Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Puszcza Niepołomice Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026

Time: 17:30

Final 1-0

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

37%

27%

36%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Puszcza Niepołomice

Poland: I Liga

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

This match between Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Puszcza Niepołomice is finely balanced, with Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki on a 3-game winning run, having beaten Miedz Legnica 1-0 in their last encounter. However, Puszcza Niepołomice comes into this match having just secured a 3-1 win over Odra Opole. The model predicts a home win, identifying it as the most likely result.

The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the average number of goals expected being 2.9 per match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.6%. The home side, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, has a strong home form, averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match against similar opponents. In contrast, Puszcza Niepołomice's away form is less impressive, averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per match against similar opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 37%. The draw is predicted to occur 27% of the time, while the away win is expected 36% of the time. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 80% probability.

Results analysis

Today's results marked a tough day for our selections, with several missed despite their probabilities. The win extends Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's run to 4 games undefeated, following a 3-game winning streak. The final score was 1-0 in favour of the home team, resulting in a home win. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki were the model's selection, with a pre-match probability of 37%. The model's call was correct, as it predicted the home win.

The model's selection, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, was the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 37%. However, the model also suggested Over 1.5 goals, which had an 80% probability of occurring but ultimately missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win✓ Hit

36.8%

Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.19

Edge

-4.7%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.33

Unibet

2.25

Superbet

2.25

Betano

2.22

Dafabet

2.21

Draw✗ Miss

27.0%

Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.29

Edge

-0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

3.45

Pinnacle

3.44

Betfair

3.40

10Bet

3.40

BetVictor

3.40

Puszcza Niepołomice win✗ Miss

36.2%

Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 2.96

Edge

+5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

3.10

1xBet

3.04

Pinnacle

3.04

888Sport

3.00

Betano

3.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.9

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.37	1.60	1.57	1.57	1.19	1.62
vs Stronger (3)	1.67	2.33	1.00	2.50	3.00	2.00
vs Similar (23)	1.35	1.52	1.90	1.30	0.92	1.69
vs Weaker (4)	1.25	1.50	0.50	2.00	2.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	17% (-8pp vs league)

This opponent (Puszcza Niepołomice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Puszcza Niepołomice

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.1

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.30	1.13	1.33	1.07	1.27	1.20
vs Stronger (3)	1.00	2.67	0.00	3.00	1.50	2.50
vs Similar (25)	1.32	1.04	1.31	1.00	1.33	1.08
vs Weaker (2)	1.50	0.00	3.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	23% (-2pp vs league)

This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

80.0%

@ 1.22+4.4%

Under 1.5

20.0%

@ 3.78-4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Betano

1.24

Unibet

1.23

BetVictor

1.22

Under

Pinnacle

4.20

Betfair

4.00

BetVictor

3.80

Superbet

3.80

888Sport

3.75

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

55.9%

@ 1.75+2.6%

Under 2.5

44.1%

@ 1.99-2.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.80

SBO

1.79

10Bet

1.77

Unibet

1.76

Pinnacle

1.76

Under

Pinnacle

2.09

SBO

2.05

Betano

2.05

1xBet

2.00

Betfair

2.00

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

33.5%

@ 2.82+0.7%

Under 3.5

66.5%

@ 1.37-0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

3.00

10Bet

2.95

888Sport

2.90

Betfair

2.88

Unibet

2.88

Under

Betano

1.42

Pinnacle

1.42

Superbet

1.39

1xBet

1.38

Marathonbet

1.38

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

60.1%

@ 1.60+2.6%

39.9%

@ 2.17-2.6%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.67

888Sport

1.62

Superbet

1.62

William Hil

1.62

Unibet

1.61

Betano

2.25

1xBet

2.23

Betfair

2.20

BetVictor

2.20

Marathonbet

2.19

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

12.6%@ 6.02+5.3%

2-1

8.4%@ 8.22+3.0%

1-2

8.4%@ 9.71+3.8%

1-0 ✓

6.8%@ 8.22+1.4%

0-1

6.7%@ 9.69+2.1%

0-0

6.5%@ 10.19+2.2%

2-2

6.1%@ 11.33+2.2%

2-0

5.8%@ 10.76+1.7%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals ↓

	Puszcza Niepołomice goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	6.7%	5.7%	2.8%	1.0%
1	6.8%	13%	8.4%	4.0%	1.5%
2	5.8%	8.4%	6.1%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.8%	4.1%	3.0%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.0%	1.5%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals (down), columns = Puszcza Niepołomice goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Lechia Gdansk

1.96

Arka Gdynia

1.58

ŁKS Łódź

1.57

Ruch Chorzów

1.56

Chrobry Głogów

1.56

Miedz Legnica

1.53

Polonia Warszawa

1.51

Nieciecza

1.44

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.44

Polonia Bytom

1.38

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.32

Odra Opole

1.29

Stal Rzeszów

1.26

Pogoń Siedlce

1.06

Stal Mielec

1.06

Unia Skierniewice

0.82

Podbeskidzie

0.77

Warta Poznań

0.70

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 0.12 points worse than Puszcza Niepołomice in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Lechia Gdansk

2.14

Arka Gdynia

1.72

Polonia Bytom

1.65

ŁKS Łódź

1.63

Ruch Chorzów

1.59

Nieciecza

1.58

Polonia Warszawa

1.54

Miedz Legnica

1.53

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.50

Stal Mielec

1.50

Stal Rzeszów

1.44

Chrobry Głogów

1.39

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.32

Odra Opole

1.00

Pogoń Siedlce

0.97

Unia Skierniewice

0.90

Podbeskidzie

0.84

Warta Poznań

0.76

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 0.18 goals better than Puszcza Niepołomice in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.32).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Lechia Gdansk

1.04

Chrobry Głogów

1.08

Odra Opole

1.18

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.18

Pogoń Siedlce

1.26

Arka Gdynia

1.29

Ruch Chorzów

1.35

ŁKS Łódź

1.40

Nieciecza

1.41

Polonia Bytom

1.47

Polonia Warszawa

1.49

Miedz Legnica

1.56

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.59

Stal Rzeszów

1.76

Stal Mielec

1.82

Unia Skierniewice

2.46

Podbeskidzie

2.64

Warta Poznań

2.92

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 0.41 goals worse than Puszcza Niepołomice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.18).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	80.0%	1.22	10Bet 1.25	Bet365 1.25	Betano 1.24	Unibet 1.23	BetVictor 1.22	+4.4%	✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (27)

€26m

AG (29)

€9m

NIE (25)

€6m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (12)

€18m

AG (9)

€3m

NIE (10)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (1)

€4m

AG (8)

€4m

NIE (7)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (14)

€5m

AG (12)

€3m

NIE (8)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Puszcza Niepołomice · H/A from PGM

Date	H/A	Game	Score
06/12/25	H	PGM Vs Puszcza Niepołomice	1-1
26/07/25	A	Puszcza Niepołomice Vs PGM	1-1

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	A	Lechia Gdansk Vs PGM	0-3
24/05/26	A	Slask Wroclaw Vs PGM	0-0
17/05/26	H	PGM Vs Tychy 71	0-0
11/05/26	A	Odra Opole Vs PGM	3-1
07/05/26	A	ŁKS Łódź Vs PGM	3-2
02/05/26	H	PGM Vs Wieczysta Kraków	1-4
27/04/26	A	Ruch Chorzów Vs PGM	2-2
19/04/26	H	PGM Vs Pogoń Siedlce	0-2
06/04/26	H	PGM Vs Stal Mielec	1-2
20/03/26	A	Górnik Łęczna Vs PGM	3-0

Puszcza Niepołomice

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
26/07/26	H	PN Vs Polonia Warszawa	0-1
24/05/26	A	Miedz Legnica Vs PN	2-1
18/05/26	H	PN Vs ŁKS Łódź	1-0
09/05/26	A	Stal Mielec Vs PN	1-1
01/05/26	H	PN Vs Znicz Pruszków	1-0
24/04/26	A	Wisla Krakow Vs PN	2-2
18/04/26	H	PN Vs Polonia Bytom	2-1
10/04/26	A	Odra Opole Vs PN	1-0
06/04/26	H	PN Vs Polonia Warszawa	2-1
21/03/26	H	PN Vs Slask Wroclaw	1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Poland: I Liga

Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLDDW	1.37
Home	WLLLD	1.65
Away	DLLDW	1.11

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	34%	41%	28%
AVG goals	3.09	3.29	2.89
Over 1.5 %	89%	94%	83%
Over 2.5 %	71%	71%	72%
Over 3.5 %	34%	41%	28%
Scored	1.54	1.88	1.22
Conceded	1.54	1.41	1.67
BTTS	69%	76%	61%
Clean Sheet	17%	18%	17%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Puszcza Niepołomice

Poland: I Liga

Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDWLL	1.16
Home	WWWWL	1.27
Away	WLDDL	1.04

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	28%	31%	25%
AVG goals	2.82	2.69	2.96
Over 1.5 %	84%	77%	92%
Over 2.5 %	54%	50%	58%
Over 3.5 %	24%	19%	29%
Scored	1.28	1.35	1.21
Conceded	1.54	1.35	1.75
BTTS	66%	69%	62%
Clean Sheet	16%	15%	17%
Corners	10.40	10.88	9.86
Cards	5.07	5.62	4.33

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	4	10	75%	2.5	6	1	+5	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.2	-
2	Stal Mielec	4	8	50%	2.0	11	7	+4	4.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	1.8	-
3	Chrobry Głogów	4	7	50%	1.8	8	4	+4	3.0	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	-
4	Miedz Legnica	4	7	50%	1.8	6	2	+4	2.0	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.5	-
5	Polonia Warszawa	4	7	50%	1.8	5	3	+2	2.0	50%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	0.8	-
6	ŁKS Łódź	4	7	50%	1.8	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
7	Arka Gdynia	3	6	67%	2.0	5	2	+3	2.3	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	9	3	4	3	1.7	0.7	-
8	Warta Poznań	4	6	50%	1.5	9	8	+1	4.2	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	2.0	-
9	Nieciecza	4	6	50%	1.5	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	2	2	2	1.5	1.2	-
10	Odra Opole	4	6	50%	1.5	5	5	+0	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
11	Pogoń Siedlce	4	5	25%	1.2	5	5	+0	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
12	Podbeskidzie	4	4	0%	1.0	7	7	+0	3.5	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	-
13	Polonia Bytom	4	4	25%	1.0	9	12	-3	5.2	100%	100%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	3.0	-
14	Ruch Chorzów	4	4	25%	1.0	2	5	-3	1.8	75%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	1.2	-
15	Puszcza Niepołomice	3	3	33%	1.0	3	3	+0	2.0	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
16	Unia Skierniewice	4	3	25%	0.8	4	8	-4	3.0	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	-
17	Stal Rzeszów	4	2	0%	0.5	3	11	-8	3.5	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.8	-
18	Lechia Gdansk	4	1	0%	0.2	2	9	-7	2.8	75%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	26	18	4	5	0.5	2.2	-

Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

← all matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Puszcza Niepołomice Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Puszcza Niepołomice

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Puszcza Niepołomice

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature