2
6.3%
Draw -2
11.0%
ŁKS Łódź +2
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -1
17.4%
Draw -1
19.1%
ŁKS Łódź +1
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +1
64.5%
Draw +1
18.8%
ŁKS Łódź -1
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +2
83.3%
Draw +2
10.7%
ŁKS Łódź -2
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.74
0.54
0.54
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ŁKS Łódź
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.75
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.62
0.64
0.86
0.42
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.81
0.85
1.00
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ŁKS Łódź
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.06
0.56
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.65
1.07
0.57
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ŁKS Łódź · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dani Ramirez28%
Stipe Jurić21%
Kay Tejan21%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Engjell Hoti14%
Artemijus Tutyškinas9%
Piotr Janczukowicz7%
Antoni Mlynarczyk6%
Pirulo5%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Letniowski38%
Riza Durmisi36%
Adam Marciniak29%
Dawid Arndt29%
Adrien Louveau27%
Artemijus Tutyškinas27%
Oskar Koprowski25%
Pirulo24%
Michał Mokrzycki21%
Kay Tejan21%
Rahil Mammadov19%
Marcin Flis19%
Engjell Hoti17%
Nacho Monsalve17%
Levent Gülen17%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Dani Ramirez12%
Thiago Ceijas12%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Aleksander Bobek12%
Piotr Janczukowicz11%
Kamil Dankowski10%
Bartosz Szeliga10%
Stipe Jurić5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Anton Fase0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrian Małachowski17%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Kay Tejan10%
Riza Durmisi9%
Michał Mokrzycki7%
Kamil Dankowski7%
Dani Ramirez6%
Levent Gülen6%
Adrien Louveau5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Piotr Janczukowicz4%
Bartosz Szeliga3%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Husein Balić0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Pirulo0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrian Małachowski17%
Kay Tejan14%
Marcin Flis12%
Pirulo10%
Dani Ramirez9%
Husein Balić8%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Piotr Janczukowicz0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Antoni Mlynarczyk0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's squad is €2m less valuable than ŁKS Łódź's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's attack is €1m less valuable than ŁKS Łódź's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and ŁKS Łódź have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and ŁKS Łódź have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →