Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, on a three-game winning run, hosts Stal Rzeszów, which drew its last match against Stal Mielec. The home side has been scoring at a rate of 1.75 goals per game at home against similarly strong opponents, while conceding 1.42 goals. Stal Rzeszów, meanwhile, averages 1.64 goals scored and 2 goals conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
This match is projected to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.9%. The model's selection for the match result is a home win, with a 50% probability. The model also suggests a home win as its selection, with a 50% probability. The model's selection for over 1.5 goals is the most likely outcome, with a 84.6% probability and a 1% edge.
The probabilities for the match result are 50% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 26% for an away win. The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 26%. The model's selection for over 1.5 goals has a 84.6% probability.
Results analysis
The draw between Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Rzeszów extends the hosts' unbeaten run, with both teams sharing the spoils in a 1-1 scoreline. This result defies the pre-match favourite, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, who were predicted to win with a 50% probability. The model's call on a home win was incorrect.
The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with a predicted probability of 84.6%. The model also suggested that the most likely total goals would be 3, with a 22% probability, although this did not come to fruition.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win✗ Miss
49.7%
Avg Implied 51.4% · @ 1.77
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Dafabet
1.83
Betano
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.73
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.99
Betano
3.85
Dafabet
3.85
10Bet
3.75
Stal Rzeszów win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.75
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.10
Pinnacle
3.94
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Dafabet
3.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.43
1.47
1.47
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.60
0.67
2.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.39
1.82
1.27
0.92
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.93
1.07
1.80
1.47
2.07
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
3.50
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.85
1.08
1.54
1.46
2.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
@ 1.14+3.2%
Under 1.5
15.4%
@ 4.99-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
888Sport
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.22
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.50+1.6%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.40-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.48
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
@ 2.25-0.3%
Under 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.58+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.30
888Sport
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Under
Betfair
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
@ 1.49+1.8%
No
36.0%
@ 2.44-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
888Sport
1.50
William Hil
1.50
1xBet
1.48
No
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.47
William Hil
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
888Sport
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.9%@ 7.27+4.7%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.59+3.5%
2-0
7.0%@ 9.89+2.5%
1-2
6.7%@ 11.70+2.8%
1-0
6.4%@ 9.43+1.6%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.88+2.2%
3-1
6.0%@ 11.23+2.0%
0-0
4.9%@ 15.21+1.9%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals ↓
Stal Rzeszów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.2%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.4%
11%
6.7%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.5%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.5%
6.0%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.1%
2.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals (down), columns = Stal Rzeszów goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 1.17 points better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 1.00 goals better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 1.17 goals better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.70
0.82
0.64
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.53
0.53
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.58
0.46
0.38
0.85
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.87
0.93
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.20
0.67
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.30
0.53
1.27
0.73
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
1.27
0.62
1.15
0.62
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
888Sport
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
+3.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Rzeszów have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's attack is €1m less valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's midfield is €1m more valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Rzeszów have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie