Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance of a home win and a 21% chance of a draw versus Warta Poznań’s 18% win probability. The model’s pick is a home victory, driven by Pogoń’s strong home form against weaker opponents, where they average 0.0 goals scored and concede 2.0, while Warta, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Pogoń, with a 9.6% probability. Recent form adds context: Pogoń remain unbeaten in their last five, drawing 2-2 with Nieciecza, while Warta return from a loss, 1-2 to Miedź Legnica. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Under 7.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.2%), Under 6.5 (93.5%), and Home over 0.5 goals (90.1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
61.7%
Avg Implied 36.2% · @ 2.51
Edge
+25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.71
Betano
2.62
Dafabet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Draw
20.8%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.43
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.66
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Dafabet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Warta Poznań win
17.6%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.44
Edge
-19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.77
SBO
2.52
Dafabet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.36
1.50
1.25
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.56
1.38
1.54
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.53
0.47
1.27
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (29)
0.76
1.59
0.43
1.36
1.07
1.80
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
@ 1.18+8.8%
Under 1.5
12.8%
@ 4.29-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.66
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.8%
@ 1.62+10.6%
Under 2.5
32.2%
@ 2.17-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
BetVictor
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.3%
@ 2.54+9.9%
Under 3.5
53.7%
@ 1.46-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
10Bet
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
@ 1.51+2.5%
No
36.6%
@ 2.36-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
No
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%@ 8.77+4.5%
1-1
9.1%@ 6.44+2.2%
2-0
8.1%@ 13.30+4.7%
3-1
7.4%@ 17.03+4.8%
3-0
6.2%@ 25.30+4.5%
1-0
6.2%@ 9.91+1.7%
2-2
5.7%@ 10.71+1.5%
1-2
4.9%@ 8.63-0.2%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals ↓
Warta Poznań goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
2.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.3%
1
6.2%
9.1%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
2
8.1%
9.6%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
6.2%
7.4%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.6%
4.3%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals (down), columns = Warta Poznań goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 0.50 points better than Warta Poznań in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 0.17 goals worse than Warta Poznań in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 0.83 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Draw
82.4%
Avg Implied 62.9% · @ 1.46
Edge
+19.5%
62%
21%
18%
covers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Warta Poznań
79.2%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.25
Edge
+5.5%
62%
21%
18%
covers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki + Warta Poznań
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or Warta Poznań
38.3%
Avg Implied 63.4% · @ 1.45
Edge
-25.0%
62%
21%
18%
covers Draw + Warta Poznań
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.54
SBO
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5
Over
90.1%
@ 1.22+14.3%
Under
9.9%
@ 3.83-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.15
Pinnacle
4.05
Betano
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5
Over
67.1%
@ 2.09+22.9%
Under
32.9%
@ 1.66-22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5
Over
40.7%
@ 4.54+20.3%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.16-20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 3.5
Over
20.3%
@ 9.99+10.9%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.03-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Betano
8.75
Superbet
8.60
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
@ 1.21-7.3%
Under
30.5%
@ 3.98+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.24
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
@ 2.05-11.9%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.69+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
BetVictor
1.70
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
@ 4.39-9.4%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.18+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.65
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Warta Poznań over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
@ 9.73-6.4%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.04+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, so a minus line means Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki give that many goals of a start and Warta Poznań receive them. At -1, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -2
21.9%
@ 8.58+11.7%
Draw -2
18.5%
@ 6.17+4.4%
Warta Poznań +2
59.6%
@ 1.15-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
8.20
Marathonbet
6.55
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.20
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -1
40.4%
@ 4.55+21.1%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 4.24+0.5%
Warta Poznań +1
38.3%
@ 1.47-21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.15
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Away
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Handicap +1 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +1
82.4%
@ 1.47+21.8%
Draw +1
10.5%
@ 4.38-9.9%
Warta Poznań -1
7.0%
@ 4.70-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.42
Draw
Superbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Away
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Handicap +2 (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +2
93.0%
@ 1.16+14.9%
Draw +2
4.9%
@ 7.20-7.6%
Warta Poznań -2
2.1%
@ 9.65-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Away
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.74
0.54
0.54
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.13
0.67
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (29)
0.34
0.90
0.14
0.71
0.53
1.07
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.29+1.7%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.24-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
William Hil
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 2.36-1.1%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.52+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.45
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.2%
@ 5.58+0.5%
Under 2.5
82.8%
@ 1.12-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Superbet
5.20
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.3%
@ 1.92+7.0%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.79-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.83
Under
Superbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.7%
@ 5.66+1.4%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.10-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.85
Betano
5.30
Superbet
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.5%
@ 13.25-1.6%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.0%
@ 1.89-9.0%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.82+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.75
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.5%
@ 5.47-7.2%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.10+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.80
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 14.62-5.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.81
0.85
1.00
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (29)
0.41
0.69
0.29
0.64
0.53
0.73
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.17+0.3%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 4.47-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.2%
@ 1.83-1.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
@ 1.86+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.1%
@ 3.52-5.2%
Under 2.5
78.9%
@ 1.26+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.6%
@ 1.63+1.9%
Under
41.4%
@ 2.14-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Under
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.7%
@ 4.03-1.2%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.20+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.20
Betano
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
@ 9.12-4.3%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.3%
@ 1.62-7.7%
Under
50.7%
@ 2.15+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.07
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 3.96-9.7%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.20+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 10.12-6.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.03+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.9%
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+6.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+4.3%
Under 6.5
93.5%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-0.8%
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-
+14.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
+7.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
90.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+14.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.2%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+9.4%
Over 1.5
87.2%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
+8.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.20
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+9.7%
Under 5.5
85.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
-3.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.8%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-0.5%
Home or Draw
82.4%
1.46
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
+19.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-1.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
79.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-10.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
-
+0.3%
Home or Away
79.2%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+5.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-
+5.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+1.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+1.7%
Under 4.5
72.6%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-6.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Warta Poznań · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kajetan Szmyt21%
Adam Zreľák14%
Maciej Żurawski14%
Mateusz Kupczak12%
Márton Eppel10%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Stefan Savić7%
Miguel Luís6%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Dario Vizinger3%
Konrad Matuszewski3%
Dawid Szymonowicz3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz31%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos28%
Dario Vizinger28%
Mateusz Kupczak19%
Maciej Żurawski17%
Mohamed Mezghrani17%
Jakub Bartkowski17%
Michał Kopczyński14%
Dawid Szymonowicz13%
Filip Borowski12%
Kajetan Szmyt12%
Jedrzej Grobelny12%
Stefan Savić10%
Konrad Matuszewski10%
Adrian Lis10%
Miguel Luís9%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Bogdan Țîru8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Jakub Kiełb5%
Márton Eppel5%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Vizinger10%
Jakub Kiełb10%
Mohamed Mezghrani8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Konrad Matuszewski7%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Tomas Prikryl5%
Niilo Mäenpää4%
Filip Borowski4%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Stefan Savić3%
Miguel Luís3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Mateusz Kupczak0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Márton Eppel0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Márton Eppel14%
Mateusz Kupczak9%
Adam Zreľák7%
Dario Vizinger7%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz6%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Miguel Luís0%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Tomas Prikryl0%
Stefan Savić0%
Konrad Matuszewski0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's squad is €1m more valuable than Warta Poznań's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Warta Poznań have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Warta Poznań have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Warta Poznań have a similar defence value (both €1m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
PGM wins
0
Draws
0
WP wins
Head-to-head
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań · H/A from PGM
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów